I will admit vacation has been slowing the pace down here. I will note that the quality at least as judge by the experts contiuntes to excell. I will be honest and say if I got comments on what I write it would encourage more writing. With that, here is today's post.
The Ten House Candidates who should run again.
Now it is entirely possible that there are more than Ten Democratic Challengers who ran this time who would make ideal candidates against the same opponent in 2008. It is important to remember that out of 30 Democratic pick ups, just four came in re-matches, and in challenger rematches the two most closely watched, PA 6 and CT 4 were rare loses in an otherwise near East coast sweep. It is important to remember that simply being the nominee last time should not mean the nomination should be yours for the asking the next time. That said the sheer number of close calls means that some of these candidates deserve another look. It is that sprit I present the Ten who should run again, as well five honorable mentions candidates who should be viewed seriously if not automatically favorably if they declare.
1. Larrry Kissell NC 8
The fact that Larry Kissell has already committed to another run makes this choice relatively simple. Still when use lose by around 4,00 votes against a long term incumbent with that large a spending gap something is happening. Kissell was supposed to be a third tier nobody and now he is a clear netroots hero. Congressman Robin Hayes will also find life more difficult with no one there who can tell him exactly how to vote. The district is winnable by the numbers also. Larry Kissell for congress.
2. Nancy Skinner MI 9
This is probably the greatest under-target in the nation and for that very reason Nancy Skinner should be given another shot in this district should she want it. One huge accomplishment of hers was to run through the considerable about of money Congressman Knollenberg had stored up over years and years. She ran a very good race and needs another chance. It also be noted this race was missed almost completely by the mainstream blog’s that could have pushed it higher up. We might have missed a win here, as surely as the DCCC did.
3. Charlie Brown CA 4
This is a somewhat no brainier as the cloud of doubt of Congressman Doolittle continues to grow. Charlie Brown was able to run an extremely competitive race and He makes a great contrast to John Doolittle. I am excited for round 2
4. Linda Stender NJ 7
This was a very close race that and I believe Linda Stender to be the best possible candidate. Mike Ferguson is the type of member who gets weaker in the minority. Linda Stender could very well knock him off.
5. Darcy Burner WA 8
This race is extremely similar to the race just above. Relatively junior members just hold on and with a change in climate after the midterm, Congressman Reichert doesn’t have all his friends to get his back. He seems more suitable for the transition than Mike Ferguson, but the district is more democratic. Darcy Burner proved herself as a candidate this cycle.
6. Dan Seals IL 10
This was a slight under target and the 53% for Mark Kirk shows that might well have been a mistake. Dan Seals ran a very good campaign with a positive results and there are already rumblings that Mark Kirk is going to try and move up or out. Dan Seals should go right back to putting pressure on Congressman Kirk
7. Tessa Hafen NV 3
Probably one of the more heart-breaking loses in the country as Jon Porter won with only 47% of the Vote. Tessa Hafen got 46% if she can just find a way to consolidate the Anti-Porter vote. I think she could very well. She certainly earned the right by taking a race others has given up on.
8. Gary Truaner WY AL
Barbara Cubin is one of the worst members of Congress by fire. She ran under 50% last time and is generally not liked. This will potentially make her vulnerable to a Republican primary challenger who would then be more likely to win the general. Gary Truaner did run a great campaign but Wyoming is just an extremely difficult place to pull off.
9. Larry Grant ID 1
This is probably the greatest shame because it is hard to beat a Republican incumbent in Idaho. No matter who it is. That Bill Sali won means he is going to be extremely difficult to beat now that he is a Congressman. Still Larry Grant’s tough fight in the state would be a great value too it.
10. Charles Dertinger PA 15
This is probably my most difficult call. Charlie Dent needs a really good challenger. Charles Dertinger did everything right, except he raised no money. He could very well be the next cycle’s Paul Hodes but he also might simply be someone who can’t raise money at all. He would benefit from a primary challenger who will force him to raise some money, but he should probably be given another shot. No matter what happens this district needs to have a giant bulls-eye on it.
Honorable Mentions
Erica Massa NY 29, Dan Maffei NY 25 John Pavich IL 11 NC 5 Roger Sharpe Mary Jo Kilroy OH 15
Friday, December 29, 2006
Tuesday, December 19, 2006
Last Week update
I have no really brillant idea today,so this is mostly an update from the information from Last week. First off, the LM is now 1-1 with endorsements, while it was sad to see William Jefferson re-elect this was more than made up for it by Ciro Rodriquez surprise victory over Henry Bonilla. Evan Bayh dropped out of the the Presidential race and then there is, of course Senator Johnson's health. I also wanted to mention to my loyal readers that yesterday's blog post ended up on the frontpage of Three National blogs. So we are making progress. I will have more exiciting posts in the future but for now thanks for reading.
Monday, December 18, 2006
Hope it was worth the wait
So I hope everyone here is ok with the wait. This post will become the bedrock of the Lasting Majority. I will give more content for my loyal readers. But this is the basis of targeting and my belief about how to run a national house campaign.
Targeting 50 Republican House Seats from now until Election Day 08
So this is the most ambitious blogging project I have taken on and am quite excited about it. I will be bringing you, the readers of Swing State, Dailykos, MYDD and the LastingMajority, An update on the 50 most likely Republican Seats to flip to Democratic. Updating from today, once a month, all the Way to November 08.
First let me say why I think this is so important. The blogs role must play the role of offense as the DCCC might fade back into incumbent defense. We are very good on offense. This post is attempt to say which seats need to be targeted from the beginning of the Cycle and adjusting as circumstance change.
In addition to just the 50 seat targeting, I provide lists of all Republican Incumbents who got less than 60% and 55%, as well as the districts which sent a Republican to Congress that gave George Bush 55% or less of the vote in 2004. This and a few open seats are from where got the list. For the top 25 targeted races, I gave the reason for weakness. In the bottom 25, I just include information not context . I hope this will aid the Netroots Community in make even better targeting decisions.
The Top 50 races
1. MI 7
Republican Tim Walberg
06 Winning Percentage 51%
04 Bush Percentage 54%
Reason for Weakness
Tim Walberg is the most vulnerable Republican member of Congress because running against an opponent in a general election who spent only $ 55,000,. He got just 51% in a 54% Bush District. His defeat of a Congressman Schwarz who was widely liked will cause him problems. If the Democrats can find a centrist in the Schwarz model we should be able to defeat this Freshman.
