I often wonder what value I provide the world by giving it lists of vulnerable Republicans. This is my best an attempt at answer. The Stem Cell Research Bill was Thirty Seven votes short of being veto-proof in the house. There are actually 37 Republicans who voted against it . So if Stem Cell Research is your big issue , these are I believe the members you want to hit the most for it. I might be wrong or right. It is merely my best guess. The point is this is how you move issues, as well just partisanship.[I am a partisan so if you want to beat the 16 Democratic opponents of Stem Cell ask someone else. ] It is useful to know when someone votes against their district if you are trying to mount an issue campaign against them. So without further ado, the Republicans who voted against their district on Stem Cell Research.
Bachmann
Bilirakis
Buchanan
Camp
Chabot
L Diaz-Balart
M. Diaz-Balart
Drake
English
Feeney
Ferguson
Gallegly
Garrett
Hayes
Keller
King [NY]
Kline
Knollenberg
Kuhl
Lahood
Latham
LoBiondo
McCotter
McHugh
Tim Murphy
Renzi
Reynolds
Rogers [MI}
Ros-Lehtinen
Roskam
Ryan
Saxton
Smith[NJ]
Tiberi
Walberg
Walsh
Weller
Wolf
Saturday, January 20, 2007
Friday, January 19, 2007
Rudy Co-Opting Newt or Newt Co-Opting Rudy?
Yesterday Kos, was talking about Rudy, He said the following
“ He's hired some top people, he stole Jim Nussle away from Romney, he appears to have co-opted Gingrich, he's likely to raise great gobs of money (he plans to raise $100M by year's end),”
I however have another more interesting reading of this alliance. Newt Gingrich has been doing a lot of posturing about getting in the 2008 race but almost all of it is posturing. However what if he were to strike an alliance with Rudy that works as follows over the jump.
Rudy has all of the political capital but has the massive liability of being pro-choice and pro-gay rights. Lets for arguments sake he does in fact run and Newt Gingrich were to become a prominent endorser of Rudy. Now you think that might end Newt chance of being President, but in fact it might be his best chance. Newt can ride Rudy’s political capital through the primaries until the Convention. It is however entirely possibly that if Rudy were to well but not too well, he would be mathematically unable to claim the nomination but still have the most delegates. Rudy is in fact the best way to damage both McCain and Romney, because all three share an absolute need to do well in New Hampshire and all three can’t. Even if Rudy were able to squeeze out a bare majority of the delegates it is still possible that the threat of a third party revolt would give rise to the need for another candidate. Who better than Newt Gingrich? Rudy could be given a spot in the new administration or even on the ticket. There is no Republican more respected by all sides of the Republican Party than Newt but slogging through the primaries would be a very difficult thing for him. Why not hitch your wagon with Rudy as means of crushing your other two rivals? Who has a truly better understanding of National Republican Politics, Newt or Rudy? Newt has already been laying the ground work with statements like if a candidate takes up my vision I won’t see the need to run. Rudy has actually been saying similar things. I think Nussle decision to side with Rudy could be the first sign that such an alliance is in the works, and if so. I believe it will be to Newt’s ultimate benefit.
“ He's hired some top people, he stole Jim Nussle away from Romney, he appears to have co-opted Gingrich, he's likely to raise great gobs of money (he plans to raise $100M by year's end),”
I however have another more interesting reading of this alliance. Newt Gingrich has been doing a lot of posturing about getting in the 2008 race but almost all of it is posturing. However what if he were to strike an alliance with Rudy that works as follows over the jump.
Rudy has all of the political capital but has the massive liability of being pro-choice and pro-gay rights. Lets for arguments sake he does in fact run and Newt Gingrich were to become a prominent endorser of Rudy. Now you think that might end Newt chance of being President, but in fact it might be his best chance. Newt can ride Rudy’s political capital through the primaries until the Convention. It is however entirely possibly that if Rudy were to well but not too well, he would be mathematically unable to claim the nomination but still have the most delegates. Rudy is in fact the best way to damage both McCain and Romney, because all three share an absolute need to do well in New Hampshire and all three can’t. Even if Rudy were able to squeeze out a bare majority of the delegates it is still possible that the threat of a third party revolt would give rise to the need for another candidate. Who better than Newt Gingrich? Rudy could be given a spot in the new administration or even on the ticket. There is no Republican more respected by all sides of the Republican Party than Newt but slogging through the primaries would be a very difficult thing for him. Why not hitch your wagon with Rudy as means of crushing your other two rivals? Who has a truly better understanding of National Republican Politics, Newt or Rudy? Newt has already been laying the ground work with statements like if a candidate takes up my vision I won’t see the need to run. Rudy has actually been saying similar things. I think Nussle decision to side with Rudy could be the first sign that such an alliance is in the works, and if so. I believe it will be to Newt’s ultimate benefit.
Thursday, January 18, 2007
The signature post
Second Month of the House races tracking. If anyone has accounts of KOS, MYDD or Swingstate, Please comment. As this is signature post of trying to turn the lasting majority into something besides the pleasure for writing for you guys.
