Dear Friends and those of the wider Blogosphere.
I write today to formally announce my support for one of our great Democratic Presidential Candidates. I am heading to New Hampshire as part of Barack Obama’s massive canvass day. Let me begin with an extremely important statement that I wish all who are engaged in this debate would honor. Of the six major Democratic Candidates, All would be good presidents, all are electable, all generally share our values. We are blessed with many good choices. But I believe Barack Obama would be the best nominee for our party and the best president for our country.
What Kind of Change
There can be doubt that George Bush and his policies have been some of the worst that could be frankly imagined but as Molly Ivins always told us, the key to figuring out a man is too look at the record. George Bush life before he was President gave us a clue as to what he would prioritize as President.
It is with same lens that we should judge the Presidential candidates. Even before Barack Obama ran for State Senate, he had already built a life that showed the kind of values that progressive like to see. Barack Obama could have chosen a life of riches both out of Columbia University and then later out of Harvard Law. Instead both times Senator Obama chose a life of service. Community organizing is fantastic training for how to make decisions, how to deal with people. It is that experience that makes Barack Obama different from the other candidates in the field.
Senator Obama’s Harvard Law education particularly as Head of Law Review shows a deep intellect. Heading the Law review is quite simply a job that most be earned. When community leadership is combined with intellect it is hard not to be impressed. This obviously compares favorably to George Bush. Taking these two very important skills together, it is not surprising that SenatorObama was generally considered to be a very good State Senator. I will be honest that I am not as well versed in this part of his career as I would wish to be, but I do know that his State Senate career put him in a position to run for the United States Senate in 2004. At the outset of this campaign, at a speech opposing the War in Iraq , he made the following statement .
“I know that even a successful war against Iraq will require a US occupation of undetermined length, at undetermined cost, with undetermined consequences. I know that an invasion of Iraq without a clear rationale and without strong international support will only fan the flames of the Middle East, and encourage the worst, rather than best, impulses of the Arab world, and strengthen the recruitment arm of al-Qaeda”
Can anyone cast doubt on his judgment in important matters of War and Peace with such forsight already on display. Senator Obama was also endorsed by many of the most progressive groups in Illinois in 2004 primary race for the United States Senate. There can be no doubt Barack Obama is a progressive either.
A community minded ,intelligent, wise, progressive. We are indeed lucky and no one could compare more favorably to George Bush.
The Politics
On the Merits, Barack Obama compares well against any of the major Democratic Presidential candidates but it is the power of the political argument that should sway those who might otherwise doubt the need to support Barack Obama. Put another way, if you don’t support Barack Obama at this point, you are really supporting Hillary Clinton. I want the record to at this point to show tha I have nothing against Hillary Clinton. If she is the Nominee of our Party, I will work as hard for her as I would for any Democrat. I just believe that she is slightly less electable than other Democratic candidates but even more importantly that the Clintons have been on the whole bad for the Democratic Party. To any lurking Hillary supporters, I have but one question, please name one progressive accomplishment of the Clinton Administration that was not basically undone by President George W. Bush. I am sure there are some but for the most part, for big progressive ideas, the Clinton Administration was a failure. On many other grounds it was a success but when looking at the even bigger problems that now need solving to clean up after George W. Bush. I just have tremendous doubts in bringing back the same team that I feel failed for eight years for another eight.
If you share my doubts about either Hillary’s electability as compared to other candidates or also share general doubts about a return to the Clinton’s style of politics but are supporting any of the other Democratic candidates ask yourself seriously can your candidate beat Hillary Clinton on February 5th. a simple survey of polling, money and endorsements/institutional support shows Hillary Clinton with advantages that No 04 Democratic candidate had in the primary . It is hard to imagine a situation in which Hillary Clinton is seriously out of the race before February 5th. Barack Obama also is clearly in 2nd place in all of these measures.
Before, I particularly address John Edwards supporters, to those supporting any of the other three major candidates, why even allowing for an early state miracle or two. How will the money or organization or argument be potentially strong enough to defeat Hillary Clinton on February 5th. Hillary is not likely to finish below Second in any early state but Iowa. It is also hard to imagine Hillary Clinton getting less than 25% of the vote in any of the contest she enters in any state in the country. It is difficult to imagine, Dodd, Richardson or Biden being able to put together the right combination of factors to really win the nomination on February 5th against Hillary Clinton.
I now wish to speak directly to much of the Blogosphere that is currently supporting John Edwards. Is John Edwards so much more right and more progressive than Barack Obama that it is worth risking Hillary Clinton? The following statement I believe now to be certainly true, John Edwards can not win the nomination without winning in Iowa, and yet he is already in a statistical three way die according to the two most recent polls. John Edwards might still win Iowa but even a win there just allows Edwards to continue it, may even buy him a win in Nevada but it is unlikely to buy him a win in New Hampshire and with what would be more likely than not be a Clinton in New Hampshire, and at best a split with Edwards winning South Carolina and Hillary Clinton winning Florida. Given this best case scenario it is hard to imagine John Edwards winning the nomination on February 5th. Hillary Clinton’s advantages would more likely than not swamp him.
There is no doubt where Hillary Clinton’s Achilles Heel is and that is Iowa. I believe firmly that Tom Villsack got in the race initially to allow Hillary Clinton to skip Iowa, the same way Bill Clinton did in the 1992. When this strategy failed, Villsack was quickly brought on board to give Hillary a chance in Iowa. At this point, a Hillary win in Iowa could come dangerously close to handing her the nomination. However a Barack Obama win in Iowa would give him a fighting chance at winning on February 5th. Obama is simply more likely to beat Hillary Clinton.
In Conclusion
I am convinced Barack Obama would make the President because his broad range of experiences and his intellect are the best possible preparation to be President. I think that he represents the cleanest break with the Rove style of politics and the Bush style of policies. I feel he has most connected with the Youth of America and I think he is a hopeful leader. I also have read the political landscape and believe that even if one were to believe John Edwards is the better progressive, which I clearly do not, the odds of his or any candidate named Hillary Clinton being nominated are too long to take such a risk. I also wish to keep my focus primarily on the House and Senate races so that whoever our next President is, they will have the majorities they need to pass the laws we need, but I felt it important to share the reasoning behind my Presidential Endorsement decision.
Saturday, May 19, 2007
Wednesday, May 9, 2007
End the War, Elect Jim Marlow to Congress in Georgia’s 10th district.
The Netroots community has been drifting. In many ways the unity of purpose and mission that comes from an election cycle has been lost in the ruckus surrounding both the Presidential Primaries and the duels over contrasting strategies on how to best end the War in Iraq. However there is clearly no better way to force the President to change course than to override his veto. Already the Republican Minority Leader John Boehner is discussing the possibility of re-evaluating the issue come September. He should not be allowed to wait. But how can we tie Republican hands.. We can force them by electing Jim Marlow to Congress on June 19th or in the subsequent runoff election.
The vote to override the President failed by roughly 70 House votes. The Republicans in Congress, so far with rare exception, have looked at Iraq in primarily political terms. Stick with the President, paint the Democrats as abandoning the War on Terror, and other such calculations. They tend not to see the 2006 Election as a repudiation of the War in Iraq, but as primarily about corruption or spending or other transient or fixable things. Although Iraq may have been the dagger in the Northeast, this was a region Republican members of Congress had been considering abandoning for some time. “Safe” Republicans need to know they are vulnerable too. To gain the 70 House votes we need to override this President, we need to pick up 60 Republican votes. However there are only 49 Republicans who represent districts in which George Bush got 55% of the vote or less in 2004. Right now roughly 2/3 of the Republican Caucus is sitting pretty, thinking my seat could never belong to a Democrat. Therefore why risk alienating my President and, judging from Thursday’s debate, the next Nominee, by admitting that the Democrats are right about Iraq. This is where Georgia 10 comes in. More Republican members of Congress, particularly Southern members of Congress need to feel Iraq could be the issue that costs them their seat. Of the 49 swing districts held by Republicans, only 6 are in the South. If business as usual prevails in GA 10, i.e. a safe Republican seat just returns to the Republican Party, then no national polling, or debate or rally or phone call will come close to forcing Republican Members of Congress to accept the Political reality of Iraq, let alone the policy reality. However, were this seat, in the one state in 06 to trend slightly GOP., lost to the Democrats or even if Jim Marlow were to come close, the political foundation for folks such as Mitch McConnell or any of the other Southern Republicans Leadership would crumble. Now there’s no doubt that we could lose this race in catastrophic fashion and the Democrats could lose three more Georgia House Seats, and still merrily expand our House and Senate Majorities and capture the White House. But in the meantime nothing will create the divide between the White House and Republicans in Congress needed to End the War, like a loss in Georgia Ten. Let’s get it done.
On the Web
http://marlowforgeorgia.com/
http://brandeis.facebook.com/group.php?gid=2261487274&ref=mf
The vote to override the President failed by roughly 70 House votes. The Republicans in Congress, so far with rare exception, have looked at Iraq in primarily political terms. Stick with the President, paint the Democrats as abandoning the War on Terror, and other such calculations. They tend not to see the 2006 Election as a repudiation of the War in Iraq, but as primarily about corruption or spending or other transient or fixable things. Although Iraq may have been the dagger in the Northeast, this was a region Republican members of Congress had been considering abandoning for some time. “Safe” Republicans need to know they are vulnerable too. To gain the 70 House votes we need to override this President, we need to pick up 60 Republican votes. However there are only 49 Republicans who represent districts in which George Bush got 55% of the vote or less in 2004. Right now roughly 2/3 of the Republican Caucus is sitting pretty, thinking my seat could never belong to a Democrat. Therefore why risk alienating my President and, judging from Thursday’s debate, the next Nominee, by admitting that the Democrats are right about Iraq. This is where Georgia 10 comes in. More Republican members of Congress, particularly Southern members of Congress need to feel Iraq could be the issue that costs them their seat. Of the 49 swing districts held by Republicans, only 6 are in the South. If business as usual prevails in GA 10, i.e. a safe Republican seat just returns to the Republican Party, then no national polling, or debate or rally or phone call will come close to forcing Republican Members of Congress to accept the Political reality of Iraq, let alone the policy reality. However, were this seat, in the one state in 06 to trend slightly GOP., lost to the Democrats or even if Jim Marlow were to come close, the political foundation for folks such as Mitch McConnell or any of the other Southern Republicans Leadership would crumble. Now there’s no doubt that we could lose this race in catastrophic fashion and the Democrats could lose three more Georgia House Seats, and still merrily expand our House and Senate Majorities and capture the White House. But in the meantime nothing will create the divide between the White House and Republicans in Congress needed to End the War, like a loss in Georgia Ten. Let’s get it done.