2. PA 15
Republican Charlie Dent
06 Winning Percentage 53%
04 Bush Percentage 50%
Reasons for Weakness
Charlie Dent has only been re-elected once in now one of only eight Republicans to hold a seat that John Kerry won . He also was one of only two incumbents in Kerry won districts not to have a well-financed challenger. The fact that he was only able to get 53% under these circumstance means that he is a very good target for defeat.
3. NV 3
Republican Jon Porter
06 Winning Percentage 48%
04 Bush Percentage 50%
Reasons for Weakness
As a Member of Congress you never want to be getting less than 50% and that is exactly the position that Jon Porter find himself as he confronts life in the minority. The Democrat was able to get 47% with 5% going else where. If the Democrats can recruit a slightly more experience candidate and Ms. Hafen now counts. This race will be extremely close.
4. FL 8
Republican Ric Keller
06 Winning Percentage 53%
04 Bush Percentage 55%
Reasons for Weakness
You never want to run below the President of Your own Party in your district and this is exactly what happened to Ric Keller. This is particularly bad in a state where Republican loses were less than in other states. His 53% against a good but not great opponent in a peripherally targeted race was trouble enough, but he is now breaking a term limits and already has a republican primary challenger.
5. WA 8
Republican Dave Reichert
06 Winning Percentage ?
04 Bush Percentage 48%
Reasons for Weakness
A two term Congressman from one of eight Kerry won Republican held seats is by definition vulnerable, also a minority member. That he was able to get only 51% in both cycles adds to that vulnerability. This race will be very tight again. The Presidential should be helpful.
6. CO 4
Republican Marilyn Musgrave
06 Winning Percentage 46%
04 Bush Percentage 58%
Reasons for Weakness
46% is a terrible number for an Incumbent. It means serious problems particularly when your last election performance before was already 7% the President behind that of the President of your own party.
7. AZ 1
Republican Rick Renzi
06 Winning Percentage 51%
04 Bush Percentage 54%
Reasons for Weakness
Hints of corruption, a weak re-election performance including running behind the President of your own party and being a relatively junior member now in the minority these are the challenges now faced by Rick Renzi. This is a member who is beatable.
8. CA 4
Republican John Doolittle
06 Winning Percentage 49%
04 Bush Percentage 61%
Reasons for Weakness
A congressperson never wants to get less than 50%, when that is combined with such a massive running behind of party ID It shows a member with a serious problem. The large amount spent on the legal defense fund might be why. If Charlie Brown gives it another shot this could be a race. We sure should make sure it is.
9. NJ 7
Republican Mike Ferguson
06 Winning Percentage 49%
04 Bush Percentage 53%
Reasons for Weakness
Another Republican under 50% spells danger for him. He also is still a relative junior member just reaching the minority for the first time. Linda Stender should be encouraged to make the challenge again and regardless this can be a very close race. Ferguson’s position on social issues are also out of step for the district.
10.NC 8
Republican Robin Hayes
06 Winning Percentage 50%
04 Bush Percentage 54%
Reasons for Weakness
Winning by less than 500 vote against the same opponent who was generally under-funded last time is all one needs to make the top ten list of vulnerable members, I think Larry Kissell should be the first person on the New Blue Majority List.
11. MI 9
Republican Joe Knollenberg
06 Winning Percentage 52%
04 Bush Percentage 51%
Reasons for Weakness
This was probably the worst under-target in the nation besides PA 15 with less reasons for it. The good news however is that Joe Knollenberg now a minority member spent a huge amount of money his campaign money just to hold on. He is also relatively old so a retirement would not be surprising. Either way this seat should be a top priority. Nancy Skinner was a very good candidate that not only the DCCC but us in the Netroots missed as well. If she runs again I think supporting her would be justified.
12. IL 14
Republican Dennis Hastert
06 Winning Percentage 60%
04 Bush Percentage 55%
Reasons for Weakness
How the mighty have fallen. It is quite likely this seat will open up in 08 and if not Dennis Hastert is damaged goods, a bygone relic of an era that is gone. Illinois is also a state trending clearly our way. This is a great chance.
13. OH 16
Republican Ralph Regula
06 Winning Percentage 59%
04 Bush Percentage 54%
Reasons for Weakness
When a nothing challenger holds you under 60% that is a problem. When you are already in your Eighties that is also a problem. When you are about to drop a tremendous amount in power that spells trouble. The Democrats already have a challenger and more will probably emerge.
14. PA 18
Republican Tim Murphy
06 Winning Percentage 58%
04 Bush Percentage 54%
Reasons for Weakness
Scandal appears to be rearing itself into this district in a way that helps us. This combined with a district remarkably similar to PA 4th where Melissa Hart was recently beaten. If not for the scandal this district would rank lower but for now it is a prime target
15. IL 6
Republican Peter Roskam
06 Winning Percentage 51%
04 Bush Percentage 53%
Reasons for Weakness
This was the DCCC’s greatest folly, by choosing a non-local candidate. It allowed the Republicans to frame the race in a way favorable to them and ultimately win it. That said the race was extremely close. A freshman Republican minority member has to beatable. Finding a local candidate will be essential.
16. PA 6
Republican Jim Gelach
06 Winning Percentage 51%
04 Bush Percentage 48%
Reasons for Weakness
51%, three straight elections. It seems as if Jim Gerlach is a survivor which makes him difficult to defeat and yet he clearly has to deal with transition from majority to minority. A good Democratic Candidate will make this a race again and quickly.
17. NY 25
Republican Jim Walsh
06 Winning Percentage 51%
04 Bush Percentage 48%
Reasons for Weakness
After not having a real challenger in a long time Jim Walsh was faced with the scare of his life. Democrat Dan Maffei was also not as well funded as he could have been. As one of the eight Republican in Kerry won districts. Jim Walsh can expect a real challenge though unlike other members he will be ready for it.
18. NM 1
Republican Heather Wilson
06 Winning Percentage 50%
04 Bush Percentage 48%
Reasons for Weakness
Another absolute squeaker and another chance to take a Republican held seat. Heather Wilson is as slick as they come, though people do seem to think that Patricia Madrid made a late debate error. Regardless, she is vulnerable but difficult to beat.