Month 2 of Tracking the Top 50 House Pick up Chances
So this is the second month of tracking the Top 50 House Pick Up Chances in the country. What is the most amazing about a project like this is the amount of new information there already is to switch decisions about races. We have about 7 votes in the House that could be used against certain Republicans in the House . We also have a new DCCC list of where they are looking to go in terms of targeting. In addition to the information from last month I will include change as well reason for change
The Top 50 races
1. MI 7
Republican Tim Walberg
06 Winning Percentage 51%
04 Bush Percentage 54%
Reason for Weakness
Tim Walberg is the most vulnerable Republican member of Congress because running against an opponent in a general election who spent only $ 55,000,. He got just 51% in a 54% Bush District. His defeat of a Congressman Schwarz who was widely liked will cause him problems. If the Democrats can find a centrist in the Schwarz model we should be able to defeat this Freshman.
Change No Change
Reason: Tim Walberg has already cast his lot like the Right Wing Republican we expected including a no vote on the Minimum Wage, the only issue is that lots of Republicans now seem to be circling as well.
2. PA 15
Republican Charlie Dent
06 Winning Percentage 53%
04 Bush Percentage 50%
Reasons for Weakness
Charlie Dent has only been re-elected once in now one of only eight Republicans to hold a seat that John Kerry won . He also was one of only two incumbents in Kerry won districts not to have a well-financed challenger. The fact that he was only able to get 53% under these circumstance means that he is a very good target for defeat.
Change No change
Reason Charlie Dent remains vulnerable and the DCCC now list him a such. This race will remain very hot
3.. FL 8
Republican Ric Keller
06 Winning Percentage 53%
04 Bush Percentage 55%
Reasons for Weakness
You never want to run below the President of Your own Party in your district and this is exactly what happened to Ric Keller. This is particularly bad in a state where Republican loses were less than in other states. His 53% against a good but not great opponent in a peripherally targeted race was trouble enough, but he is now breaking a term limits and already has a republican primary challenger.
Change Up
Reason: On reflection Ric Keller seems even more vulnerable, and his rushing out to oppose Iraq would make sense for someone more vulnerable.
4. NV 3
Republican Jon Porter
06 Winning Percentage 48%
04 Bush Percentage 50%
Reasons for Weakness
As a Member of Congress you never want to be getting less than 50% and that is exactly the position that Jon Porter find himself as he confronts life in the minority. The Democrat was able to get 47% with 5% going else where. If the Democrats can recruit a slightly more experience candidate and Ms. Hafen now counts. This race will be extremely close.
Change Down
Reason: Keller had to move up and therefore Porter had to move down He remains very vulnerable and is DCCC rated as such
5. WA 8
Republican Dave Reichert
06 Winning Percentage ?
04 Bush Percentage 48%
Reasons for Weakness
A two term Congressman from one of eight Kerry won Republican held seats is by definition vulnerable, also a minority member. That he was able to get only 51% in both cycles adds to that vulnerability. This race will be very tight again. The Presidential should be helpful.
Change None
Reason. Reichert remains a Republican in a Democrat district who by an extremely small percentage and who just seems vulnerable
6. AZ 1
Republican Rick Renzi
06 Winning Percentage 51%
04 Bush Percentage 54%
Reasons for Weakness
Hints of corruption, a weak re-election performance including running behind the President of your own party and being a relatively junior member now in the minority these are the challenges now faced by Rick Renzi. This is a member who is beatable.
Change Up
Reason: The DCCC lists it as vulnerable because of ethics issues that alone should make him more vulnerable.
7. CA 4
Republican John Doolittle
06 Winning Percentage 49%
04 Bush Percentage 61%
Reasons for Weakness
A congressperson never wants to get less than 50%, when that is combined with such a massive running behind of party ID It shows a member with a serious problem. The large amount spent on the legal defense fund might be why. If Charlie Brown gives it another shot this could be a race. We sure should make sure it is.
Change Up
Reason: The increased likelihood of Charlie Brown's running again makes Doolittle vulnerable as does the DCCC ranking the district in its ethically challenged catergory.
8. NJ 7
Republican Mike Ferguson
06 Winning Percentage 49%
04 Bush Percentage 53%
Reasons for Weakness
Another Republican under 50% spells danger for him. He also is still a relative junior member just reaching the minority for the first time. Linda Stender should be encouraged to make the challenge again and regardless this can be a very close race. Ferguson's position on social issues are also out of step for the district.
Change Up
Reason: The Democratic Convention in Denver will make beating Marilyn Musgrave more difficult he drop allows this district to move up.
9.NC 8
Republican Robin Hayes
06 Winning Percentage 50%
04 Bush Percentage 54%
Reasons for Weakness
Winning by less than 500 vote against the same opponent who was generally under-funded last time is all one needs to make the top ten list of vulnerable members, I think Larry Kissell should be the first person on the New Blue Majority List.
Change Up
Reason: Same as above
10. CO 4
Republican Marilyn Musgrave
06 Winning Percentage 46%
04 Bush Percentage 58%
Reasons for Weakness
46% is a terrible number for an Incumbent. It means serious problems particularly when your last election performance before was already 7% the President behind that of the President of your own party.
Change Down
Reason: In a traditionally Republican part of a trending Democratic State, CO 4 is likely to re-act slightly against the Democratic Tide. This just make beating Musgrave more difficult and it is more important to win Colorado in the Presidential than beating Marilyn Musgrave.
11. MI 9
Republican Joe Knollenberg
06 Winning Percentage 52%
04 Bush Percentage 51%
Reasons for Weakness
This was probably the worst under-target in the nation besides PA 15 with less reasons for it. The good news however is that Joe Knollenberg now a minority member spent a huge amount of money his campaign money just to hold on. He is also relatively old so a retirement would not be surprising. Either way this seat should be a top priority. Nancy Skinner was a very good candidate that not only the DCCC but us in the Netroots missed as well. If she runs again I think supporting her would be justified.