On the Web
http://marlowforgeorgia.com/
http://brandeis.facebook.com/group.php?gid=2261487274&ref=mf
Monday, February 19, 2007
Month 3 of Tracking the Top 50 House Pick up Chances
With the Presidential race gearing up at a its fastest pace ever, it is extremely important to remember that 2008 is still a chance to strength our majority in the House and as importantly, punish the Republicans who stood with Bush every step of the way until it was politically inconvenient. So this is Month Three.
Top 50
1. MI 7
Republican Tim Walberg
06 Winning Percentage 51%
04 Bush Percentage 54%
Reason for Weakness
Tim Walberg is the most vulnerable Republican member of Congress because running against an opponent in a general election who spent only $ 55,000. He got just 51% in a 54% Bush District. His defeat of a Congressman Schwarz who was widely liked will cause him problems. If the Democrats can find a centrist in the Schwarz model we should be able to defeat this Freshman.
Change: No Change
Tim Walberg continues to vote like a right-winger on everything and his district just isn’t built for that rightwing a record. Joe Schwarz remains the wild card.
2. PA 15
Republican Charlie Dent
06 Winning Percentage 53%
04 Bush Percentage 50%
Reasons for Weakness
Charlie Dent has only been re-elected once in now one of only eight Republicans to hold a seat that John Kerry won. He also was one of only two incumbents in Kerry won districts not to have a well-financed challenger. The fact that he was only able to get 53% under these circumstance means that he is a very good target for defeat.
Change: No Change
Charlie Dent’s vote for the troop surge solidified his vulnerability in my mind. There also appear to many possible Democratic Challengers. Finding a challenger quickly will be important
3.
NV 3
Republican Jon Porter
06 Winning Percentage 48%
04 Bush Percentage 50%
Reasons for Weakness
As a Member of Congress you never want to be getting less than 50% and that is exactly the position that Jon Porter find himself as he confronts life in the minority. The Democrat was able to get 47% with 5% going elsewhere. If the Democrats can recruit a slightly more experience candidate and Ms. Hafen now counts. This race will be extremely close.
Change Up
Reason: Keller move on Iraq will make him less vulnerable; also Nevada’s first Democratic Caucus should give Democrats a great chance to get organized to beat Porter. Democratic Nominee for Gov in 06 Diana Titus is one potential challenger.
4. WA 8
Republican Dave Reichert
06 Winning Percentage 51%
04 Bush Percentage 48%
Reasons for Weakness
A two term Congressman from one of eight Kerry won Republican held seats is by definition vulnerable, also a minority member. That he was able to get only 51% in both cycles adds to that vulnerability. This race will be very tight again. The Presidential should be helpful.
Change Up
Reason. His Iraq vote is particularly damaging in this district. Washington State simply despises the War.
5. FL 8
Republican Ric Keller
06 Winning Percentage 53%
04 Bush Percentage 55%
Reasons for Weakness
You never want to run below the President of Your own Party in your district and this is exactly what happened to Ric Keller. This is particularly bad in a state where Republican loses were less than in other states. His 53% against a good but not great opponent in a peripherally targeted race was trouble enough, but he is now breaking a term limits and already has a republican primary challenger.
Change Down
Reason: His Iraq flip flop will probably benefit him slightly. More importantly he seems to be engaging hard to keep his seat and that makes you inherently
6.
CA 4
Republican John Doolittle
06 Winning Percentage 49%
04 Bush Percentage 61%
Reasons for Weakness
A congressperson never wants to get less than 50%, when that is combined with such a massive running behind of party ID It shows a member with a serious problem. The large amount spent on the legal defense fund might be why. If Charlie Brown gives it another shot this could be a race. We sure should make sure it is.
Change Up
Reason: Charlie Brown is in, corruption remains; this race will be a barn burner to the finish.
7. NJ 7
Republican Mike Ferguson
06 Winning Percentage 49%
04 Bush Percentage 53%
Reasons for Weakness
Another Republican under 50% spells danger for him. He also is still a relative junior member just reaching the minority for the first time. Linda Stender should be encouraged to make the challenge again and regardless this can be a very close race. Ferguson's positions on social issues are also out of step for the district.
Change Up
Reason Iraq will focus more importantly in this district as Ferguson voted to defend the Surge.
8.
6. AZ 1
Republican Rick Renzi
06 Winning Percentage 51%
04 Bush Percentage 54%
Reasons for Weakness
Hints of corruption, a weak re-election performance including running behind the President of your own party and being a relatively junior member now in the minority these are the challenges now faced by Rick Renzi. This is a member who is beatable.
Change Down
Reason: The other districts all seem to have at least possible challengers AZ 1 lacks that currently and Iraq will not cause as much of an issue here. Renzi corruption still makes him vulnerable but he is more likely to escape.
9.
NC 8
Republican Robin Hayes
06 Winning Percentage 50%
04 Bush Percentage 54%
Reasons for Weakness
Winning by less than 500 vote against the same opponent who was generally under-funded last time is all one needs to make the top ten list of vulnerable members, I think Larry Kissell should be the first person on the New Blue Majority List.
Change None
Reason: The race is the same, everyone else has a district fit issue while this a straight even issue.
10.
MI 9
Republican Joe Knollenberg
06 Winning Percentage 52%
04 Bush Percentage 51%
Reasons for Weakness
This was probably the worst under-target in the nation besides PA 15 with less reasons for it. The good news however is that Joe Knollenberg now a minority member spent a huge amount of money his campaign money just to hold on. He is also relatively old so a retirement would not be surprising. Either way this seat should be a top priority. Nancy Skinner was a very good candidate that not only the DCCC but us in the Netroots missed as well. If she runs again I think supporting her would be justified.
Change Up
Reason. Joe Knollenberg is thought of as possibly retiring either way, he is a relic, in a Presidential, change has a real chance to sweep out Knollenberg. DCCC also seems to be very interested.
11. CO 4
Republican Marilyn Musgrave
06 Winning Percentage 46%
04 Bush Percentage 58%
Reasons for Weakness
46% is a terrible number for an Incumbent. It means serious problems particularly when your last election performance before was already 7% the President behind that of the President of your own party.
Change Down
Reason: Colorado seems to have just too much going on, No candidates are emerging and this district is just going to be very tough. Musgrave is still outside the mainstream, though being in the minority actually gives her a smaller chance to say the kind of things that got her in trouble in the first palce.
12. PA 18
Republican Tim Murphy
06 Winning Percentage 58%
04 Bush Percentage 54%
Reasons for Weakness
Scandal appears to be rearing itself into this district in a way that helps us. This combined with a district remarkably similar to PA 4th where Melissa Hart was recently beaten. If not for the scandal this district would rank lower but for now it is a prime target
Change Up
Reason: Hastert appears to be re-emerging as less talk of retirement appears edging this district up.
13. OH 16
Republican Ralph Regula
06 Winning Percentage 59%
04 Bush Percentage 54%
Reasons for Weakness
When a nothing challenger holds you under 60% that is a problem. When you are already in your Eighties that is also a problem. When you are about to drop a tremendous amount in power that spells trouble. The Democrats already have a challenger and more will probably emerge.
Change Up
Reason: Retirement seems like a real possibility and a challenger has already appeared. Ohio seems to be trending Blue also.
14. IL 6
Republican Peter Roskam
06 Winning Percentage 51%
04 Bush Percentage 53%
Reasons for Weakness
This was the DCCC's greatest folly, by choosing a non-local candidate. It allowed the Republicans to frame the race in a way favorable to them and ultimately win it. That said the race was extremely close. A freshman Republican minority member has to beatable. Finding a local candidate will be essential.
Change Up
Reason: Hastert moving down combined with Roskam deep conservative record makes this race the best in Illinois
15. IL 14
Republican Dennis Hastert
06 Winning Percentage 60%
04 Bush Percentage 55%
Reasons for Weakness
How the mighty have fallen. It is quite likely this seat will open up in 08 and if not Dennis Hastert is damaged goods, a bygone relic of an era that is gone. Illinois is also a state trending clearly our way. This is a great chance.
Change: Down
Reason: Hastert looks more and more likely to run and this seat could drop far and fast if he runs for re-election
16.
PA 6
Republican Jim Gelach
06 Winning Percentage 51%
04 Bush Percentage 48%
Reasons for Weakness
51%, three straight elections. It seems as if Jim Gerlach is a survivor which makes him difficult to defeat and yet he clearly has to deal with transition from majority to minority. A good Democratic Candidate will make this a race again and quickly.
Change None
Reason Gerlach is vulnerable for the very same reasons he always has been and that stays the same this month.
17. NM 1
Republican Heather Wilson
06 Winning Percentage 50%
04 Bush Percentage 48%
Reasons for Weakness
Another absolute squeaker and another chance to take a Republican held seat. Heather Wilson is as slick as they come, though people do seem to think that Patricia Madrid made a late debate error. Regardless, she is vulnerable but difficult to beat.
Change Up
Reason: She took the wrong position on Iraq with the resolution and that is going to be a problem.
18.
Republican Barbara Cubin
06 Winning Percentage 48%
04 Bush Percentage 69%
Reasons for Weakness
No one likes Barbara Cubin and her extremely weak showing shows, and yet trying to overcome the Republican tilt of Wyoming is extremely difficult, particularly in a Presidential Year. It would not be surprising to see a better Republican challenge her in the primary.
Change Up
Walsh is dropping like a stone and this district benefits
19.