19. WY AL
Republican Barbara Cubin
06 Winning Percentage 48%
04 Bush Percentage 69%
Reasons for Weakness
No one likes Barbara Cubin and her extremely weak showing shows, and yet trying to overcome the Republican tilt of Wyoming is extremely difficult, particularly in a Presidential Year. It would not be surprising to see a better Republican challenge her in the primary.
20. OH 15
Republican Deborah Pyrce
06 Winning Percentage 50%
04 Bush Percentage 50%
Reasons for Weakness
If you basically run in a tie with your opponent in a Congressional Race, you are vulnerable. However Deb Pryce is a seasoned campaigner and I am readily able to change roles, as her shift out of Republican Leadership shows. This is a tough one but completely winnable
21. CT 4
Republican Chris Shays
06 Winning Percentage 51%
04 Bush Percentage 46%
Reasons for Weakness
In many ways Chris Shays is like many of the other close races except that he has more long term incumbency and will be expect a challenge. I am from CT so I know of recruiting difficulties. It is a winnable race but one that requires a complete commitment to it. Still only eight Kerry won districts have Republican Incumbents this is one of them.
22. IL 10
Republican Mark Kirk
06 Winning Percentage 53%
04 Bush Percentage 47%
Reasons for Weakness
The seventh Kerry won district on the lists. Mark Kirk is much like Chris Shays was after 2004. A scare yes, but he still had some breathing room. Picking him off will be very difficult, though Dan Seals giving it another try would be serious.
23. PA 3
Republican Phil English
06 Winning Percentage 54%
04 Bush Percentage 53%
Reasons for Weakness
This was another under-target in PA , an area which trended toward the party in a serious way. There have also been rumor’s abounding about Phil English. Finding a good challenger will be difficult but he is clearly vulnerable because of his underperformance.
24. OH 1
Republican Steve Chabot
06 Winning Percentage 53%
04 Bush Percentage 51%
Reasons for Weakness
Steve Chabot had a real scare this time and came away with it quite well. He might be more vulnerable in a Presidential and the close nature of the district means it is winnable. One possible candidate is Paul Hackett, draft him and you have a race. This race risks slipping a way.
25. MI 11
Republican Thaddeus McCotter
06 Winning Percentage 54%
04 Bush Percentage 53%
Reasons for Weakness
This was another Michigan under-target particularly in relationship to funding. That means the Vulnerable exists and is real. It is going to be a very tough nut to crack, but it fits the profile of many of the Democrat upset victories that happened across the country this year.
26. NY 13
Republican Vito Fosella
06 Winning Percentage 57%
04 Bush Percentage 55%
27. NJ 5
Republican Scott Garrett
06 Winning Percentage 55%
04 Bush Percentage 57%
28. IL 11
Republican Jerry Weller
06 Winning Percentage 55%
04 Bush Percentage 53%
29. IA 4
Republican
06 Winning Percentage 57%
04 Bush Percentage 51%
30. NY 3
Republican Peter King
06 Winning Percentage 56%
04 Bush Percentage 53%
31. OH 2
Republican Jean Schmidt
06 Winning Percentage 51%
04 Bush Percentage 64%
32. VA 11
Republican Tom Davis
06 Winning Percentage 55%
04 Bush Percentage 50%
33. FL 1O
Republican Bill Young
06 Winning Percentage 66%
04 Bush Percentage 50%
34. CA 26
Republican David Drier
06 Winning Percentage 57%
04 Bush Percentage 55%
35. OH 3
Republican Mike Turner
06 Winning Percentage 59%
04 Bush Percentage 54%
36. NY 29
Republican Randy Kuhl
06 Winning Percentage 52%
04 Bush Percentage 56%
37. FL 24
Republican Tom Feeney
06 Winning Percentage 58%
04 Bush Percentage 55%
38. DE AL
Republican Mike Castle
06 Winning Percentage 57%
04 Bush Percentage 46%
39. NJ 3
Republican Jim Saxton
06 Winning Percentage 58%
04 Bush Percentage 51%
40. MN 6
Republican Michelle Bachmann
06 Winning Percentage 50%
04 Bush Percentage 57%
41. OH 12
Republican Pat Tiberi
06 Winning Percentage 58%
04 Bush Percentage 51%
42. NY 23
Republican John McHugh
06 Winning Percentage 63%
04 Bush Percentage 51%
43. OH 14
Republican Steve LaTourette
06 Winning Percentage 58%
04 Bush Percentage 53%
44. NJ 2
Republican Frank LoBiondo
06 Winning Percentage 62%
04 Bush Percentage 50%
45. WI 1
Republican Paul Ryan
06 Winning Percentage 63%
04 Bush Percentage 54%
46 MN 3
Republican Jim Ramstad
06 Winning Percentage 65%
04 Bush Percentage 51%
47. MI 4
Republican Dave Camp
06 Winning Percentage 60%
04 Bush Percentage 55%
48. ID 1
Republican Bill Salli
06 Winning Percentage 50%
04 Bush Percentage 69%
49. FL 18
Republican Ileana Ros-Lehtinen
06 Winning Percentage 62%
04 Bush Percentage 54%
50. MI 6
Republican Fred Upton
06 Winning Percentage 61%
04 Bush Percentage 53%
Republican Incumbents under 60%
Total 75
AK AL Don Young 57%
AZ 1 Rick Renzi 51%
AZ 2 Trent Franks 58%
AZ 3 John Shadegg 58%
CA 3 Dan Lungren 59%
CA 4 John Doolittle 49%
CA 26 David Drier 59%
CA 45 Mary Bono 59%
CA 46 Dana Rohrabacher 59%