Change None
Reason, If anything this spot holds the best because it is now a DCCC target.
12. IL 14
Republican Dennis Hastert
06 Winning Percentage 60%
04 Bush Percentage 55%
Reasons for Weakness
How the mighty have fallen. It is quite likely this seat will open up in 08 and if not Dennis Hastert is damaged goods, a bygone relic of an era that is gone. Illinois is also a state trending clearly our way. This is a great chance.
Change None
Reason: Looking at Dennis Hastert's sad face it is hard to believe he will run again and open seats are generally easier to get.
13. PA 18
Republican Tim Murphy
06 Winning Percentage 58%
04 Bush Percentage 54%
Reasons for Weakness
Scandal appears to be rearing itself into this district in a way that helps us. This combined with a district remarkably similar to PA 4th where Melissa Hart was recently beaten. If not for the scandal this district would rank lower but for now it is a prime target
Change Up
Reason: The scandal is now being addressed by the DCCC edging this seat up a spot.
14. OH 16
Republican Ralph Regula
06 Winning Percentage 59%
04 Bush Percentage 54%
Reasons for Weakness
When a nothing challenger holds you under 60% that is a problem. When you are already in your Eighties that is also a problem. When you are about to drop a tremendous amount in power that spells trouble. The Democrats already have a challenger and more will probably emerge.
Change down
Reason The Murphy Scandal moves Regula down a spot no real change.
15 . IL 6
Republican Peter Roskam
06 Winning Percentage 51%
04 Bush Percentage 53%
Reasons for Weakness
This was the DCCC's greatest folly, by choosing a non-local candidate. It allowed the Republicans to frame the race in a way favorable to them and ultimately win it. That said the race was extremely close. A freshman Republican minority member has to beatable. Finding a local candidate will be essential.
Change None
Reason: Roskam has voted like a right winger when his district is far more reasonable. He has to be considered a prime target
16. PA 6
Republican Jim Gelach
06 Winning Percentage 51%
04 Bush Percentage 48%
Reasons for Weakness
51%, three straight elections. It seems as if Jim Gerlach is a survivor which makes him difficult to defeat and yet he clearly has to deal with transition from majority to minority. A good Democratic Candidate will make this a race again and quickly.
Change None
Reason Gerlach is vulnerable for the very same reasons he always has been.
17. NY 25
Republican Jim Walsh
06 Winning Percentage 51%
04 Bush Percentage 48%
Reasons for Weakness
After not having a real challenger in a long time Jim Walsh was faced with the scare of his life. Democrat Dan Maffei was also not as well funded as he could have been. As one of the eight Republican in Kerry won districts. Jim Walsh can expect a real challenge though unlike other members he will be ready for it.
Change None
Reason Same basic reasons, he has been voting with Democrats on everything but stem cell research.
18. NM 1
Republican Heather Wilson
06 Winning Percentage 50%
04 Bush Percentage 48%
Reasons for Weakness
Another absolute squeaker and another chance to take a Republican held seat. Heather Wilson is as slick as they come, though people do seem to think that Patricia Madrid made a late debate error. Regardless, she is vulnerable but difficult to beat.
Change None
Reason She is just a vulnerable as ever but is still as skilled as ever. She is also voting along with Democrats and making noise on Iraq.
19. WY AL
Republican Barbara Cubin
06 Winning Percentage 48%
04 Bush Percentage 69%
Reasons for Weakness
No one likes Barbara Cubin and her extremely weak showing shows, and yet trying to overcome the Republican tilt of Wyoming is extremely difficult, particularly in a Presidential Year. It would not be surprising to see a better Republican challenge her in the primary.
Change None
Reason Cubin keeps voting like a right winger and her value in the minority still drops. Although the Republican inability to really oppose Democrats so far in the House makes a primary less likely no one wants to run to be powerless.
20. OH 15
Republican Deborah Pyrce
06 Winning Percentage 50%
04 Bush Percentage 50%
Reasons for Weakness
If you basically run in a tie with your opponent in a Congressional Race, you are vulnerable. However Deb Pryce is a seasoned campaigner and I am readily able to change roles, as her shift out of Republican Leadership shows. This is a tough one but completely winnable.
Change None
Reason: The DCCC keeps her on the target list and her district might be more Democratic in a Presidential but 06 was a great year for Ohio Democrats. She is already leaving leadership aside and voting with Democrats a ton.
21. CT 4
Republican Chris Shays
06 Winning Percentage 51%
04 Bush Percentage 46%
Reasons for Weakness
In many ways Chris Shays is like many of the other close races except that he has more long term incumbency and will be expect a challenge. I am from CT so I know of recruiting difficulties. It is a winnable race but one that requires a complete commitment to it. Still only eight Kerry won districts have Republican Incumbents this is one of them.
Change None
Reason: Shays voted against Medicare change but otherwise is voting with most of the Democratic agenda. The DCCC still seems interested.
22. IL 10
Republican Mark Kirk
06 Winning Percentage 53%
04 Bush Percentage 47%
Reasons for Weakness
The seventh Kerry won district on the lists. Mark Kirk is much like Chris Shays was after 2004. A scare yes, but he still had some breathing room. Picking him off will be very difficult, though Dan Seals giving it another try would be serious.