OH 15
Republican Deborah Pyrce
06 Winning Percentage 50%
04 Bush Percentage 50%
Reasons for Weakness
If you basically run in a tie with your opponent in a Congressional Race, you are vulnerable. However Deb Pryce is a seasoned campaigner and I am readily able to change roles, as her shift out of Republican Leadership shows. This is a tough one but completely winnable.
Change Up
Reason: Moves up as a Result of Walsh
20.
CT 4
Republican Chris Shays
06 Winning Percentage 51%
04 Bush Percentage 46%
Reasons for Weakness
In many ways Chris Shays is like many of the other close races except that he has more long term incumbency and will be expect a challenge. I am from CT so I know of recruiting difficulties. It is a winnable race but one that requires a complete commitment to it. Still only eight Kerry won districts have Republican Incumbents this is one of them.
Change Up
Reason: His Iraq vote was bad for him, he moves up mostly because of Walsh but has a chance to move up more because of his Iraq vote.
21. .NY 13
Republican Vito Fosella
06 Winning Percentage 57%
04 Bush Percentage 55%
Reasons for Weakness
This race moved into the rankings from spot 26 because the DCCC targeted it for ethics violations. New York's Democratic Lean in the last election makes it seem entirely possible that this race will finally get hot.
Change up
The other moved down and Vito’s corruption move him up also.
22. NY 25
Republican Jim Walsh
06 Winning Percentage 51%
04 Bush Percentage 48%
Reasons for Weakness
After not having a real challenger in a long time Jim Walsh was faced with the scare of his life. Democrat Dan Maffei was also not as well funded as he could have been. As one of the eight Republican in Kerry won districts. Jim Walsh can expect a real challenge though unlike other members he will be ready for it.
Change Down
Reason: Flipping on Iraq clearly helps him in his district and make him slightly less vulnerable.
23.
. IL 10
Republican Mark Kirk
06 Winning Percentage 53%
04 Bush Percentage 47%
Reasons for Weakness
The seventh Kerry won district on the lists. Mark Kirk is much like Chris Shays was after 2004. A scare yes, but he still had some breathing room. Picking him off will be very difficult, though Dan Seals giving it another try would be serious.
Change Down
Reason: Mark Kirk leaving of the administration on Iraq is very bad for them but it is very good for his re-election prospects.
24. PA 3
Republican Phil English
06 Winning Percentage 54%
04 Bush Percentage 53%
Reasons for Weakness
This was another under-target in PA , an area which trended toward the party in a serious way. There have also been rumor's abounding about Phil English. Finding a good challenger will be difficult but he is clearly vulnerable because of his underperformance.
Change Down
Reason: Though he didn’t move, he seems less vulnerable because of his Iraq switch.
25.
GA 10
Republican Open
04 Bush Percentage 65%
Reason
Open seats are always likely to flip more than others, the picture on this seat will get more clear soon. But it needs to be included in the top 25 for now. .
Entered Top 25
GA 10
Left Top 25
MI 11
26.
Republican Scott Garrett
06 Winning Percentage 55%
04 Bush Percentage 57%
27. Republican Tom Davis
06 Winning Percentage 55%
04 Bush Percentage 50%
28. OH 1
Republican Steve Chabot
06 Winning Percentage 53%
04 Bush Percentage 51%
29. IA 4
Republican Tom Latham
06 Winning Percentage 57%
04 Bush Percentage 51%
30. NY 3
Republican Peter King
06 Winning Percentage 56%
04 Bush Percentage 53
31. IL 11
Republican Jerry Weller
06 Winning Percentage 55%
04 Bush Percentage 53%
32. . NY 29
Republican Randy Kuhl
06 Winning Percentage 52%
04 Bush Percentage 56%
33. OH 2
Republican Jean Schmidt
06 Winning Percentage 51%
04 Bush Percentage 64%
34.
FL 1O
Republican Bill Young
06 Winning Percentage 66%
04 Bush Percentage 50%
35. DE AL
Republican Mike Castle
06 Winning Percentage 57%
04 Bush Percentage 46%
36. CA 26
Republican David Drier
06 Winning Percentage 57%
04 Bush Percentage 55%
37. OH 3
Republican Mike Turner
06 Winning Percentage 59%
04 Bush Percentage 54%
38. FL 24
Republican Tom Feeney
06 Winning Percentage 58%
04 Bush Percentage 55%
39. NJ 3
Republican Jim Saxton
06 Winning Percentage 58%
04 Bush Percentage 51%
40. MN 6
Republican Michelle Bachmann
06 Winning Percentage 50%
04 Bush Percentage 57%
41. VA 2
Republican Thelma Drake
06 Winning Percentage 52%
04 Bush Winning Percentage 58%
42. OH 12
Republican Pat Tiberi
06 Winning Percentage 58%
04 Bush Percentage 51%
43. NJ 2
Republican Frank LoBiondo
06 Winning Percentage 62%
04 Bush Percentage 50%
44.
NY 23
Republican John McHugh
06 Winning Percentage 63%
04 Bush Percentage 51%
45. OH 14
Republican Steve LaTourette
06 Winning Percentage 58%
04 Bush Percentage 53%
46. CO 6
Republican Tom Tancredo
06 Winning Percentage 59%
04 Bush Percentage 60%
Reason Likely to be open
47. WI 1
Republican Paul Ryan
06 Winning Percentage 63%
04 Bush Percentage 54%
48. ID 1
Republican Bill Salli
06 Winning Percentage 50%
04 Bush Percentage 69%
49 .
MN 3
Republican Jim Ramstad
06 Winning Percentage 65%
04 Bush Percentage 51%
50. MI 4
Republican Dave Camp
06 Winning Percentage 60%
04 Bush Percentage 55%
No changes in Top 50
Top 50
1. MI 7
Republican Tim Walberg
06 Winning Percentage 51%
04 Bush Percentage 54%
Reason for Weakness
Tim Walberg is the most vulnerable Republican member of Congress because running against an opponent in a general election who spent only $ 55,000. He got just 51% in a 54% Bush District. His defeat of a Congressman Schwarz who was widely liked will cause him problems. If the Democrats can find a centrist in the Schwarz model we should be able to defeat this Freshman.
Change: No Change
Tim Walberg continues to vote like a right-winger on everything and his district just isn’t built for that rightwing a record. Joe Schwarz remains the wild card.
2. PA 15
Republican Charlie Dent
06 Winning Percentage 53%
04 Bush Percentage 50%
Reasons for Weakness
Charlie Dent has only been re-elected once in now one of only eight Republicans to hold a seat that John Kerry won. He also was one of only two incumbents in Kerry won districts not to have a well-financed challenger. The fact that he was only able to get 53% under these circumstance means that he is a very good target for defeat.
Change: No Change
Charlie Dent’s vote for the troop surge solidified his vulnerability in my mind. There also appear to many possible Democratic Challengers. Finding a challenger quickly will be important
3.
NV 3
Republican Jon Porter
06 Winning Percentage 48%
04 Bush Percentage 50%
Reasons for Weakness
As a Member of Congress you never want to be getting less than 50% and that is exactly the position that Jon Porter find himself as he confronts life in the minority. The Democrat was able to get 47% with 5% going elsewhere. If the Democrats can recruit a slightly more experience candidate and Ms. Hafen now counts. This race will be extremely close.
Change Up
Reason: Keller move on Iraq will make him less vulnerable; also Nevada’s first Democratic Caucus should give Democrats a great chance to get organized to beat Porter. Democratic Nominee for Gov in 06 Diana Titus is one potential challenger.
4. WA 8
Republican Dave Reichert
06 Winning Percentage 51%
04 Bush Percentage 48%
Reasons for Weakness
A two term Congressman from one of eight Kerry won Republican held seats is by definition vulnerable, also a minority member. That he was able to get only 51% in both cycles adds to that vulnerability. This race will be very tight again. The Presidential should be helpful.
Change Up
Reason. His Iraq vote is particularly damaging in this district. Washington State simply despises the War.
5. FL 8
Republican Ric Keller
06 Winning Percentage 53%
04 Bush Percentage 55%
Reasons for Weakness
You never want to run below the President of Your own Party in your district and this is exactly what happened to Ric Keller. This is particularly bad in a state where Republican loses were less than in other states. His 53% against a good but not great opponent in a peripherally targeted race was trouble enough, but he is now breaking a term limits and already has a republican primary challenger.
Change Down
Reason: His Iraq flip flop will probably benefit him slightly. More importantly he seems to be engaging hard to keep his seat and that makes you inherently
6.
CA 4
Republican John Doolittle
06 Winning Percentage 49%
04 Bush Percentage 61%
Reasons for Weakness
A congressperson never wants to get less than 50%, when that is combined with such a massive running behind of party ID It shows a member with a serious problem. The large amount spent on the legal defense fund might be why. If Charlie Brown gives it another shot this could be a race. We sure should make sure it is.
Change Up
Reason: Charlie Brown is in, corruption remains; this race will be a barn burner to the finish.
7. NJ 7
Republican Mike Ferguson
06 Winning Percentage 49%
04 Bush Percentage 53%
Reasons for Weakness
Another Republican under 50% spells danger for him. He also is still a relative junior member just reaching the minority for the first time. Linda Stender should be encouraged to make the challenge again and regardless this can be a very close race. Ferguson's positions on social issues are also out of step for the district.
Change Up
Reason Iraq will focus more importantly in this district as Ferguson voted to defend the Surge.
8.
6. AZ 1
Republican Rick Renzi
06 Winning Percentage 51%
04 Bush Percentage 54%
Reasons for Weakness
Hints of corruption, a weak re-election performance including running behind the President of your own party and being a relatively junior member now in the minority these are the challenges now faced by Rick Renzi. This is a member who is beatable.
Change Down
Reason: The other districts all seem to have at least possible challengers AZ 1 lacks that currently and Iraq will not cause as much of an issue here. Renzi corruption still makes him vulnerable but he is more likely to escape.
9.
NC 8
Republican Robin Hayes
06 Winning Percentage 50%
04 Bush Percentage 54%
Reasons for Weakness
Winning by less than 500 vote against the same opponent who was generally under-funded last time is all one needs to make the top ten list of vulnerable members, I think Larry Kissell should be the first person on the New Blue Majority List.