CA 50 Brian Bilbray 54%
CO 4 Marilyn Musgrave 46%
C0 6 Tom Tancredo 59%
CT 4 Chris Shays 51%
DE AL Mike Castle 57%
FL 8 Rich Keller 53%
FL 15 Dave Weldon 56%
FL 21 Lincoln Diaz-Balart 59%
FL 24 Tom Feeney 58%
FL 25 Mario Diaz-Balart 58%
IL 10 Mark Kirk 53%
IL 11 Jerry Weller 55%
IL 13 Judy Biggert 58%
IL 15 Tim Johnson 58%
IN 3 Mark Souder 54%
IA 4 Tom Latham 57%
IA 5 Steve King 58%
KY 2 Ron Lewis 55%
KY 4 Geoff Davis 51%
LA 4 Jim McCrery 58%
MD 6 Roscoe Bartlett 59%
MI 8 Mike Rogers 55%
MI 9 Joe Knollenberg 52%
MI 11 Thaddeus McCotter 54%
MN 2 John Kline 56%
MT AL Dennis Rehberg 59%
NE 1 Jeff Fortenberry 59%
NE 2 Lee Terry 55%
NV 3 Jon Porter 48%
NJ 3 Jim Saxton 58%
NJ 5 Scott Garrett 55%
NJ 7 Mike Ferguson 49%
NM 1 Heather Wilson 50%
NY 3 Pete King 56%
NY 13 Vito Fossella 57%
NY 25 Jim Walsh 51%
NY 26 Tom Reynolds 52%
NY 29 Randy Kuhl 52%
NC 5 Virginia Foxx 57%
NC 8 Robin Hayes 50%
OH 1 Steve Chabot 53%
OH 2 Jean Schmidt 51%
OH 3 Mike Turner 59%
OH 5 Paul Gillmor 57%
OH 12 Pat Tiberi 58%
OH 14 Steve LaTourette 58%
OH 15 Deborah Pryce 50%
OH 16 Ralph Regula 59%
PA 3 Phil English 54%
PA 6 Jim Gerlach 51%
PA 15 Chrales Dent 53%
PA 16 Joe Pitts 57%
PA 18 Tim Murphy 58%
TX 7 John Culberson 59%
TX 10 Mike McCaul 55%
TX 31 John Carter 58%
TX 32 Pete Sessions 57%
UT 3 Christopher Cannon 58%
VA 2 Thelma Drake 51%
VA 5 Virgil Goode 59%
VA 10 Frank Wolf 57%
VA 11 Tom Davis 55%
WA 5 Cathy McMorris 56%
WA 8 Dave Reichert
WV 2 Shelley Moore-Capito 57%
WY AL Barbara Cubin 48%
Republican Incumbents 55% or under
Total 34
AZ 1 Rick Renzi 51%
CA 4 John Doolittle 49%
CA 50 Brain Bilbray 54%
CO 4 Marilyn Musgrave 46%
CT 4 Chris Shays 51%
FL 8 Rich Keller 53%
IL 10 Mark Kirk 53%
IL 11 Jerry Weller 55%
IN 3 Mark Souder 54%
KY 2 Ron Lewis 55%
KY 4 Geoff Davis 51%
MI 8 Mike Rogers 55%
MI 9 Joe Knollenberg 52%
MI 11 Thaddeus McCotter 54%
NE 2 Lee Terry 55%
NV 3 Jon Porter 48%
NJ 5 Scott Garrett 55%
NJ 7 Mike Ferguson 49%
NM 1 Heather Wilson 50%
NY 25 Jim Walsh 51%
NY 26 Tom Reynolds 52%
NY 29 Randy Kuhl 52%
NC 8 Robin Hayes 50%
OH 1 Steve Chabot 53%
OH 2 Jean Schmidt 51%
OH 15 Deborah Pryce 50%
PA 3 Phil English 54%
PA 6 Jim Gerlach 51%
PA 15 Charlie Dent 53%
TX 10 Mike McCaul 55%
VA 2 Thelma Drake 51%
VA 11 Tom Davis 55%
WA 8 Dave Reichert
WY AL Barbara Cubin 48%
Republican held District where George Bush got 55% of the vote or less
AZ 1
CA 26
CA 50
CT 4
DE AL
FL 8
FL 10
FL 18
FL 24
IL 6
IL 10
IL 11
IL 13
IL 14
IL 16
IA 4
MI 4
MI 6
MI 7
MI 8
MI 9
MI 11
MN 2
MN 3
NV 3
NJ 2
NJ 3
NJ 7
NM 1
NY 3
NY 13
NY 23
NY 25
NY 26
NC 8
OH 1
OH 3
OH 12
OH 14
OH 15
OH 16
PA 3
PA 6
PA 15
PA 18
VA 10
VA 11
WA 8
WI 1
Over 60% for Incumbent
FL 10
FL 18
IL 14
IL 16
MI 4
MI 6
MN 3
NJ 2
NY 23
WI 1
Other Potentially Vulnerable Freshman
ID 1 Bill Sali
MN 6 Michelle Bachmann
FL 13 Vern Buchann
NV 2 Dean Heller
FL 9 Gus Billikrais
Targeting 50 Republican House Seats from now until Election Day 08
So this is the most ambitious blogging project I have taken on and am quite excited about it. I will be bringing you, the readers of Swing State, Dailykos, MYDD and the LastingMajority, An update on the 50 most likely Republican Seats to flip to Democratic. Updating from today, once a month, all the Way to November 08.
First let me say why I think this is so important. The blogs role must play the role of offense as the DCCC might fade back into incumbent defense. We are very good on offense. This post is attempt to say which seats need to be targeted from the beginning of the Cycle and adjusting as circumstance change.
In addition to just the 50 seat targeting, I provide lists of all Republican Incumbents who got less than 60% and 55%, as well as the districts which sent a Republican to Congress that gave George Bush 55% or less of the vote in 2004. This and a few open seats are from where got the list. For the top 25 targeted races, I gave the reason for weakness. In the bottom 25, I just include information not context . I hope this will aid the Netroots Community in make even better targeting decisions.
The Top 50 races
1. MI 7
Republican Tim Walberg
06 Winning Percentage 51%
04 Bush Percentage 54%
Reason for Weakness
Tim Walberg is the most vulnerable Republican member of Congress because running against an opponent in a general election who spent only $ 55,000,. He got just 51% in a 54% Bush District. His defeat of a Congressman Schwarz who was widely liked will cause him problems. If the Democrats can find a centrist in the Schwarz model we should be able to defeat this Freshman.
2. PA 15
Republican Charlie Dent
06 Winning Percentage 53%
04 Bush Percentage 50%
Reasons for Weakness
Charlie Dent has only been re-elected once in now one of only eight Republicans to hold a seat that John Kerry won . He also was one of only two incumbents in Kerry won districts not to have a well-financed challenger. The fact that he was only able to get 53% under these circumstance means that he is a very good target for defeat.