Change None
Reason: Mark Kirk is clearly leaving his leadership days behind and voting with Democrats . This makes it easier for him to paint himself as moderate but it is also clearly as the DCCC said
23. NY 13
Republican Vito Fosella
06 Winning Percentage 57%
04 Bush Percentage 55%
Reasons for Weakness
This race moved into the rankings from spot 26 because the DCCC targeted it for ethics violations. New York's Democratic Lean in the last election makes it seem entirely possible that this race will finally get hot.
24. PA 3
Republican Phil English
06 Winning Percentage 54%
04 Bush Percentage 53%
Reasons for Weakness
This was another under-target in PA , an area which trended toward the party in a serious way. There have also been rumor's abounding about Phil English. Finding a good challenger will be difficult but he is clearly vulnerable because of his underperformance.
Change Down
Reasons: Vito's weakness is just slightly greater.
25. MI 11
Republican Thaddeus McCotter
06 Winning Percentage 54%
04 Bush Percentage 53%
Reasons for Weakness
This was another Michigan under-target particularly in relationship to funding. That means the Vulnerable exists and is real. It is going to be a very tough nut to crack, but it fits the profile of many of the Democrat upset victories that happened across the country this year.
Change Down
Reason: Just moved down a spot.
Dropped out of Top 25
Steve Chabot
Entered
Vito Fossella
26. OH 1
Republican Steve Chabot
06 Winning Percentage 53%
04 Bush Percentage 51%
27. NJ 5
Republican Scott Garrett
06 Winning Percentage 55%
04 Bush Percentage 57%
28. IL 11
Republican Jerry Weller
06 Winning Percentage 55%
04 Bush Percentage 53%
29. IA 4
Republican Tom Latham
06 Winning Percentage 57%
04 Bush Percentage 51%
30. NY 3
Republican Peter King
06 Winning Percentage 56%
04 Bush Percentage 53%
31. OH 2
Republican Jean Schmidt
06 Winning Percentage 51%
04 Bush Percentage 64%
32. VA 11
Republican Tom Davis
06 Winning Percentage 55%
04 Bush Percentage 50%
33. NY 29
Republican Randy Kuhl
06 Winning Percentage 52%
04 Bush Percentage 56%
34. FL 1O
Republican Bill Young
06 Winning Percentage 66%
04 Bush Percentage 50%
35. CA 26
Republican David Drier
06 Winning Percentage 57%
04 Bush Percentage 55%
36. OH 3
Republican Mike Turner
06 Winning Percentage 59%
04 Bush Percentage 54%
37. FL 24
Republican Tom Feeney
06 Winning Percentage 58%
04 Bush Percentage 55%
38. DE AL
Republican Mike Castle
06 Winning Percentage 57%
04 Bush Percentage 46%
39. NJ 3
Republican Jim Saxton
06 Winning Percentage 58%
04 Bush Percentage 51%
40. MN 6
Republican Michelle Bachmann
06 Winning Percentage 50%
04 Bush Percentage 57%
41. VA 2
Republican Thelma Drake
06 Winning Percentage 52%
04 Bush Winning Percentage 58%
42. OH 12
Republican Pat Tiberi
06 Winning Percentage 58%
04 Bush Percentage 51%
43.
NY 23
Republican John McHugh
06 Winning Percentage 63%
04 Bush Percentage 51%
44. OH 14
Republican Steve LaTourette
06 Winning Percentage 58%
04 Bush Percentage 53%
45. NJ 2
Republican Frank LoBiondo
06 Winning Percentage 62%
04 Bush Percentage 50%
46. CO 6
Republican Tom Tancredo
06 Winning Percentage 59%
04 Bush Percentage 60%
Reason Likely to be open
47. WI 1
Republican Paul Ryan
06 Winning Percentage 63%
04 Bush Percentage 54%
48.
MN 3
Republican Jim Ramstad
06 Winning Percentage 65%
04 Bush Percentage 51%
49 . ID 1
Republican Bill Salli
06 Winning Percentage 50%
04 Bush Percentage 69%
50. MI 4
Republican Dave Camp
06 Winning Percentage 60%
04 Bush Percentage 55%
Dropped out of Top 50
Ilena Ros-Lethinen
Fred Upton
Enter Top 50
Thelma Drake
Tom Tancredo
Month 2 of Tracking the Top 50 House Pick up Chances
So this is the second month of tracking the Top 50 House Pick Up Chances in the country. What is the most amazing about a project like this is the amount of new information there already is to switch decisions about races. We have about 7 votes in the House that could be used against certain Republicans in the House . We also have a new DCCC list of where they are looking to go in terms of targeting. In addition to the information from last month I will include change as well reason for change
The Top 50 races
1. MI 7
Republican Tim Walberg
06 Winning Percentage 51%
04 Bush Percentage 54%
Reason for Weakness
Tim Walberg is the most vulnerable Republican member of Congress because running against an opponent in a general election who spent only $ 55,000,. He got just 51% in a 54% Bush District. His defeat of a Congressman Schwarz who was widely liked will cause him problems. If the Democrats can find a centrist in the Schwarz model we should be able to defeat this Freshman.
Change No Change
Reason: Tim Walberg has already cast his lot like the Right Wing Republican we expected including a no vote on the Minimum Wage, the only issue is that lots of Republicans now seem to be circling as well.
2. PA 15
Republican Charlie Dent
06 Winning Percentage 53%
04 Bush Percentage 50%
Reasons for Weakness
Charlie Dent has only been re-elected once in now one of only eight Republicans to hold a seat that John Kerry won . He also was one of only two incumbents in Kerry won districts not to have a well-financed challenger. The fact that he was only able to get 53% under these circumstance means that he is a very good target for defeat.