Change None
Reason: The race is the same, everyone else has a district fit issue while this a straight even issue.
10.
MI 9
Republican Joe Knollenberg
06 Winning Percentage 52%
04 Bush Percentage 51%
Reasons for Weakness
This was probably the worst under-target in the nation besides PA 15 with less reasons for it. The good news however is that Joe Knollenberg now a minority member spent a huge amount of money his campaign money just to hold on. He is also relatively old so a retirement would not be surprising. Either way this seat should be a top priority. Nancy Skinner was a very good candidate that not only the DCCC but us in the Netroots missed as well. If she runs again I think supporting her would be justified.
Change Up
Reason. Joe Knollenberg is thought of as possibly retiring either way, he is a relic, in a Presidential, change has a real chance to sweep out Knollenberg. DCCC also seems to be very interested.
11. CO 4
Republican Marilyn Musgrave
06 Winning Percentage 46%
04 Bush Percentage 58%
Reasons for Weakness
46% is a terrible number for an Incumbent. It means serious problems particularly when your last election performance before was already 7% the President behind that of the President of your own party.
Change Down
Reason: Colorado seems to have just too much going on, No candidates are emerging and this district is just going to be very tough. Musgrave is still outside the mainstream, though being in the minority actually gives her a smaller chance to say the kind of things that got her in trouble in the first palce.
12. PA 18
Republican Tim Murphy
06 Winning Percentage 58%
04 Bush Percentage 54%
Reasons for Weakness
Scandal appears to be rearing itself into this district in a way that helps us. This combined with a district remarkably similar to PA 4th where Melissa Hart was recently beaten. If not for the scandal this district would rank lower but for now it is a prime target
Change Up
Reason: Hastert appears to be re-emerging as less talk of retirement appears edging this district up.
13. OH 16
Republican Ralph Regula
06 Winning Percentage 59%
04 Bush Percentage 54%
Reasons for Weakness
When a nothing challenger holds you under 60% that is a problem. When you are already in your Eighties that is also a problem. When you are about to drop a tremendous amount in power that spells trouble. The Democrats already have a challenger and more will probably emerge.
Change Up
Reason: Retirement seems like a real possibility and a challenger has already appeared. Ohio seems to be trending Blue also.
14. IL 6
Republican Peter Roskam
06 Winning Percentage 51%
04 Bush Percentage 53%
Reasons for Weakness
This was the DCCC's greatest folly, by choosing a non-local candidate. It allowed the Republicans to frame the race in a way favorable to them and ultimately win it. That said the race was extremely close. A freshman Republican minority member has to beatable. Finding a local candidate will be essential.
Change Up
Reason: Hastert moving down combined with Roskam deep conservative record makes this race the best in Illinois
15. IL 14
Republican Dennis Hastert
06 Winning Percentage 60%
04 Bush Percentage 55%
Reasons for Weakness
How the mighty have fallen. It is quite likely this seat will open up in 08 and if not Dennis Hastert is damaged goods, a bygone relic of an era that is gone. Illinois is also a state trending clearly our way. This is a great chance.
Change: Down
Reason: Hastert looks more and more likely to run and this seat could drop far and fast if he runs for re-election
16.
PA 6
Republican Jim Gelach
06 Winning Percentage 51%
04 Bush Percentage 48%
Reasons for Weakness
51%, three straight elections. It seems as if Jim Gerlach is a survivor which makes him difficult to defeat and yet he clearly has to deal with transition from majority to minority. A good Democratic Candidate will make this a race again and quickly.
Change None
Reason Gerlach is vulnerable for the very same reasons he always has been and that stays the same this month.
17. NM 1
Republican Heather Wilson
06 Winning Percentage 50%
04 Bush Percentage 48%
Reasons for Weakness
Another absolute squeaker and another chance to take a Republican held seat. Heather Wilson is as slick as they come, though people do seem to think that Patricia Madrid made a late debate error. Regardless, she is vulnerable but difficult to beat.
Change Up
Reason: She took the wrong position on Iraq with the resolution and that is going to be a problem.
18.
Republican Barbara Cubin
06 Winning Percentage 48%
04 Bush Percentage 69%
Reasons for Weakness
No one likes Barbara Cubin and her extremely weak showing shows, and yet trying to overcome the Republican tilt of Wyoming is extremely difficult, particularly in a Presidential Year. It would not be surprising to see a better Republican challenge her in the primary.
Change Up
Walsh is dropping like a stone and this district benefits
19.
OH 15
Republican Deborah Pyrce
06 Winning Percentage 50%
04 Bush Percentage 50%
Reasons for Weakness
If you basically run in a tie with your opponent in a Congressional Race, you are vulnerable. However Deb Pryce is a seasoned campaigner and I am readily able to change roles, as her shift out of Republican Leadership shows. This is a tough one but completely winnable.
Change Up
Reason: Moves up as a Result of Walsh
20.
CT 4
Republican Chris Shays
06 Winning Percentage 51%
04 Bush Percentage 46%
Reasons for Weakness
In many ways Chris Shays is like many of the other close races except that he has more long term incumbency and will be expect a challenge. I am from CT so I know of recruiting difficulties. It is a winnable race but one that requires a complete commitment to it. Still only eight Kerry won districts have Republican Incumbents this is one of them.
Change Up
Reason: His Iraq vote was bad for him, he moves up mostly because of Walsh but has a chance to move up more because of his Iraq vote.
21. .NY 13
Republican Vito Fosella
06 Winning Percentage 57%
04 Bush Percentage 55%
Reasons for Weakness
This race moved into the rankings from spot 26 because the DCCC targeted it for ethics violations. New York's Democratic Lean in the last election makes it seem entirely possible that this race will finally get hot.
Change up
The other moved down and Vito’s corruption move him up also.
22. NY 25
Republican Jim Walsh
06 Winning Percentage 51%
04 Bush Percentage 48%
Reasons for Weakness
After not having a real challenger in a long time Jim Walsh was faced with the scare of his life. Democrat Dan Maffei was also not as well funded as he could have been. As one of the eight Republican in Kerry won districts. Jim Walsh can expect a real challenge though unlike other members he will be ready for it.
Change Down
Reason: Flipping on Iraq clearly helps him in his district and make him slightly less vulnerable.
23.
. IL 10
Republican Mark Kirk
06 Winning Percentage 53%
04 Bush Percentage 47%
Reasons for Weakness
The seventh Kerry won district on the lists. Mark Kirk is much like Chris Shays was after 2004. A scare yes, but he still had some breathing room. Picking him off will be very difficult, though Dan Seals giving it another try would be serious.
Change Down
Reason: Mark Kirk leaving of the administration on Iraq is very bad for them but it is very good for his re-election prospects.
24. PA 3
Republican Phil English
06 Winning Percentage 54%
04 Bush Percentage 53%
Reasons for Weakness
This was another under-target in PA , an area which trended toward the party in a serious way. There have also been rumor's abounding about Phil English. Finding a good challenger will be difficult but he is clearly vulnerable because of his underperformance.
Change Down
Reason: Though he didn’t move, he seems less vulnerable because of his Iraq switch.
25.
GA 10
Republican Open
04 Bush Percentage 65%
Reason
Open seats are always likely to flip more than others, the picture on this seat will get more clear soon. But it needs to be included in the top 25 for now. .
Entered Top 25
GA 10
Left Top 25
MI 11
26.
Republican Scott Garrett
06 Winning Percentage 55%
04 Bush Percentage 57%
27. Republican Tom Davis
06 Winning Percentage 55%
04 Bush Percentage 50%
28. OH 1
Republican Steve Chabot
06 Winning Percentage 53%
04 Bush Percentage 51%
29. IA 4
Republican Tom Latham
06 Winning Percentage 57%
04 Bush Percentage 51%
30. NY 3
Republican Peter King
06 Winning Percentage 56%
04 Bush Percentage 53
31. IL 11
Republican Jerry Weller
06 Winning Percentage 55%
04 Bush Percentage 53%
32. . NY 29
Republican Randy Kuhl
06 Winning Percentage 52%
04 Bush Percentage 56%
33. OH 2
Republican Jean Schmidt
06 Winning Percentage 51%
04 Bush Percentage 64%
34.
FL 1O
Republican Bill Young
06 Winning Percentage 66%
04 Bush Percentage 50%
35. DE AL
Republican Mike Castle
06 Winning Percentage 57%
04 Bush Percentage 46%
36. CA 26
Republican David Drier
06 Winning Percentage 57%
04 Bush Percentage 55%
37. OH 3
Republican Mike Turner
06 Winning Percentage 59%
04 Bush Percentage 54%
38. FL 24
Republican Tom Feeney
06 Winning Percentage 58%
04 Bush Percentage 55%
39. NJ 3
Republican Jim Saxton
06 Winning Percentage 58%
04 Bush Percentage 51%
40. MN 6
Republican Michelle Bachmann
06 Winning Percentage 50%
04 Bush Percentage 57%
41. VA 2
Republican Thelma Drake
06 Winning Percentage 52%
04 Bush Winning Percentage 58%
42. OH 12
Republican Pat Tiberi
06 Winning Percentage 58%
04 Bush Percentage 51%
43. NJ 2
Republican Frank LoBiondo
06 Winning Percentage 62%
04 Bush Percentage 50%
44.
NY 23
Republican John McHugh
06 Winning Percentage 63%
04 Bush Percentage 51%
45. OH 14
Republican Steve LaTourette
06 Winning Percentage 58%
04 Bush Percentage 53%
46. CO 6
Republican Tom Tancredo
06 Winning Percentage 59%
04 Bush Percentage 60%
Reason Likely to be open
47. WI 1
Republican Paul Ryan
06 Winning Percentage 63%
04 Bush Percentage 54%
48. ID 1
Republican Bill Salli
06 Winning Percentage 50%
04 Bush Percentage 69%
49 .