3. NV 3
Republican Jon Porter
06 Winning Percentage 48%
04 Bush Percentage 50%
Reasons for Weakness
As a Member of Congress you never want to be getting less than 50% and that is exactly the position that Jon Porter find himself as he confronts life in the minority. The Democrat was able to get 47% with 5% going else where. If the Democrats can recruit a slightly more experience candidate and Ms. Hafen now counts. This race will be extremely close.
4. FL 8
Republican Ric Keller
06 Winning Percentage 53%
04 Bush Percentage 55%
Reasons for Weakness
You never want to run below the President of Your own Party in your district and this is exactly what happened to Ric Keller. This is particularly bad in a state where Republican loses were less than in other states. His 53% against a good but not great opponent in a peripherally targeted race was trouble enough, but he is now breaking a term limits and already has a republican primary challenger.
5. WA 8
Republican Dave Reichert
06 Winning Percentage ?
04 Bush Percentage 48%
Reasons for Weakness
A two term Congressman from one of eight Kerry won Republican held seats is by definition vulnerable, also a minority member. That he was able to get only 51% in both cycles adds to that vulnerability. This race will be very tight again. The Presidential should be helpful.
6. CO 4
Republican Marilyn Musgrave
06 Winning Percentage 46%
04 Bush Percentage 58%
Reasons for Weakness
46% is a terrible number for an Incumbent. It means serious problems particularly when your last election performance before was already 7% the President behind that of the President of your own party.
7. AZ 1
Republican Rick Renzi
06 Winning Percentage 51%
04 Bush Percentage 54%
Reasons for Weakness
Hints of corruption, a weak re-election performance including running behind the President of your own party and being a relatively junior member now in the minority these are the challenges now faced by Rick Renzi. This is a member who is beatable.
8. CA 4
Republican John Doolittle
06 Winning Percentage 49%
04 Bush Percentage 61%
Reasons for Weakness
A congressperson never wants to get less than 50%, when that is combined with such a massive running behind of party ID It shows a member with a serious problem. The large amount spent on the legal defense fund might be why. If Charlie Brown gives it another shot this could be a race. We sure should make sure it is.
9. NJ 7
Republican Mike Ferguson
06 Winning Percentage 49%
04 Bush Percentage 53%
Reasons for Weakness
Another Republican under 50% spells danger for him. He also is still a relative junior member just reaching the minority for the first time. Linda Stender should be encouraged to make the challenge again and regardless this can be a very close race. Ferguson’s position on social issues are also out of step for the district.
10.NC 8
Republican Robin Hayes
06 Winning Percentage 50%
04 Bush Percentage 54%
Reasons for Weakness
Winning by less than 500 vote against the same opponent who was generally under-funded last time is all one needs to make the top ten list of vulnerable members, I think Larry Kissell should be the first person on the New Blue Majority List.
11. MI 9
Republican Joe Knollenberg
06 Winning Percentage 52%
04 Bush Percentage 51%
Reasons for Weakness
This was probably the worst under-target in the nation besides PA 15 with less reasons for it. The good news however is that Joe Knollenberg now a minority member spent a huge amount of money his campaign money just to hold on. He is also relatively old so a retirement would not be surprising. Either way this seat should be a top priority. Nancy Skinner was a very good candidate that not only the DCCC but us in the Netroots missed as well. If she runs again I think supporting her would be justified.
12. IL 14
Republican Dennis Hastert
06 Winning Percentage 60%
04 Bush Percentage 55%
Reasons for Weakness
How the mighty have fallen. It is quite likely this seat will open up in 08 and if not Dennis Hastert is damaged goods, a bygone relic of an era that is gone. Illinois is also a state trending clearly our way. This is a great chance.
13. OH 16
Republican Ralph Regula
06 Winning Percentage 59%
04 Bush Percentage 54%
Reasons for Weakness
When a nothing challenger holds you under 60% that is a problem. When you are already in your Eighties that is also a problem. When you are about to drop a tremendous amount in power that spells trouble. The Democrats already have a challenger and more will probably emerge.
14. PA 18
Republican Tim Murphy
06 Winning Percentage 58%
04 Bush Percentage 54%
Reasons for Weakness
Scandal appears to be rearing itself into this district in a way that helps us. This combined with a district remarkably similar to PA 4th where Melissa Hart was recently beaten. If not for the scandal this district would rank lower but for now it is a prime target
15. IL 6
Republican Peter Roskam
06 Winning Percentage 51%
04 Bush Percentage 53%
Reasons for Weakness
This was the DCCC’s greatest folly, by choosing a non-local candidate. It allowed the Republicans to frame the race in a way favorable to them and ultimately win it. That said the race was extremely close. A freshman Republican minority member has to beatable. Finding a local candidate will be essential.
16. PA 6
Republican Jim Gelach
06 Winning Percentage 51%
04 Bush Percentage 48%
Reasons for Weakness
51%, three straight elections. It seems as if Jim Gerlach is a survivor which makes him difficult to defeat and yet he clearly has to deal with transition from majority to minority. A good Democratic Candidate will make this a race again and quickly.
17. NY 25
Republican Jim Walsh
06 Winning Percentage 51%
04 Bush Percentage 48%
Reasons for Weakness
After not having a real challenger in a long time Jim Walsh was faced with the scare of his life. Democrat Dan Maffei was also not as well funded as he could have been. As one of the eight Republican in Kerry won districts. Jim Walsh can expect a real challenge though unlike other members he will be ready for it.
18. NM 1
Republican Heather Wilson
06 Winning Percentage 50%
04 Bush Percentage 48%
Reasons for Weakness
Another absolute squeaker and another chance to take a Republican held seat. Heather Wilson is as slick as they come, though people do seem to think that Patricia Madrid made a late debate error. Regardless, she is vulnerable but difficult to beat.
19. WY AL
Republican Barbara Cubin
06 Winning Percentage 48%
04 Bush Percentage 69%
Reasons for Weakness
No one likes Barbara Cubin and her extremely weak showing shows, and yet trying to overcome the Republican tilt of Wyoming is extremely difficult, particularly in a Presidential Year. It would not be surprising to see a better Republican challenge her in the primary.