Change No change
Reason Charlie Dent remains vulnerable and the DCCC now list him a such. This race will remain very hot
3.. FL 8
Republican Ric Keller
06 Winning Percentage 53%
04 Bush Percentage 55%
Reasons for Weakness
You never want to run below the President of Your own Party in your district and this is exactly what happened to Ric Keller. This is particularly bad in a state where Republican loses were less than in other states. His 53% against a good but not great opponent in a peripherally targeted race was trouble enough, but he is now breaking a term limits and already has a republican primary challenger.
Change Up
Reason: On reflection Ric Keller seems even more vulnerable, and his rushing out to oppose Iraq would make sense for someone more vulnerable.
4. NV 3
Republican Jon Porter
06 Winning Percentage 48%
04 Bush Percentage 50%
Reasons for Weakness
As a Member of Congress you never want to be getting less than 50% and that is exactly the position that Jon Porter find himself as he confronts life in the minority. The Democrat was able to get 47% with 5% going else where. If the Democrats can recruit a slightly more experience candidate and Ms. Hafen now counts. This race will be extremely close.
Change Down
Reason: Keller had to move up and therefore Porter had to move down He remains very vulnerable and is DCCC rated as such
5. WA 8
Republican Dave Reichert
06 Winning Percentage ?
04 Bush Percentage 48%
Reasons for Weakness
A two term Congressman from one of eight Kerry won Republican held seats is by definition vulnerable, also a minority member. That he was able to get only 51% in both cycles adds to that vulnerability. This race will be very tight again. The Presidential should be helpful.
Change None
Reason. Reichert remains a Republican in a Democrat district who by an extremely small percentage and who just seems vulnerable
6. AZ 1
Republican Rick Renzi
06 Winning Percentage 51%
04 Bush Percentage 54%
Reasons for Weakness
Hints of corruption, a weak re-election performance including running behind the President of your own party and being a relatively junior member now in the minority these are the challenges now faced by Rick Renzi. This is a member who is beatable.
Change Up
Reason: The DCCC lists it as vulnerable because of ethics issues that alone should make him more vulnerable.
7. CA 4
Republican John Doolittle
06 Winning Percentage 49%
04 Bush Percentage 61%
Reasons for Weakness
A congressperson never wants to get less than 50%, when that is combined with such a massive running behind of party ID It shows a member with a serious problem. The large amount spent on the legal defense fund might be why. If Charlie Brown gives it another shot this could be a race. We sure should make sure it is.
Change Up
Reason: The increased likelihood of Charlie Brown's running again makes Doolittle vulnerable as does the DCCC ranking the district in its ethically challenged catergory.
8. NJ 7
Republican Mike Ferguson
06 Winning Percentage 49%
04 Bush Percentage 53%
Reasons for Weakness
Another Republican under 50% spells danger for him. He also is still a relative junior member just reaching the minority for the first time. Linda Stender should be encouraged to make the challenge again and regardless this can be a very close race. Ferguson's position on social issues are also out of step for the district.
Change Up
Reason: The Democratic Convention in Denver will make beating Marilyn Musgrave more difficult he drop allows this district to move up.
9.NC 8
Republican Robin Hayes
06 Winning Percentage 50%
04 Bush Percentage 54%
Reasons for Weakness
Winning by less than 500 vote against the same opponent who was generally under-funded last time is all one needs to make the top ten list of vulnerable members, I think Larry Kissell should be the first person on the New Blue Majority List.
Change Up
Reason: Same as above
10. CO 4
Republican Marilyn Musgrave
06 Winning Percentage 46%
04 Bush Percentage 58%
Reasons for Weakness
46% is a terrible number for an Incumbent. It means serious problems particularly when your last election performance before was already 7% the President behind that of the President of your own party.
Change Down
Reason: In a traditionally Republican part of a trending Democratic State, CO 4 is likely to re-act slightly against the Democratic Tide. This just make beating Musgrave more difficult and it is more important to win Colorado in the Presidential than beating Marilyn Musgrave.
11. MI 9
Republican Joe Knollenberg
06 Winning Percentage 52%
04 Bush Percentage 51%
Reasons for Weakness
This was probably the worst under-target in the nation besides PA 15 with less reasons for it. The good news however is that Joe Knollenberg now a minority member spent a huge amount of money his campaign money just to hold on. He is also relatively old so a retirement would not be surprising. Either way this seat should be a top priority. Nancy Skinner was a very good candidate that not only the DCCC but us in the Netroots missed as well. If she runs again I think supporting her would be justified.
Change None
Reason, If anything this spot holds the best because it is now a DCCC target.
12. IL 14
Republican Dennis Hastert
06 Winning Percentage 60%
04 Bush Percentage 55%
Reasons for Weakness
How the mighty have fallen. It is quite likely this seat will open up in 08 and if not Dennis Hastert is damaged goods, a bygone relic of an era that is gone. Illinois is also a state trending clearly our way. This is a great chance.
Change None
Reason: Looking at Dennis Hastert's sad face it is hard to believe he will run again and open seats are generally easier to get.