MN 3
Republican Jim Ramstad
06 Winning Percentage 65%
04 Bush Percentage 51%
50. MI 4
Republican Dave Camp
06 Winning Percentage 60%
04 Bush Percentage 55%
No changes in Top 50
Saturday, January 20, 2007
The House Republicans who voted against their Districts on Stem Cell Research
I often wonder what value I provide the world by giving it lists of vulnerable Republicans. This is my best an attempt at answer. The Stem Cell Research Bill was Thirty Seven votes short of being veto-proof in the house. There are actually 37 Republicans who voted against it . So if Stem Cell Research is your big issue , these are I believe the members you want to hit the most for it. I might be wrong or right. It is merely my best guess. The point is this is how you move issues, as well just partisanship.[I am a partisan so if you want to beat the 16 Democratic opponents of Stem Cell ask someone else. ] It is useful to know when someone votes against their district if you are trying to mount an issue campaign against them. So without further ado, the Republicans who voted against their district on Stem Cell Research.
Bachmann
Bilirakis
Buchanan
Camp
Chabot
L Diaz-Balart
M. Diaz-Balart
Drake
English
Feeney
Ferguson
Gallegly
Garrett
Hayes
Keller
King [NY]
Kline
Knollenberg
Kuhl
Lahood
Latham
LoBiondo
McCotter
McHugh
Tim Murphy
Renzi
Reynolds
Rogers [MI}
Ros-Lehtinen
Roskam
Ryan
Saxton
Smith[NJ]
Tiberi
Walberg
Walsh
Weller
Wolf
Bachmann
Bilirakis
Buchanan
Camp
Chabot
L Diaz-Balart
M. Diaz-Balart
Drake
English
Feeney
Ferguson
Gallegly
Garrett
Hayes
Keller
King [NY]
Kline
Knollenberg
Kuhl
Lahood
Latham
LoBiondo
McCotter
McHugh
Tim Murphy
Renzi
Reynolds
Rogers [MI}
Ros-Lehtinen
Roskam
Ryan
Saxton
Smith[NJ]
Tiberi
Walberg
Walsh
Weller
Wolf
Friday, January 19, 2007
Rudy Co-Opting Newt or Newt Co-Opting Rudy?
Yesterday Kos, was talking about Rudy, He said the following
“ He's hired some top people, he stole Jim Nussle away from Romney, he appears to have co-opted Gingrich, he's likely to raise great gobs of money (he plans to raise $100M by year's end),”
I however have another more interesting reading of this alliance. Newt Gingrich has been doing a lot of posturing about getting in the 2008 race but almost all of it is posturing. However what if he were to strike an alliance with Rudy that works as follows over the jump.
Rudy has all of the political capital but has the massive liability of being pro-choice and pro-gay rights. Lets for arguments sake he does in fact run and Newt Gingrich were to become a prominent endorser of Rudy. Now you think that might end Newt chance of being President, but in fact it might be his best chance. Newt can ride Rudy’s political capital through the primaries until the Convention. It is however entirely possibly that if Rudy were to well but not too well, he would be mathematically unable to claim the nomination but still have the most delegates. Rudy is in fact the best way to damage both McCain and Romney, because all three share an absolute need to do well in New Hampshire and all three can’t. Even if Rudy were able to squeeze out a bare majority of the delegates it is still possible that the threat of a third party revolt would give rise to the need for another candidate. Who better than Newt Gingrich? Rudy could be given a spot in the new administration or even on the ticket. There is no Republican more respected by all sides of the Republican Party than Newt but slogging through the primaries would be a very difficult thing for him. Why not hitch your wagon with Rudy as means of crushing your other two rivals? Who has a truly better understanding of National Republican Politics, Newt or Rudy? Newt has already been laying the ground work with statements like if a candidate takes up my vision I won’t see the need to run. Rudy has actually been saying similar things. I think Nussle decision to side with Rudy could be the first sign that such an alliance is in the works, and if so. I believe it will be to Newt’s ultimate benefit.
“ He's hired some top people, he stole Jim Nussle away from Romney, he appears to have co-opted Gingrich, he's likely to raise great gobs of money (he plans to raise $100M by year's end),”
I however have another more interesting reading of this alliance. Newt Gingrich has been doing a lot of posturing about getting in the 2008 race but almost all of it is posturing. However what if he were to strike an alliance with Rudy that works as follows over the jump.
Rudy has all of the political capital but has the massive liability of being pro-choice and pro-gay rights. Lets for arguments sake he does in fact run and Newt Gingrich were to become a prominent endorser of Rudy. Now you think that might end Newt chance of being President, but in fact it might be his best chance. Newt can ride Rudy’s political capital through the primaries until the Convention. It is however entirely possibly that if Rudy were to well but not too well, he would be mathematically unable to claim the nomination but still have the most delegates. Rudy is in fact the best way to damage both McCain and Romney, because all three share an absolute need to do well in New Hampshire and all three can’t. Even if Rudy were able to squeeze out a bare majority of the delegates it is still possible that the threat of a third party revolt would give rise to the need for another candidate. Who better than Newt Gingrich? Rudy could be given a spot in the new administration or even on the ticket. There is no Republican more respected by all sides of the Republican Party than Newt but slogging through the primaries would be a very difficult thing for him. Why not hitch your wagon with Rudy as means of crushing your other two rivals? Who has a truly better understanding of National Republican Politics, Newt or Rudy? Newt has already been laying the ground work with statements like if a candidate takes up my vision I won’t see the need to run. Rudy has actually been saying similar things. I think Nussle decision to side with Rudy could be the first sign that such an alliance is in the works, and if so. I believe it will be to Newt’s ultimate benefit.
Thursday, January 18, 2007
The signature post
Second Month of the House races tracking. If anyone has accounts of KOS, MYDD or Swingstate, Please comment. As this is signature post of trying to turn the lasting majority into something besides the pleasure for writing for you guys.
Month 2 of Tracking the Top 50 House Pick up Chances
So this is the second month of tracking the Top 50 House Pick Up Chances in the country. What is the most amazing about a project like this is the amount of new information there already is to switch decisions about races. We have about 7 votes in the House that could be used against certain Republicans in the House . We also have a new DCCC list of where they are looking to go in terms of targeting. In addition to the information from last month I will include change as well reason for change
The Top 50 races
1. MI 7
Republican Tim Walberg
06 Winning Percentage 51%
04 Bush Percentage 54%
Reason for Weakness
Tim Walberg is the most vulnerable Republican member of Congress because running against an opponent in a general election who spent only $ 55,000,. He got just 51% in a 54% Bush District. His defeat of a Congressman Schwarz who was widely liked will cause him problems. If the Democrats can find a centrist in the Schwarz model we should be able to defeat this Freshman.
Change No Change
Reason: Tim Walberg has already cast his lot like the Right Wing Republican we expected including a no vote on the Minimum Wage, the only issue is that lots of Republicans now seem to be circling as well.
2. PA 15
Republican Charlie Dent
06 Winning Percentage 53%
04 Bush Percentage 50%
Reasons for Weakness
Charlie Dent has only been re-elected once in now one of only eight Republicans to hold a seat that John Kerry won . He also was one of only two incumbents in Kerry won districts not to have a well-financed challenger. The fact that he was only able to get 53% under these circumstance means that he is a very good target for defeat.
Change No change
Reason Charlie Dent remains vulnerable and the DCCC now list him a such. This race will remain very hot
3.. FL 8
Republican Ric Keller
06 Winning Percentage 53%
04 Bush Percentage 55%
Reasons for Weakness
You never want to run below the President of Your own Party in your district and this is exactly what happened to Ric Keller. This is particularly bad in a state where Republican loses were less than in other states. His 53% against a good but not great opponent in a peripherally targeted race was trouble enough, but he is now breaking a term limits and already has a republican primary challenger.
Change Up
Reason: On reflection Ric Keller seems even more vulnerable, and his rushing out to oppose Iraq would make sense for someone more vulnerable.
4. NV 3
Republican Jon Porter
06 Winning Percentage 48%
04 Bush Percentage 50%
Reasons for Weakness
As a Member of Congress you never want to be getting less than 50% and that is exactly the position that Jon Porter find himself as he confronts life in the minority. The Democrat was able to get 47% with 5% going else where. If the Democrats can recruit a slightly more experience candidate and Ms. Hafen now counts. This race will be extremely close.
Change Down
Reason: Keller had to move up and therefore Porter had to move down He remains very vulnerable and is DCCC rated as such
5. WA 8
Republican Dave Reichert
06 Winning Percentage ?
04 Bush Percentage 48%
Reasons for Weakness
A two term Congressman from one of eight Kerry won Republican held seats is by definition vulnerable, also a minority member. That he was able to get only 51% in both cycles adds to that vulnerability. This race will be very tight again. The Presidential should be helpful.
Change None
Reason. Reichert remains a Republican in a Democrat district who by an extremely small percentage and who just seems vulnerable
6. AZ 1
Republican Rick Renzi
06 Winning Percentage 51%
04 Bush Percentage 54%
Reasons for Weakness
Hints of corruption, a weak re-election performance including running behind the President of your own party and being a relatively junior member now in the minority these are the challenges now faced by Rick Renzi. This is a member who is beatable.
Change Up
Reason: The DCCC lists it as vulnerable because of ethics issues that alone should make him more vulnerable.
7. CA 4
Republican John Doolittle
06 Winning Percentage 49%
04 Bush Percentage 61%
Reasons for Weakness
A congressperson never wants to get less than 50%, when that is combined with such a massive running behind of party ID It shows a member with a serious problem. The large amount spent on the legal defense fund might be why. If Charlie Brown gives it another shot this could be a race. We sure should make sure it is.
Change Up
Reason: The increased likelihood of Charlie Brown's running again makes Doolittle vulnerable as does the DCCC ranking the district in its ethically challenged catergory.
8. NJ 7
Republican Mike Ferguson
06 Winning Percentage 49%
04 Bush Percentage 53%
Reasons for Weakness
Another Republican under 50% spells danger for him. He also is still a relative junior member just reaching the minority for the first time. Linda Stender should be encouraged to make the challenge again and regardless this can be a very close race. Ferguson's position on social issues are also out of step for the district.
Change Up
Reason: The Democratic Convention in Denver will make beating Marilyn Musgrave more difficult he drop allows this district to move up.