20. OH 15
Republican Deborah Pyrce
06 Winning Percentage 50%
04 Bush Percentage 50%
Reasons for Weakness
If you basically run in a tie with your opponent in a Congressional Race, you are vulnerable. However Deb Pryce is a seasoned campaigner and I am readily able to change roles, as her shift out of Republican Leadership shows. This is a tough one but completely winnable
21. CT 4
Republican Chris Shays
06 Winning Percentage 51%
04 Bush Percentage 46%
Reasons for Weakness
In many ways Chris Shays is like many of the other close races except that he has more long term incumbency and will be expect a challenge. I am from CT so I know of recruiting difficulties. It is a winnable race but one that requires a complete commitment to it. Still only eight Kerry won districts have Republican Incumbents this is one of them.
22. IL 10
Republican Mark Kirk
06 Winning Percentage 53%
04 Bush Percentage 47%
Reasons for Weakness
The seventh Kerry won district on the lists. Mark Kirk is much like Chris Shays was after 2004. A scare yes, but he still had some breathing room. Picking him off will be very difficult, though Dan Seals giving it another try would be serious.
23. PA 3
Republican Phil English
06 Winning Percentage 54%
04 Bush Percentage 53%
Reasons for Weakness
This was another under-target in PA , an area which trended toward the party in a serious way. There have also been rumor’s abounding about Phil English. Finding a good challenger will be difficult but he is clearly vulnerable because of his underperformance.
24. OH 1
Republican Steve Chabot
06 Winning Percentage 53%
04 Bush Percentage 51%
Reasons for Weakness
Steve Chabot had a real scare this time and came away with it quite well. He might be more vulnerable in a Presidential and the close nature of the district means it is winnable. One possible candidate is Paul Hackett, draft him and you have a race. This race risks slipping a way.
25. MI 11
Republican Thaddeus McCotter
06 Winning Percentage 54%
04 Bush Percentage 53%
Reasons for Weakness
This was another Michigan under-target particularly in relationship to funding. That means the Vulnerable exists and is real. It is going to be a very tough nut to crack, but it fits the profile of many of the Democrat upset victories that happened across the country this year.
26. NY 13
Republican Vito Fosella
06 Winning Percentage 57%
04 Bush Percentage 55%
27. NJ 5
Republican Scott Garrett
06 Winning Percentage 55%
04 Bush Percentage 57%
28. IL 11
Republican Jerry Weller
06 Winning Percentage 55%
04 Bush Percentage 53%
29. IA 4
Republican
06 Winning Percentage 57%
04 Bush Percentage 51%
30. NY 3
Republican Peter King
06 Winning Percentage 56%
04 Bush Percentage 53%
31. OH 2
Republican Jean Schmidt
06 Winning Percentage 51%
04 Bush Percentage 64%
32. VA 11
Republican Tom Davis
06 Winning Percentage 55%
04 Bush Percentage 50%
33. FL 1O
Republican Bill Young
06 Winning Percentage 66%
04 Bush Percentage 50%
34. CA 26
Republican David Drier
06 Winning Percentage 57%
04 Bush Percentage 55%
35. OH 3
Republican Mike Turner
06 Winning Percentage 59%
04 Bush Percentage 54%
36. NY 29
Republican Randy Kuhl
06 Winning Percentage 52%
04 Bush Percentage 56%
37. FL 24
Republican Tom Feeney
06 Winning Percentage 58%
04 Bush Percentage 55%
38. DE AL
Republican Mike Castle
06 Winning Percentage 57%
04 Bush Percentage 46%
39. NJ 3
Republican Jim Saxton
06 Winning Percentage 58%
04 Bush Percentage 51%
40. MN 6
Republican Michelle Bachmann
06 Winning Percentage 50%
04 Bush Percentage 57%
41. OH 12
Republican Pat Tiberi
06 Winning Percentage 58%
04 Bush Percentage 51%
42. NY 23
Republican John McHugh
06 Winning Percentage 63%
04 Bush Percentage 51%
43. OH 14
Republican Steve LaTourette
06 Winning Percentage 58%
04 Bush Percentage 53%
44. NJ 2
Republican Frank LoBiondo
06 Winning Percentage 62%
04 Bush Percentage 50%
45. WI 1
Republican Paul Ryan
06 Winning Percentage 63%
04 Bush Percentage 54%
46 MN 3
Republican Jim Ramstad
06 Winning Percentage 65%
04 Bush Percentage 51%
47. MI 4
Republican Dave Camp
06 Winning Percentage 60%
04 Bush Percentage 55%
48. ID 1
Republican Bill Salli
06 Winning Percentage 50%
04 Bush Percentage 69%
49. FL 18
Republican Ileana Ros-Lehtinen
06 Winning Percentage 62%
04 Bush Percentage 54%
50. MI 6
Republican Fred Upton
06 Winning Percentage 61%
04 Bush Percentage 53%
Republican Incumbents under 60%
Total 75
AK AL Don Young 57%
AZ 1 Rick Renzi 51%
AZ 2 Trent Franks 58%
AZ 3 John Shadegg 58%
CA 3 Dan Lungren 59%
CA 4 John Doolittle 49%
CA 26 David Drier 59%
CA 45 Mary Bono 59%
CA 46 Dana Rohrabacher 59%
CA 50 Brian Bilbray 54%
CO 4 Marilyn Musgrave 46%
C0 6 Tom Tancredo 59%
CT 4 Chris Shays 51%
DE AL Mike Castle 57%
FL 8 Rich Keller 53%
FL 15 Dave Weldon 56%
FL 21 Lincoln Diaz-Balart 59%
FL 24 Tom Feeney 58%
FL 25 Mario Diaz-Balart 58%
IL 10 Mark Kirk 53%
IL 11 Jerry Weller 55%
IL 13 Judy Biggert 58%
IL 15 Tim Johnson 58%
IN 3 Mark Souder 54%
IA 4 Tom Latham 57%
IA 5 Steve King 58%
KY 2 Ron Lewis 55%
KY 4 Geoff Davis 51%
