Small Differences make Big Differences.

This is my first foray on this blog into Presidential politics. It however has nothing to do with candidates, it is instead is a quick look back on how a few votes in some states may have changed the entire tenor if not the result of the election. It is time to remember back to the night of the Iowa Caucus’s Gephardt was finished, Dean was very crippled, and Kerry and Edwards were both riding high. This went into New Hampshire, were Kerry was well positioned to take advantage of his victory. Edwards however in a way stumbled in a way that made it difficult for him to recover. Edwards in fact went on to come in 4th in New Hampshire to Wesley Clark. It was an extremely close voter with only some 800 odd votes giving Clark the win. Lets imagine that instead of this tie for Third Edwards had been able to take third place by 2000 votes in a clear if not overwhelming way. 2800 odd votes, changed the dynamic of the race rather than a stumbling Block, New Hampshire might have narrowed the field to just two candidates, with Dean still permanently wounded from his Iowa debacle. In that next round of voting John Kerry was able to win five of seven states, only stumbling in John Edwards’s South Carolina. Now had the scenario played out differently, it is not unreasonable to say John Edwards need for South Carolina prevented him from playing in any of the other states that were available, this is particular note in Oklahoma, were Wesley Clark was able to edge out a roughly 1200 vote win over John Edwards, with Kerry trailing by about 6,000. It is in fact not only possible but also probable that the aforementioned improvement in New Hampshire would have won John Edwards Oklahoma. This is of particular importance, because The Clark campaign was very clear that the Oklahoma win was the reasoned they stayed in the race through the next week into Tennessee and Virginia. This mattered most in Tennessee, where Kerry got only 41% as opposed to the 49% that Edwards/Clark. Edwards would probably still have lost here, but not by the massive margin and an upset would not have been impossible. The next real contest was in Wisconsin, Where Kerry was able to edge Edwards by 6% points, and clinch the nomination. If Edwards had won in Oklahoma and lost more narrowly or even won in Tennessee. it would not have been out of the realm of possibility that Edwards could have used this gained momentum to win Wisconsin, A win in Wisconsin would have changed the dynamics of Super Tuesday, as Kerry used inevitability as his main argument throughout the rest of the campaign, pretty much from Iowa and defiantly from New Hampshire on
This is important, because it shows pretty decisively that what seems like a small difference in vote outcome can have a really big result . It also means, that you, Yes you reader, or anyone can have a real, actual, and sustained difference on a race for the Presidency. You could come up with the 3000-vote idea, either for a policy that can help make a candidate more popular, or a political program, like the College Students who came up with Limo to vote in CT 2, that probably won the election for Joe Courtney. History is decided by those who get in the game, and in America that means you.