9.NC 8
Republican Robin Hayes
06 Winning Percentage 50%
04 Bush Percentage 54%
Reasons for Weakness
Winning by less than 500 vote against the same opponent who was generally under-funded last time is all one needs to make the top ten list of vulnerable members, I think Larry Kissell should be the first person on the New Blue Majority List.
Change Up
Reason: Same as above
10. CO 4
Republican Marilyn Musgrave
06 Winning Percentage 46%
04 Bush Percentage 58%
Reasons for Weakness
46% is a terrible number for an Incumbent. It means serious problems particularly when your last election performance before was already 7% the President behind that of the President of your own party.
Change Down
Reason: In a traditionally Republican part of a trending Democratic State, CO 4 is likely to re-act slightly against the Democratic Tide. This just make beating Musgrave more difficult and it is more important to win Colorado in the Presidential than beating Marilyn Musgrave.
11. MI 9
Republican Joe Knollenberg
06 Winning Percentage 52%
04 Bush Percentage 51%
Reasons for Weakness
This was probably the worst under-target in the nation besides PA 15 with less reasons for it. The good news however is that Joe Knollenberg now a minority member spent a huge amount of money his campaign money just to hold on. He is also relatively old so a retirement would not be surprising. Either way this seat should be a top priority. Nancy Skinner was a very good candidate that not only the DCCC but us in the Netroots missed as well. If she runs again I think supporting her would be justified.
Change None
Reason, If anything this spot holds the best because it is now a DCCC target.
12. IL 14
Republican Dennis Hastert
06 Winning Percentage 60%
04 Bush Percentage 55%
Reasons for Weakness
How the mighty have fallen. It is quite likely this seat will open up in 08 and if not Dennis Hastert is damaged goods, a bygone relic of an era that is gone. Illinois is also a state trending clearly our way. This is a great chance.
Change None
Reason: Looking at Dennis Hastert's sad face it is hard to believe he will run again and open seats are generally easier to get.
13. PA 18
Republican Tim Murphy
06 Winning Percentage 58%
04 Bush Percentage 54%
Reasons for Weakness
Scandal appears to be rearing itself into this district in a way that helps us. This combined with a district remarkably similar to PA 4th where Melissa Hart was recently beaten. If not for the scandal this district would rank lower but for now it is a prime target
Change Up
Reason: The scandal is now being addressed by the DCCC edging this seat up a spot.
14. OH 16
Republican Ralph Regula
06 Winning Percentage 59%
04 Bush Percentage 54%
Reasons for Weakness
When a nothing challenger holds you under 60% that is a problem. When you are already in your Eighties that is also a problem. When you are about to drop a tremendous amount in power that spells trouble. The Democrats already have a challenger and more will probably emerge.
Change down
Reason The Murphy Scandal moves Regula down a spot no real change.
15 . IL 6
Republican Peter Roskam
06 Winning Percentage 51%
04 Bush Percentage 53%
Reasons for Weakness
This was the DCCC's greatest folly, by choosing a non-local candidate. It allowed the Republicans to frame the race in a way favorable to them and ultimately win it. That said the race was extremely close. A freshman Republican minority member has to beatable. Finding a local candidate will be essential.
Change None
Reason: Roskam has voted like a right winger when his district is far more reasonable. He has to be considered a prime target
16. PA 6
Republican Jim Gelach
06 Winning Percentage 51%
04 Bush Percentage 48%
Reasons for Weakness
51%, three straight elections. It seems as if Jim Gerlach is a survivor which makes him difficult to defeat and yet he clearly has to deal with transition from majority to minority. A good Democratic Candidate will make this a race again and quickly.
Change None
Reason Gerlach is vulnerable for the very same reasons he always has been.
17. NY 25
Republican Jim Walsh
06 Winning Percentage 51%
04 Bush Percentage 48%
Reasons for Weakness
After not having a real challenger in a long time Jim Walsh was faced with the scare of his life. Democrat Dan Maffei was also not as well funded as he could have been. As one of the eight Republican in Kerry won districts. Jim Walsh can expect a real challenge though unlike other members he will be ready for it.
Change None
Reason Same basic reasons, he has been voting with Democrats on everything but stem cell research.
18. NM 1
Republican Heather Wilson
06 Winning Percentage 50%
04 Bush Percentage 48%
Reasons for Weakness
Another absolute squeaker and another chance to take a Republican held seat. Heather Wilson is as slick as they come, though people do seem to think that Patricia Madrid made a late debate error. Regardless, she is vulnerable but difficult to beat.
Change None
Reason She is just a vulnerable as ever but is still as skilled as ever. She is also voting along with Democrats and making noise on Iraq.
19. WY AL
Republican Barbara Cubin
06 Winning Percentage 48%
04 Bush Percentage 69%
Reasons for Weakness
No one likes Barbara Cubin and her extremely weak showing shows, and yet trying to overcome the Republican tilt of Wyoming is extremely difficult, particularly in a Presidential Year. It would not be surprising to see a better Republican challenge her in the primary.
Change None
Reason Cubin keeps voting like a right winger and her value in the minority still drops. Although the Republican inability to really oppose Democrats so far in the House makes a primary less likely no one wants to run to be powerless.
20. OH 15
Republican Deborah Pyrce
06 Winning Percentage 50%
04 Bush Percentage 50%
Reasons for Weakness
If you basically run in a tie with your opponent in a Congressional Race, you are vulnerable. However Deb Pryce is a seasoned campaigner and I am readily able to change roles, as her shift out of Republican Leadership shows. This is a tough one but completely winnable.
Change None
Reason: The DCCC keeps her on the target list and her district might be more Democratic in a Presidential but 06 was a great year for Ohio Democrats. She is already leaving leadership aside and voting with Democrats a ton.
21. CT 4
Republican Chris Shays
06 Winning Percentage 51%
04 Bush Percentage 46%
Reasons for Weakness
In many ways Chris Shays is like many of the other close races except that he has more long term incumbency and will be expect a challenge. I am from CT so I know of recruiting difficulties. It is a winnable race but one that requires a complete commitment to it. Still only eight Kerry won districts have Republican Incumbents this is one of them.
Change None
Reason: Shays voted against Medicare change but otherwise is voting with most of the Democratic agenda. The DCCC still seems interested.
22. IL 10
Republican Mark Kirk
06 Winning Percentage 53%
04 Bush Percentage 47%
Reasons for Weakness
The seventh Kerry won district on the lists. Mark Kirk is much like Chris Shays was after 2004. A scare yes, but he still had some breathing room. Picking him off will be very difficult, though Dan Seals giving it another try would be serious.
Change None
Reason: Mark Kirk is clearly leaving his leadership days behind and voting with Democrats . This makes it easier for him to paint himself as moderate but it is also clearly as the DCCC said
23. NY 13
Republican Vito Fosella
06 Winning Percentage 57%
04 Bush Percentage 55%
Reasons for Weakness
This race moved into the rankings from spot 26 because the DCCC targeted it for ethics violations. New York's Democratic Lean in the last election makes it seem entirely possible that this race will finally get hot.
24. PA 3
Republican Phil English
06 Winning Percentage 54%
04 Bush Percentage 53%
Reasons for Weakness
This was another under-target in PA , an area which trended toward the party in a serious way. There have also been rumor's abounding about Phil English. Finding a good challenger will be difficult but he is clearly vulnerable because of his underperformance.
Change Down
Reasons: Vito's weakness is just slightly greater.
25. MI 11
Republican Thaddeus McCotter
06 Winning Percentage 54%
04 Bush Percentage 53%
Reasons for Weakness
This was another Michigan under-target particularly in relationship to funding. That means the Vulnerable exists and is real. It is going to be a very tough nut to crack, but it fits the profile of many of the Democrat upset victories that happened across the country this year.
Change Down
Reason: Just moved down a spot.
Dropped out of Top 25
Steve Chabot
Entered
Vito Fossella
26. OH 1
Republican Steve Chabot
06 Winning Percentage 53%
04 Bush Percentage 51%
27. NJ 5
Republican Scott Garrett
06 Winning Percentage 55%
04 Bush Percentage 57%
28. IL 11
Republican Jerry Weller
06 Winning Percentage 55%
04 Bush Percentage 53%
29. IA 4
Republican Tom Latham
06 Winning Percentage 57%
04 Bush Percentage 51%
30. NY 3
Republican Peter King
06 Winning Percentage 56%
04 Bush Percentage 53%
31. OH 2
Republican Jean Schmidt
06 Winning Percentage 51%
04 Bush Percentage 64%
32. VA 11
Republican Tom Davis
06 Winning Percentage 55%
04 Bush Percentage 50%
33. NY 29
Republican Randy Kuhl
06 Winning Percentage 52%
04 Bush Percentage 56%
34. FL 1O
Republican Bill Young
06 Winning Percentage 66%
04 Bush Percentage 50%
35. CA 26
Republican David Drier
06 Winning Percentage 57%
04 Bush Percentage 55%
36. OH 3
Republican Mike Turner
06 Winning Percentage 59%
04 Bush Percentage 54%
37. FL 24
Republican Tom Feeney
06 Winning Percentage 58%
04 Bush Percentage 55%
38. DE AL
Republican Mike Castle
06 Winning Percentage 57%
04 Bush Percentage 46%
39. NJ 3
Republican Jim Saxton
06 Winning Percentage 58%
04 Bush Percentage 51%
40. MN 6
Republican Michelle Bachmann
06 Winning Percentage 50%
04 Bush Percentage 57%
41. VA 2
Republican Thelma Drake
06 Winning Percentage 52%
04 Bush Winning Percentage 58%
42. OH 12
Republican Pat Tiberi
06 Winning Percentage 58%
04 Bush Percentage 51%
43.
NY 23
Republican John McHugh
06 Winning Percentage 63%
04 Bush Percentage 51%
44. OH 14
Republican Steve LaTourette
06 Winning Percentage 58%
04 Bush Percentage 53%
45. NJ 2
Republican Frank LoBiondo
06 Winning Percentage 62%
04 Bush Percentage 50%
46. CO 6
Republican Tom Tancredo
06 Winning Percentage 59%
04 Bush Percentage 60%
Reason Likely to be open
47. WI 1
Republican Paul Ryan
06 Winning Percentage 63%
04 Bush Percentage 54%
48.