LA 4 Jim McCrery 58%
MD 6 Roscoe Bartlett 59%
MI 8 Mike Rogers 55%
MI 9 Joe Knollenberg 52%
MI 11 Thaddeus McCotter 54%
MN 2 John Kline 56%
MT AL Dennis Rehberg 59%
NE 1 Jeff Fortenberry 59%
NE 2 Lee Terry 55%
NV 3 Jon Porter 48%
NJ 3 Jim Saxton 58%
NJ 5 Scott Garrett 55%
NJ 7 Mike Ferguson 49%
NM 1 Heather Wilson 50%
NY 3 Pete King 56%
NY 13 Vito Fossella 57%
NY 25 Jim Walsh 51%
NY 26 Tom Reynolds 52%
NY 29 Randy Kuhl 52%
NC 5 Virginia Foxx 57%
NC 8 Robin Hayes 50%
OH 1 Steve Chabot 53%
OH 2 Jean Schmidt 51%
OH 3 Mike Turner 59%
OH 5 Paul Gillmor 57%
OH 12 Pat Tiberi 58%
OH 14 Steve LaTourette 58%
OH 15 Deborah Pryce 50%
OH 16 Ralph Regula 59%
PA 3 Phil English 54%
PA 6 Jim Gerlach 51%
PA 15 Chrales Dent 53%
PA 16 Joe Pitts 57%
PA 18 Tim Murphy 58%
TX 7 John Culberson 59%
TX 10 Mike McCaul 55%
TX 31 John Carter 58%
TX 32 Pete Sessions 57%
UT 3 Christopher Cannon 58%
VA 2 Thelma Drake 51%
VA 5 Virgil Goode 59%
VA 10 Frank Wolf 57%
VA 11 Tom Davis 55%
WA 5 Cathy McMorris 56%
WA 8 Dave Reichert
WV 2 Shelley Moore-Capito 57%
WY AL Barbara Cubin 48%
Republican Incumbents 55% or under
Total 34
AZ 1 Rick Renzi 51%
CA 4 John Doolittle 49%
CA 50 Brain Bilbray 54%
CO 4 Marilyn Musgrave 46%
CT 4 Chris Shays 51%
FL 8 Rich Keller 53%
IL 10 Mark Kirk 53%
IL 11 Jerry Weller 55%
IN 3 Mark Souder 54%
KY 2 Ron Lewis 55%
KY 4 Geoff Davis 51%
MI 8 Mike Rogers 55%
MI 9 Joe Knollenberg 52%
MI 11 Thaddeus McCotter 54%
NE 2 Lee Terry 55%
NV 3 Jon Porter 48%
NJ 5 Scott Garrett 55%
NJ 7 Mike Ferguson 49%
NM 1 Heather Wilson 50%
NY 25 Jim Walsh 51%
NY 26 Tom Reynolds 52%
NY 29 Randy Kuhl 52%
NC 8 Robin Hayes 50%
OH 1 Steve Chabot 53%
OH 2 Jean Schmidt 51%
OH 15 Deborah Pryce 50%
PA 3 Phil English 54%
PA 6 Jim Gerlach 51%
PA 15 Charlie Dent 53%
TX 10 Mike McCaul 55%
VA 2 Thelma Drake 51%
VA 11 Tom Davis 55%
WA 8 Dave Reichert
WY AL Barbara Cubin 48%
Republican held District where George Bush got 55% of the vote or less
AZ 1
CA 26
CA 50
CT 4
DE AL
FL 8
FL 10
FL 18
FL 24
IL 6
IL 10
IL 11
IL 13
IL 14
IL 16
IA 4
MI 4
MI 6
MI 7
MI 8
MI 9
MI 11
MN 2
MN 3
NV 3
NJ 2
NJ 3
NJ 7
NM 1
NY 3
NY 13
NY 23
NY 25
NY 26
NC 8
OH 1
OH 3
OH 12
OH 14
OH 15
OH 16
PA 3
PA 6
PA 15
PA 18
VA 10
VA 11
WA 8
WI 1
Over 60% for Incumbent
FL 10
FL 18
IL 14
IL 16
MI 4
MI 6
MN 3
NJ 2
NY 23
WI 1
Other Potentially Vulnerable Freshman
ID 1 Bill Sali
MN 6 Michelle Bachmann
FL 13 Vern Buchann
NV 2 Dean Heller
FL 9 Gus Billikrais
Wednesday, December 6, 2006
Light Posting
So this is my exam period, so I will probably not be posting much untill after the 15th. Don't be discouraged after that I will have a month where you will get the very best on here. There is a chance for some posting over this exam period but as said it will be light.
Everyone have a good break or holiday.
Jason
Everyone have a good break or holiday.
Jason
Monday, December 4, 2006
David Sirota is wrong, There are just Democrats and Republicans
I like David Sirota’s piece entitled the People Party vs. The Money Party. I really do. It is direct, straight forward and gives a picture of the world which is clear and concise it just happens to be wrong. He uses many simple rhetorical tactics designed to make it almost impossible to disagree with him, and yet I still found a way. These tactics in many ways are used to shore up some the weakness of his argument. My argument is simple, Democrats are better for the average person on economic issues than Republicans. This is true of all but a few Democrats and there is simply no reason to create a division in the party where none exists.
Lets start with this quote “The fact that our nation's politics is divided not between Democrats and Republicans but between the People Party and the Money Party is obvious to anyone who looks at the political system honestly” This is a tactic that is of the right. You can’t disagree with David Sirota’s view of the world and be honest, therefore before I get in another word in, I am already inherently dishonest, you don’t need to read anymore. If you would do this lying crook a favor please read on.
First comes Deification
Mr. Sirota then goes on to lionize hero’s of the People’s Party. I don’t know as much about these leaders as him, as with all attempts to create hero’s in some cases hero’s will fall. Jon Tester and Jim Webb have never cast a vote in the Senate. Now I don’t doubt they are Populist, but I think time needs to pass before there roles are clear. So far I am with him.
Next comes vilification.
Chuck Schumer is a villain because he talked about a report that suggest that some post-Enron corporate might have been overreaching, I am not making the argument that theses reforms are overreaching merely that was all the evidence one needed to make Chuck Schumer a villain. Ignore Chuck Schumer’s role at the DSCC where he clearly helped elect People Party Hero’s Webb Brown and Tester. In Webb’s case endorsing in a primary against a man Harris Miller who would clearly be likely to fall into what Mr. Sirota would call the Money Party.