13. PA 18
Republican Tim Murphy
06 Winning Percentage 58%
04 Bush Percentage 54%
Reasons for Weakness
Scandal appears to be rearing itself into this district in a way that helps us. This combined with a district remarkably similar to PA 4th where Melissa Hart was recently beaten. If not for the scandal this district would rank lower but for now it is a prime target
Change Up
Reason: The scandal is now being addressed by the DCCC edging this seat up a spot.
14. OH 16
Republican Ralph Regula
06 Winning Percentage 59%
04 Bush Percentage 54%
Reasons for Weakness
When a nothing challenger holds you under 60% that is a problem. When you are already in your Eighties that is also a problem. When you are about to drop a tremendous amount in power that spells trouble. The Democrats already have a challenger and more will probably emerge.
Change down
Reason The Murphy Scandal moves Regula down a spot no real change.
15 . IL 6
Republican Peter Roskam
06 Winning Percentage 51%
04 Bush Percentage 53%
Reasons for Weakness
This was the DCCC's greatest folly, by choosing a non-local candidate. It allowed the Republicans to frame the race in a way favorable to them and ultimately win it. That said the race was extremely close. A freshman Republican minority member has to beatable. Finding a local candidate will be essential.
Change None
Reason: Roskam has voted like a right winger when his district is far more reasonable. He has to be considered a prime target
16. PA 6
Republican Jim Gelach
06 Winning Percentage 51%
04 Bush Percentage 48%
Reasons for Weakness
51%, three straight elections. It seems as if Jim Gerlach is a survivor which makes him difficult to defeat and yet he clearly has to deal with transition from majority to minority. A good Democratic Candidate will make this a race again and quickly.
Change None
Reason Gerlach is vulnerable for the very same reasons he always has been.
17. NY 25
Republican Jim Walsh
06 Winning Percentage 51%
04 Bush Percentage 48%
Reasons for Weakness
After not having a real challenger in a long time Jim Walsh was faced with the scare of his life. Democrat Dan Maffei was also not as well funded as he could have been. As one of the eight Republican in Kerry won districts. Jim Walsh can expect a real challenge though unlike other members he will be ready for it.
Change None
Reason Same basic reasons, he has been voting with Democrats on everything but stem cell research.
18. NM 1
Republican Heather Wilson
06 Winning Percentage 50%
04 Bush Percentage 48%
Reasons for Weakness
Another absolute squeaker and another chance to take a Republican held seat. Heather Wilson is as slick as they come, though people do seem to think that Patricia Madrid made a late debate error. Regardless, she is vulnerable but difficult to beat.
Change None
Reason She is just a vulnerable as ever but is still as skilled as ever. She is also voting along with Democrats and making noise on Iraq.
19. WY AL
Republican Barbara Cubin
06 Winning Percentage 48%
04 Bush Percentage 69%
Reasons for Weakness
No one likes Barbara Cubin and her extremely weak showing shows, and yet trying to overcome the Republican tilt of Wyoming is extremely difficult, particularly in a Presidential Year. It would not be surprising to see a better Republican challenge her in the primary.
Change None
Reason Cubin keeps voting like a right winger and her value in the minority still drops. Although the Republican inability to really oppose Democrats so far in the House makes a primary less likely no one wants to run to be powerless.
20. OH 15
Republican Deborah Pyrce
06 Winning Percentage 50%
04 Bush Percentage 50%
Reasons for Weakness
If you basically run in a tie with your opponent in a Congressional Race, you are vulnerable. However Deb Pryce is a seasoned campaigner and I am readily able to change roles, as her shift out of Republican Leadership shows. This is a tough one but completely winnable.
Change None
Reason: The DCCC keeps her on the target list and her district might be more Democratic in a Presidential but 06 was a great year for Ohio Democrats. She is already leaving leadership aside and voting with Democrats a ton.
21. CT 4
Republican Chris Shays
06 Winning Percentage 51%
04 Bush Percentage 46%
Reasons for Weakness
In many ways Chris Shays is like many of the other close races except that he has more long term incumbency and will be expect a challenge. I am from CT so I know of recruiting difficulties. It is a winnable race but one that requires a complete commitment to it. Still only eight Kerry won districts have Republican Incumbents this is one of them.
Change None
Reason: Shays voted against Medicare change but otherwise is voting with most of the Democratic agenda. The DCCC still seems interested.
22. IL 10
Republican Mark Kirk
06 Winning Percentage 53%
04 Bush Percentage 47%
Reasons for Weakness
The seventh Kerry won district on the lists. Mark Kirk is much like Chris Shays was after 2004. A scare yes, but he still had some breathing room. Picking him off will be very difficult, though Dan Seals giving it another try would be serious.
Change None
Reason: Mark Kirk is clearly leaving his leadership days behind and voting with Democrats . This makes it easier for him to paint himself as moderate but it is also clearly as the DCCC said
23. NY 13
Republican Vito Fosella
06 Winning Percentage 57%
04 Bush Percentage 55%
Reasons for Weakness
This race moved into the rankings from spot 26 because the DCCC targeted it for ethics violations. New York's Democratic Lean in the last election makes it seem entirely possible that this race will finally get hot.
24. PA 3
Republican Phil English
06 Winning Percentage 54%
04 Bush Percentage 53%
Reasons for Weakness
This was another under-target in PA , an area which trended toward the party in a serious way. There have also been rumor's abounding about Phil English. Finding a good challenger will be difficult but he is clearly vulnerable because of his underperformance.
Change Down
Reasons: Vito's weakness is just slightly greater.