MN 3
Republican Jim Ramstad
06 Winning Percentage 65%
04 Bush Percentage 51%
49 . ID 1
Republican Bill Salli
06 Winning Percentage 50%
04 Bush Percentage 69%
50. MI 4
Republican Dave Camp
06 Winning Percentage 60%
04 Bush Percentage 55%
Dropped out of Top 50
Ilena Ros-Lethinen
Fred Upton
Enter Top 50
Thelma Drake
Tom Tancredo
Month 2 of Tracking the Top 50 House Pick up Chances
So this is the second month of tracking the Top 50 House Pick Up Chances in the country. What is the most amazing about a project like this is the amount of new information there already is to switch decisions about races. We have about 7 votes in the House that could be used against certain Republicans in the House . We also have a new DCCC list of where they are looking to go in terms of targeting. In addition to the information from last month I will include change as well reason for change
The Top 50 races
1. MI 7
Republican Tim Walberg
06 Winning Percentage 51%
04 Bush Percentage 54%
Reason for Weakness
Tim Walberg is the most vulnerable Republican member of Congress because running against an opponent in a general election who spent only $ 55,000,. He got just 51% in a 54% Bush District. His defeat of a Congressman Schwarz who was widely liked will cause him problems. If the Democrats can find a centrist in the Schwarz model we should be able to defeat this Freshman.
Change No Change
Reason: Tim Walberg has already cast his lot like the Right Wing Republican we expected including a no vote on the Minimum Wage, the only issue is that lots of Republicans now seem to be circling as well.
2. PA 15
Republican Charlie Dent
06 Winning Percentage 53%
04 Bush Percentage 50%
Reasons for Weakness
Charlie Dent has only been re-elected once in now one of only eight Republicans to hold a seat that John Kerry won . He also was one of only two incumbents in Kerry won districts not to have a well-financed challenger. The fact that he was only able to get 53% under these circumstance means that he is a very good target for defeat.
Change No change
Reason Charlie Dent remains vulnerable and the DCCC now list him a such. This race will remain very hot
3.. FL 8
Republican Ric Keller
06 Winning Percentage 53%
04 Bush Percentage 55%
Reasons for Weakness
You never want to run below the President of Your own Party in your district and this is exactly what happened to Ric Keller. This is particularly bad in a state where Republican loses were less than in other states. His 53% against a good but not great opponent in a peripherally targeted race was trouble enough, but he is now breaking a term limits and already has a republican primary challenger.
Change Up
Reason: On reflection Ric Keller seems even more vulnerable, and his rushing out to oppose Iraq would make sense for someone more vulnerable.
4. NV 3
Republican Jon Porter
06 Winning Percentage 48%
04 Bush Percentage 50%
Reasons for Weakness
As a Member of Congress you never want to be getting less than 50% and that is exactly the position that Jon Porter find himself as he confronts life in the minority. The Democrat was able to get 47% with 5% going else where. If the Democrats can recruit a slightly more experience candidate and Ms. Hafen now counts. This race will be extremely close.
Change Down
Reason: Keller had to move up and therefore Porter had to move down He remains very vulnerable and is DCCC rated as such
5. WA 8
Republican Dave Reichert
06 Winning Percentage ?
04 Bush Percentage 48%
Reasons for Weakness
A two term Congressman from one of eight Kerry won Republican held seats is by definition vulnerable, also a minority member. That he was able to get only 51% in both cycles adds to that vulnerability. This race will be very tight again. The Presidential should be helpful.
Change None
Reason. Reichert remains a Republican in a Democrat district who by an extremely small percentage and who just seems vulnerable
6. AZ 1
Republican Rick Renzi
06 Winning Percentage 51%
04 Bush Percentage 54%
Reasons for Weakness
Hints of corruption, a weak re-election performance including running behind the President of your own party and being a relatively junior member now in the minority these are the challenges now faced by Rick Renzi. This is a member who is beatable.
Change Up
Reason: The DCCC lists it as vulnerable because of ethics issues that alone should make him more vulnerable.
7. CA 4
Republican John Doolittle
06 Winning Percentage 49%
04 Bush Percentage 61%
Reasons for Weakness
A congressperson never wants to get less than 50%, when that is combined with such a massive running behind of party ID It shows a member with a serious problem. The large amount spent on the legal defense fund might be why. If Charlie Brown gives it another shot this could be a race. We sure should make sure it is.
Change Up
Reason: The increased likelihood of Charlie Brown's running again makes Doolittle vulnerable as does the DCCC ranking the district in its ethically challenged catergory.
8. NJ 7
Republican Mike Ferguson
06 Winning Percentage 49%
04 Bush Percentage 53%
Reasons for Weakness
Another Republican under 50% spells danger for him. He also is still a relative junior member just reaching the minority for the first time. Linda Stender should be encouraged to make the challenge again and regardless this can be a very close race. Ferguson's position on social issues are also out of step for the district.
Change Up
Reason: The Democratic Convention in Denver will make beating Marilyn Musgrave more difficult he drop allows this district to move up.
9.NC 8
Republican Robin Hayes
06 Winning Percentage 50%
04 Bush Percentage 54%
Reasons for Weakness
Winning by less than 500 vote against the same opponent who was generally under-funded last time is all one needs to make the top ten list of vulnerable members, I think Larry Kissell should be the first person on the New Blue Majority List.
Change Up
Reason: Same as above
10. CO 4
Republican Marilyn Musgrave
06 Winning Percentage 46%
04 Bush Percentage 58%
Reasons for Weakness
46% is a terrible number for an Incumbent. It means serious problems particularly when your last election performance before was already 7% the President behind that of the President of your own party.
Change Down
Reason: In a traditionally Republican part of a trending Democratic State, CO 4 is likely to re-act slightly against the Democratic Tide. This just make beating Musgrave more difficult and it is more important to win Colorado in the Presidential than beating Marilyn Musgrave.
11. MI 9
Republican Joe Knollenberg
06 Winning Percentage 52%
04 Bush Percentage 51%
Reasons for Weakness
This was probably the worst under-target in the nation besides PA 15 with less reasons for it. The good news however is that Joe Knollenberg now a minority member spent a huge amount of money his campaign money just to hold on. He is also relatively old so a retirement would not be surprising. Either way this seat should be a top priority. Nancy Skinner was a very good candidate that not only the DCCC but us in the Netroots missed as well. If she runs again I think supporting her would be justified.
Change None
Reason, If anything this spot holds the best because it is now a DCCC target.
12. IL 14
Republican Dennis Hastert
06 Winning Percentage 60%
04 Bush Percentage 55%
Reasons for Weakness
How the mighty have fallen. It is quite likely this seat will open up in 08 and if not Dennis Hastert is damaged goods, a bygone relic of an era that is gone. Illinois is also a state trending clearly our way. This is a great chance.
Change None
Reason: Looking at Dennis Hastert's sad face it is hard to believe he will run again and open seats are generally easier to get.
13. PA 18
Republican Tim Murphy
06 Winning Percentage 58%
04 Bush Percentage 54%
Reasons for Weakness
Scandal appears to be rearing itself into this district in a way that helps us. This combined with a district remarkably similar to PA 4th where Melissa Hart was recently beaten. If not for the scandal this district would rank lower but for now it is a prime target
Change Up
Reason: The scandal is now being addressed by the DCCC edging this seat up a spot.
14. OH 16
Republican Ralph Regula
06 Winning Percentage 59%
04 Bush Percentage 54%
Reasons for Weakness
When a nothing challenger holds you under 60% that is a problem. When you are already in your Eighties that is also a problem. When you are about to drop a tremendous amount in power that spells trouble. The Democrats already have a challenger and more will probably emerge.
Change down
Reason The Murphy Scandal moves Regula down a spot no real change.
15 . IL 6
Republican Peter Roskam
06 Winning Percentage 51%
04 Bush Percentage 53%
Reasons for Weakness
This was the DCCC's greatest folly, by choosing a non-local candidate. It allowed the Republicans to frame the race in a way favorable to them and ultimately win it. That said the race was extremely close. A freshman Republican minority member has to beatable. Finding a local candidate will be essential.
Change None
Reason: Roskam has voted like a right winger when his district is far more reasonable. He has to be considered a prime target
16. PA 6
Republican Jim Gelach
06 Winning Percentage 51%
04 Bush Percentage 48%
Reasons for Weakness
51%, three straight elections. It seems as if Jim Gerlach is a survivor which makes him difficult to defeat and yet he clearly has to deal with transition from majority to minority. A good Democratic Candidate will make this a race again and quickly.
Change None
Reason Gerlach is vulnerable for the very same reasons he always has been.
17. NY 25
Republican Jim Walsh
06 Winning Percentage 51%
04 Bush Percentage 48%
Reasons for Weakness
After not having a real challenger in a long time Jim Walsh was faced with the scare of his life. Democrat Dan Maffei was also not as well funded as he could have been. As one of the eight Republican in Kerry won districts. Jim Walsh can expect a real challenge though unlike other members he will be ready for it.
Change None
Reason Same basic reasons, he has been voting with Democrats on everything but stem cell research.
18. NM 1
Republican Heather Wilson
06 Winning Percentage 50%
04 Bush Percentage 48%
Reasons for Weakness
Another absolute squeaker and another chance to take a Republican held seat. Heather Wilson is as slick as they come, though people do seem to think that Patricia Madrid made a late debate error. Regardless, she is vulnerable but difficult to beat.
Change None
Reason She is just a vulnerable as ever but is still as skilled as ever. She is also voting along with Democrats and making noise on Iraq.
19. WY AL
Republican Barbara Cubin
06 Winning Percentage 48%
04 Bush Percentage 69%
Reasons for Weakness
No one likes Barbara Cubin and her extremely weak showing shows, and yet trying to overcome the Republican tilt of Wyoming is extremely difficult, particularly in a Presidential Year. It would not be surprising to see a better Republican challenge her in the primary.
Change None
Reason Cubin keeps voting like a right winger and her value in the minority still drops. Although the Republican inability to really oppose Democrats so far in the House makes a primary less likely no one wants to run to be powerless.