Rahm Emanuel is a villain because he helped Clinton pass NAFTA and he raised money from Wall Street. Now I think it is very important here to understand that Trade is a very complicated issue, one that I don’t think can be used as a test of morals. So even if you oppose trade you can’t call those for it evil. On the issues of Wall Street money, I would agree with Mr. Sirota on the need for public financing of elections, I think it would do a lot of good, but until that happens Democrats are wise to keep financial pace with Republicans. Again, this doesn’t mean Rahm is a saint but again there is zero mention by Sirota of his chairing of the DCCC or for that mater his last minute independent expenditure on behalf of newly minted People Party Member Nancy Boyda
Steny Hoyer is a villain because he wants to raise money on K Street. That is all you need to know that someone is a villain. That fact he went everywhere and raised a ton of money on behalf of all kinds of Democrats is irrelevant
Joe Lieberman is of course the arch-villain in fact there is no greater villain. This has nothing to do with the fact that Sirota worked on Ned Lamont’s campaign and everything to do with truth. I am not making the argument that on Economic issues Joe has anything but a mixed record. He is however on record for repealing all of the Bush Tax Cut for the Wealth, and He also sponsored a Federal Law to allow card check for Union organizing.
Followed by obfuscation.
Note that Mr. Sirota is not willing to vilify anyone who might run for President. Also Baucus and Bayh have clearly less progressive records on Economic Issues than Senator Lieberman. So his hope for them is really his belief in the power of his movement than it is reflective of their actual records and beliefs. Also he is clearly hypocritical with respect to Hillary Clinton. She is in every respect ideologically in lock step with the Clinton Administration and an attempt to create daylight there so as to avoid calling Hillary Clinton a part of the money part is wrong. A question that I think Mr. Sirota needs to answer is whether Bill Clinton is himself part of the money party?
The point so as to make sure it is not missed is this. Democrats are better than Republican on the issues of economic justice, it is true some Democrats are more progressive than others, but on issues like raising the Minimum Wage, restoring Bush era cuts to vital service, or even regulating corporate wrong doing, Democrats generally agree. To say otherwise in an attempt to divide the party and set up the frame work for future primaries is in many ways no different from the Club for Growth who wishes to destroy all those who disagree with their extremist economic views. I may like the Progressive aims more but the tactics, don’t persuade, destroy are the same. I also think it leads down another terrible path, just as the Republicans promise their base the idea that traditional values can be re-instilled in the nation, Democrats would be wise not to promise American’s a return to an economic way of life that might simply never be coming back.
Lets start with this quote “The fact that our nation's politics is divided not between Democrats and Republicans but between the People Party and the Money Party is obvious to anyone who looks at the political system honestly” This is a tactic that is of the right. You can’t disagree with David Sirota’s view of the world and be honest, therefore before I get in another word in, I am already inherently dishonest, you don’t need to read anymore. If you would do this lying crook a favor please read on.
First comes Deification
Mr. Sirota then goes on to lionize hero’s of the People’s Party. I don’t know as much about these leaders as him, as with all attempts to create hero’s in some cases hero’s will fall. Jon Tester and Jim Webb have never cast a vote in the Senate. Now I don’t doubt they are Populist, but I think time needs to pass before there roles are clear. So far I am with him.
Next comes vilification.
Chuck Schumer is a villain because he talked about a report that suggest that some post-Enron corporate might have been overreaching, I am not making the argument that theses reforms are overreaching merely that was all the evidence one needed to make Chuck Schumer a villain. Ignore Chuck Schumer’s role at the DSCC where he clearly helped elect People Party Hero’s Webb Brown and Tester. In Webb’s case endorsing in a primary against a man Harris Miller who would clearly be likely to fall into what Mr. Sirota would call the Money Party.
Rahm Emanuel is a villain because he helped Clinton pass NAFTA and he raised money from Wall Street. Now I think it is very important here to understand that Trade is a very complicated issue, one that I don’t think can be used as a test of morals. So even if you oppose trade you can’t call those for it evil. On the issues of Wall Street money, I would agree with Mr. Sirota on the need for public financing of elections, I think it would do a lot of good, but until that happens Democrats are wise to keep financial pace with Republicans. Again, this doesn’t mean Rahm is a saint but again there is zero mention by Sirota of his chairing of the DCCC or for that mater his last minute independent expenditure on behalf of newly minted People Party Member Nancy Boyda
Steny Hoyer is a villain because he wants to raise money on K Street. That is all you need to know that someone is a villain. That fact he went everywhere and raised a ton of money on behalf of all kinds of Democrats is irrelevant
Joe Lieberman is of course the arch-villain in fact there is no greater villain. This has nothing to do with the fact that Sirota worked on Ned Lamont’s campaign and everything to do with truth. I am not making the argument that on Economic issues Joe has anything but a mixed record. He is however on record for repealing all of the Bush Tax Cut for the Wealth, and He also sponsored a Federal Law to allow card check for Union organizing.
Followed by obfuscation.
Note that Mr. Sirota is not willing to vilify anyone who might run for President. Also Baucus and Bayh have clearly less progressive records on Economic Issues than Senator Lieberman. So his hope for them is really his belief in the power of his movement than it is reflective of their actual records and beliefs. Also he is clearly hypocritical with respect to Hillary Clinton. She is in every respect ideologically in lock step with the Clinton Administration and an attempt to create daylight there so as to avoid calling Hillary Clinton a part of the money part is wrong. A question that I think Mr. Sirota needs to answer is whether Bill Clinton is himself part of the money party?
The point so as to make sure it is not missed is this. Democrats are better than Republican on the issues of economic justice, it is true some Democrats are more progressive than others, but on issues like raising the Minimum Wage, restoring Bush era cuts to vital service, or even regulating corporate wrong doing, Democrats generally agree. To say otherwise in an attempt to divide the party and set up the frame work for future primaries is in many ways no different from the Club for Growth who wishes to destroy all those who disagree with their extremist economic views. I may like the Progressive aims more but the tactics, don’t persuade, destroy are the same. I also think it leads down another terrible path, just as the Republicans promise their base the idea that traditional values can be re-instilled in the nation, Democrats would be wise not to promise American’s a return to an economic way of life that might simply never be coming back.
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