25. MI 11
Republican Thaddeus McCotter
06 Winning Percentage 54%
04 Bush Percentage 53%
Reasons for Weakness
This was another Michigan under-target particularly in relationship to funding. That means the Vulnerable exists and is real. It is going to be a very tough nut to crack, but it fits the profile of many of the Democrat upset victories that happened across the country this year.
Change Down
Reason: Just moved down a spot.
Dropped out of Top 25
Steve Chabot
Entered
Vito Fossella
26. OH 1
Republican Steve Chabot
06 Winning Percentage 53%
04 Bush Percentage 51%
27. NJ 5
Republican Scott Garrett
06 Winning Percentage 55%
04 Bush Percentage 57%
28. IL 11
Republican Jerry Weller
06 Winning Percentage 55%
04 Bush Percentage 53%
29. IA 4
Republican Tom Latham
06 Winning Percentage 57%
04 Bush Percentage 51%
30. NY 3
Republican Peter King
06 Winning Percentage 56%
04 Bush Percentage 53%
31. OH 2
Republican Jean Schmidt
06 Winning Percentage 51%
04 Bush Percentage 64%
32. VA 11
Republican Tom Davis
06 Winning Percentage 55%
04 Bush Percentage 50%
33. NY 29
Republican Randy Kuhl
06 Winning Percentage 52%
04 Bush Percentage 56%
34. FL 1O
Republican Bill Young
06 Winning Percentage 66%
04 Bush Percentage 50%
35. CA 26
Republican David Drier
06 Winning Percentage 57%
04 Bush Percentage 55%
36. OH 3
Republican Mike Turner
06 Winning Percentage 59%
04 Bush Percentage 54%
37. FL 24
Republican Tom Feeney
06 Winning Percentage 58%
04 Bush Percentage 55%
38. DE AL
Republican Mike Castle
06 Winning Percentage 57%
04 Bush Percentage 46%
39. NJ 3
Republican Jim Saxton
06 Winning Percentage 58%
04 Bush Percentage 51%
40. MN 6
Republican Michelle Bachmann
06 Winning Percentage 50%
04 Bush Percentage 57%
41. VA 2
Republican Thelma Drake
06 Winning Percentage 52%
04 Bush Winning Percentage 58%
42. OH 12
Republican Pat Tiberi
06 Winning Percentage 58%
04 Bush Percentage 51%
43.
NY 23
Republican John McHugh
06 Winning Percentage 63%
04 Bush Percentage 51%
44. OH 14
Republican Steve LaTourette
06 Winning Percentage 58%
04 Bush Percentage 53%
45. NJ 2
Republican Frank LoBiondo
06 Winning Percentage 62%
04 Bush Percentage 50%
46. CO 6
Republican Tom Tancredo
06 Winning Percentage 59%
04 Bush Percentage 60%
Reason Likely to be open
47. WI 1
Republican Paul Ryan
06 Winning Percentage 63%
04 Bush Percentage 54%
48.
MN 3
Republican Jim Ramstad
06 Winning Percentage 65%
04 Bush Percentage 51%
49 . ID 1
Republican Bill Salli
06 Winning Percentage 50%
04 Bush Percentage 69%
50. MI 4
Republican Dave Camp
06 Winning Percentage 60%
04 Bush Percentage 55%
Dropped out of Top 50
Ilena Ros-Lethinen
Fred Upton
Enter Top 50
Thelma Drake
Tom Tancredo
Tuesday, January 16, 2007
They could have raised the Minimum Wage, but Didn’t
So the Minimum Wage increase got 82 Republican House votes, which on face is encouraging but in my mind it begs an important question. Why did it take nine years and Democratic Control of the House to actually get a Minimum Wage increase passed?
Excluding the two Freshman. 80 Republican Members of Congress voted for the Minimum Wage Increase. Now clearly on some issues small minorities within a party often don’t break with their parties leadership on issues because of the danger . But this was by no means a small minority. 80 Republicans represented more than a third of the entire Caucus at the time. This group could have easily forced the House Leadership to pass a Minimum wage increase that the Senate could have passed without linking it to the Estate tax. I know there are many not in these parts but some in the party who would think that now we are in the Majority we should be less aggressive in defeating Republicans who could be useful to us, better to focus on defending the seats we have. Just remember that it is these 80 Republicans who kept the poorest workers in this country from getting a raise, not because they don’t believe in the Minimum Wage but because they didn’t have the courage to stand up to Tom Delay and Company. It will take a lot more acts of actual political courage for me to believe any of these Members of Congress has truly changed. So to the Shays’, Wilsons’ and Gelachs’ of the world, speaking for no one but myself, I am still coming to send you into the private sector.
The “80” Should haves.