20. OH 15
Republican Deborah Pyrce
06 Winning Percentage 50%
04 Bush Percentage 50%
Reasons for Weakness
If you basically run in a tie with your opponent in a Congressional Race, you are vulnerable. However Deb Pryce is a seasoned campaigner and I am readily able to change roles, as her shift out of Republican Leadership shows. This is a tough one but completely winnable.
Change None
Reason: The DCCC keeps her on the target list and her district might be more Democratic in a Presidential but 06 was a great year for Ohio Democrats. She is already leaving leadership aside and voting with Democrats a ton.
21. CT 4
Republican Chris Shays
06 Winning Percentage 51%
04 Bush Percentage 46%
Reasons for Weakness
In many ways Chris Shays is like many of the other close races except that he has more long term incumbency and will be expect a challenge. I am from CT so I know of recruiting difficulties. It is a winnable race but one that requires a complete commitment to it. Still only eight Kerry won districts have Republican Incumbents this is one of them.
Change None
Reason: Shays voted against Medicare change but otherwise is voting with most of the Democratic agenda. The DCCC still seems interested.
22. IL 10
Republican Mark Kirk
06 Winning Percentage 53%
04 Bush Percentage 47%
Reasons for Weakness
The seventh Kerry won district on the lists. Mark Kirk is much like Chris Shays was after 2004. A scare yes, but he still had some breathing room. Picking him off will be very difficult, though Dan Seals giving it another try would be serious.
Change None
Reason: Mark Kirk is clearly leaving his leadership days behind and voting with Democrats . This makes it easier for him to paint himself as moderate but it is also clearly as the DCCC said
23. NY 13
Republican Vito Fosella
06 Winning Percentage 57%
04 Bush Percentage 55%
Reasons for Weakness
This race moved into the rankings from spot 26 because the DCCC targeted it for ethics violations. New York's Democratic Lean in the last election makes it seem entirely possible that this race will finally get hot.
24. PA 3
Republican Phil English
06 Winning Percentage 54%
04 Bush Percentage 53%
Reasons for Weakness
This was another under-target in PA , an area which trended toward the party in a serious way. There have also been rumor's abounding about Phil English. Finding a good challenger will be difficult but he is clearly vulnerable because of his underperformance.
Change Down
Reasons: Vito's weakness is just slightly greater.
25. MI 11
Republican Thaddeus McCotter
06 Winning Percentage 54%
04 Bush Percentage 53%
Reasons for Weakness
This was another Michigan under-target particularly in relationship to funding. That means the Vulnerable exists and is real. It is going to be a very tough nut to crack, but it fits the profile of many of the Democrat upset victories that happened across the country this year.
Change Down
Reason: Just moved down a spot.
Dropped out of Top 25
Steve Chabot
Entered
Vito Fossella
26. OH 1
Republican Steve Chabot
06 Winning Percentage 53%
04 Bush Percentage 51%
27. NJ 5
Republican Scott Garrett
06 Winning Percentage 55%
04 Bush Percentage 57%
28. IL 11
Republican Jerry Weller
06 Winning Percentage 55%
04 Bush Percentage 53%
29. IA 4
Republican Tom Latham
06 Winning Percentage 57%
04 Bush Percentage 51%
30. NY 3
Republican Peter King
06 Winning Percentage 56%
04 Bush Percentage 53%
31. OH 2
Republican Jean Schmidt
06 Winning Percentage 51%
04 Bush Percentage 64%
32. VA 11
Republican Tom Davis
06 Winning Percentage 55%
04 Bush Percentage 50%
33. NY 29
Republican Randy Kuhl
06 Winning Percentage 52%
04 Bush Percentage 56%
34. FL 1O
Republican Bill Young
06 Winning Percentage 66%
04 Bush Percentage 50%
35. CA 26
Republican David Drier
06 Winning Percentage 57%
04 Bush Percentage 55%
36. OH 3
Republican Mike Turner
06 Winning Percentage 59%
04 Bush Percentage 54%
37. FL 24
Republican Tom Feeney
06 Winning Percentage 58%
04 Bush Percentage 55%
38. DE AL
Republican Mike Castle
06 Winning Percentage 57%
04 Bush Percentage 46%
39. NJ 3
Republican Jim Saxton
06 Winning Percentage 58%
04 Bush Percentage 51%
40. MN 6
Republican Michelle Bachmann
06 Winning Percentage 50%
04 Bush Percentage 57%
41. VA 2
Republican Thelma Drake
06 Winning Percentage 52%
04 Bush Winning Percentage 58%
42. OH 12
Republican Pat Tiberi
06 Winning Percentage 58%
04 Bush Percentage 51%
43.
NY 23
Republican John McHugh
06 Winning Percentage 63%
04 Bush Percentage 51%
44. OH 14
Republican Steve LaTourette
06 Winning Percentage 58%
04 Bush Percentage 53%
45. NJ 2
Republican Frank LoBiondo
06 Winning Percentage 62%
04 Bush Percentage 50%
46. CO 6
Republican Tom Tancredo
06 Winning Percentage 59%
04 Bush Percentage 60%
Reason Likely to be open
47. WI 1
Republican Paul Ryan
06 Winning Percentage 63%
04 Bush Percentage 54%
48.
MN 3
Republican Jim Ramstad
06 Winning Percentage 65%
04 Bush Percentage 51%
49 . ID 1
Republican Bill Salli
06 Winning Percentage 50%
04 Bush Percentage 69%
50. MI 4
Republican Dave Camp
06 Winning Percentage 60%
04 Bush Percentage 55%
Dropped out of Top 50
Ilena Ros-Lethinen
Fred Upton
Enter Top 50
Thelma Drake
Tom Tancredo
Tuesday, January 16, 2007
They could have raised the Minimum Wage, but Didn’t
So the Minimum Wage increase got 82 Republican House votes, which on face is encouraging but in my mind it begs an important question. Why did it take nine years and Democratic Control of the House to actually get a Minimum Wage increase passed?
Excluding the two Freshman. 80 Republican Members of Congress voted for the Minimum Wage Increase. Now clearly on some issues small minorities within a party often don’t break with their parties leadership on issues because of the danger . But this was by no means a small minority. 80 Republicans represented more than a third of the entire Caucus at the time. This group could have easily forced the House Leadership to pass a Minimum wage increase that the Senate could have passed without linking it to the Estate tax. I know there are many not in these parts but some in the party who would think that now we are in the Majority we should be less aggressive in defeating Republicans who could be useful to us, better to focus on defending the seats we have. Just remember that it is these 80 Republicans who kept the poorest workers in this country from getting a raise, not because they don’t believe in the Minimum Wage but because they didn’t have the courage to stand up to Tom Delay and Company. It will take a lot more acts of actual political courage for me to believe any of these Members of Congress has truly changed. So to the Shays’, Wilsons’ and Gelachs’ of the world, speaking for no one but myself, I am still coming to send you into the private sector.
The “80” Should haves.
Aderholt
Alexander
Bachus
Biggert
Bonner
Bono
Bozeman
Brown Waite
Capito
Castle
Crenshaw
Davis KY
Jo Ann Davis
L Diaz-Balart
M Diaz-Balart
Duncan
Ehlers
Emerson
English
Everett
Ferguson
Forbes
Fossella
Frelinghuysen
Gerlach
Gilchrest
Gillmor
Goode
Goodlatte
Hayes
Hulshof
Jindal
Johnson IL
Jones NC
Keller
King NY
Kirk
Kuhl
LaHood
Latham
LaTourette
LoBiondo
Marchant
McCotter
McHugh
Miller MI
Moran KS
Tim Murphy
Peterson PA
Petri
Platts
Poe
Pryce OH
Ramstad
Regula
Reichert
Renzi
Rogers AL
Rogers KY
Ros-Lehtinen
Saxton
Schmidt
Shays
Shimkus
Simpson
Smith NJ
Smith TX
Stearns
Turner
Upton
Walden OR
Walsh NY
Wamp
Weller
Whitfield
Wilson
Wolf
Young AK
Young FL
Excluding the two Freshman. 80 Republican Members of Congress voted for the Minimum Wage Increase. Now clearly on some issues small minorities within a party often don’t break with their parties leadership on issues because of the danger . But this was by no means a small minority. 80 Republicans represented more than a third of the entire Caucus at the time. This group could have easily forced the House Leadership to pass a Minimum wage increase that the Senate could have passed without linking it to the Estate tax. I know there are many not in these parts but some in the party who would think that now we are in the Majority we should be less aggressive in defeating Republicans who could be useful to us, better to focus on defending the seats we have. Just remember that it is these 80 Republicans who kept the poorest workers in this country from getting a raise, not because they don’t believe in the Minimum Wage but because they didn’t have the courage to stand up to Tom Delay and Company. It will take a lot more acts of actual political courage for me to believe any of these Members of Congress has truly changed. So to the Shays’, Wilsons’ and Gelachs’ of the world, speaking for no one but myself, I am still coming to send you into the private sector.
The “80” Should haves.
Aderholt
Alexander
Bachus
Biggert
Bonner
Bono
Bozeman
Brown Waite
Capito
Castle
Crenshaw
Davis KY
Jo Ann Davis
L Diaz-Balart
M Diaz-Balart
Duncan
Ehlers
Emerson
English
Everett
Ferguson
Forbes
Fossella
Frelinghuysen
Gerlach
Gilchrest
Gillmor
Goode
Goodlatte
Hayes
Hulshof
Jindal
Johnson IL
Jones NC
Keller
King NY
Kirk
Kuhl
LaHood
Latham
LaTourette
LoBiondo
Marchant
McCotter
McHugh
Miller MI
Moran KS
Tim Murphy
Peterson PA
Petri
Platts
Poe
Pryce OH
Ramstad
Regula
Reichert
Renzi
Rogers AL
Rogers KY
Ros-Lehtinen
Saxton
Schmidt
Shays
Shimkus
Simpson
Smith NJ
Smith TX
Stearns
Turner
Upton
Walden OR
Walsh NY
Wamp
Weller
Whitfield
Wilson
Wolf
Young AK
Young FL
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