Aderholt
Alexander
Bachus
Biggert
Bonner
Bono
Bozeman
Brown Waite
Capito
Castle
Crenshaw
Davis KY
Jo Ann Davis
L Diaz-Balart
M Diaz-Balart
Duncan
Ehlers
Emerson
English
Everett
Ferguson
Forbes
Fossella
Frelinghuysen
Gerlach
Gilchrest
Gillmor
Goode
Goodlatte
Hayes
Hulshof
Jindal
Johnson IL
Jones NC
Keller
King NY
Kirk
Kuhl
LaHood
Latham
LaTourette
LoBiondo
Marchant
McCotter
McHugh
Miller MI
Moran KS
Tim Murphy
Peterson PA
Petri
Platts
Poe
Pryce OH
Ramstad
Regula
Reichert
Renzi
Rogers AL
Rogers KY
Ros-Lehtinen
Saxton
Schmidt
Shays
Shimkus
Simpson
Smith NJ
Smith TX
Stearns
Turner
Upton
Walden OR
Walsh NY
Wamp
Weller
Whitfield
Wilson
Wolf
Young AK
Young FL
Excluding the two Freshman. 80 Republican Members of Congress voted for the Minimum Wage Increase. Now clearly on some issues small minorities within a party often don’t break with their parties leadership on issues because of the danger . But this was by no means a small minority. 80 Republicans represented more than a third of the entire Caucus at the time. This group could have easily forced the House Leadership to pass a Minimum wage increase that the Senate could have passed without linking it to the Estate tax. I know there are many not in these parts but some in the party who would think that now we are in the Majority we should be less aggressive in defeating Republicans who could be useful to us, better to focus on defending the seats we have. Just remember that it is these 80 Republicans who kept the poorest workers in this country from getting a raise, not because they don’t believe in the Minimum Wage but because they didn’t have the courage to stand up to Tom Delay and Company. It will take a lot more acts of actual political courage for me to believe any of these Members of Congress has truly changed. So to the Shays’, Wilsons’ and Gelachs’ of the world, speaking for no one but myself, I am still coming to send you into the private sector.
The “80” Should haves.
Aderholt
Alexander
Bachus
Biggert
Bonner
Bono
Bozeman
Brown Waite
Capito
Castle
Crenshaw
Davis KY
Jo Ann Davis
L Diaz-Balart
M Diaz-Balart
Duncan
Ehlers
Emerson
English
Everett
Ferguson
Forbes
Fossella
Frelinghuysen
Gerlach
Gilchrest
Gillmor
Goode
Goodlatte
Hayes
Hulshof
Jindal
Johnson IL
Jones NC
Keller
King NY
Kirk
Kuhl
LaHood
Latham
LaTourette
LoBiondo
Marchant
McCotter
McHugh
Miller MI
Moran KS
Tim Murphy
Peterson PA
Petri
Platts
Poe
Pryce OH
Ramstad
Regula
Reichert
Renzi
Rogers AL
Rogers KY
Ros-Lehtinen
Saxton
Schmidt
Shays
Shimkus
Simpson
Smith NJ
Smith TX
Stearns
Turner
Upton
Walden OR
Walsh NY
Wamp
Weller
Whitfield
Wilson
Wolf
Young AK
Young FL
Monday, January 15, 2007
MLK DAY
Dear Loyal Readers
Tommorrow begins my return to school and hopefully also a return to more regular posting here. However I did not feel it was proper to let Martin Luther King Day go by without at least saying something. Without getting to detailed what is extremely important to remember is that many many people in The United States were bitterly opposed to Martin Luther King and his legacy. That everyone now sees him as great and wonderfull should not allow people to forget this oppisition. It is also important to remember that not all of his opponents were Southerns and not all of his opponents were uneducated. As society we tend to go back and pretend that things were easier than they were. On Martin Luther King Day it is important to remember how hard his struggle was and when possibe find ways to make it our struggle now. More on Moral cowardice tommorrow.
Thanks again for reading.
Tommorrow begins my return to school and hopefully also a return to more regular posting here. However I did not feel it was proper to let Martin Luther King Day go by without at least saying something. Without getting to detailed what is extremely important to remember is that many many people in The United States were bitterly opposed to Martin Luther King and his legacy. That everyone now sees him as great and wonderfull should not allow people to forget this oppisition. It is also important to remember that not all of his opponents were Southerns and not all of his opponents were uneducated. As society we tend to go back and pretend that things were easier than they were. On Martin Luther King Day it is important to remember how hard his struggle was and when possibe find ways to make it our struggle now. More on Moral cowardice tommorrow.
Thanks again for reading.
Thursday, January 11, 2007
Politics1 is how I can do my job.
So this is a note of thanks to my favorite research site.
So back on December 19th I brought the blogosphre the 50 Republican House seats I thought would most likely flip to the Democrats in the next election. I also promised to update this list once a month. One of the major reason I am able to keep track of the candidates and races is because of the tremendous work of Ron Gunzburger’s at www.politics1.com. I wrote this diary both to look at his work and also to announce that is website is now cleared and already doing a good job covering the 2008 Presidential race as well as the beginning of coverage of the 2008 congressional races. This coverage will be invaluable in my being able to bring update coverage of taking even more Republican seats. So this is a thanks and encouragement for everyone else here to visit politics1.com
So back on December 19th I brought the blogosphre the 50 Republican House seats I thought would most likely flip to the Democrats in the next election. I also promised to update this list once a month. One of the major reason I am able to keep track of the candidates and races is because of the tremendous work of Ron Gunzburger’s at www.politics1.com. I wrote this diary both to look at his work and also to announce that is website is now cleared and already doing a good job covering the 2008 Presidential race as well as the beginning of coverage of the 2008 congressional races. This coverage will be invaluable in my being able to bring update coverage of taking even more Republican seats. So this is a thanks and encouragement for everyone else here to visit politics1.com
Wednesday, January 3, 2007
Away
I am going away for the Swearing in Ceremony In D.C. I then I have to be in L.A. for an unexpected family event. When I get back I will get back into a more day to blogging, the good news is that will start at almost exactly when Congress is in session and while therefore have lots of Stories. I am for one, perfectly happy to shut Republican out of the delaying process on issues they delayed with their majority of the majority rule.
Monday, January 1, 2007
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