The Ten House Candidates who should run again.

I will admit vacation has been slowing the pace down here. I will note that the quality at least as judge by the experts contiuntes to excell. I will be honest and say if I got comments on what I write it would encourage more writing. With that, here is today's post.


The Ten House Candidates who should run again.

Now it is entirely possible that there are more than Ten Democratic Challengers who ran this time who would make ideal candidates against the same opponent in 2008. It is important to remember that out of 30 Democratic pick ups, just four came in re-matches, and in challenger rematches the two most closely watched, PA 6 and CT 4 were rare loses in an otherwise near East coast sweep. It is important to remember that simply being the nominee last time should not mean the nomination should be yours for the asking the next time. That said the sheer number of close calls means that some of these candidates deserve another look. It is that sprit I present the Ten who should run again, as well five honorable mentions candidates who should be viewed seriously if not automatically favorably if they declare.

1. Larrry Kissell NC 8
The fact that Larry Kissell has already committed to another run makes this choice relatively simple. Still when use lose by around 4,00 votes against a long term incumbent with that large a spending gap something is happening. Kissell was supposed to be a third tier nobody and now he is a clear netroots hero. Congressman Robin Hayes will also find life more difficult with no one there who can tell him exactly how to vote. The district is winnable by the numbers also. Larry Kissell for congress.

2. Nancy Skinner MI 9
This is probably the greatest under-target in the nation and for that very reason Nancy Skinner should be given another shot in this district should she want it. One huge accomplishment of hers was to run through the considerable about of money Congressman Knollenberg had stored up over years and years. She ran a very good race and needs another chance. It also be noted this race was missed almost completely by the mainstream blog’s that could have pushed it higher up. We might have missed a win here, as surely as the DCCC did.

3. Charlie Brown CA 4
This is a somewhat no brainier as the cloud of doubt of Congressman Doolittle continues to grow. Charlie Brown was able to run an extremely competitive race and He makes a great contrast to John Doolittle. I am excited for round 2

4. Linda Stender NJ 7
This was a very close race that and I believe Linda Stender to be the best possible candidate. Mike Ferguson is the type of member who gets weaker in the minority. Linda Stender could very well knock him off.

5. Darcy Burner WA 8
This race is extremely similar to the race just above. Relatively junior members just hold on and with a change in climate after the midterm, Congressman Reichert doesn’t have all his friends to get his back. He seems more suitable for the transition than Mike Ferguson, but the district is more democratic. Darcy Burner proved herself as a candidate this cycle.

6. Dan Seals IL 10
This was a slight under target and the 53% for Mark Kirk shows that might well have been a mistake. Dan Seals ran a very good campaign with a positive results and there are already rumblings that Mark Kirk is going to try and move up or out. Dan Seals should go right back to putting pressure on Congressman Kirk
7. Tessa Hafen NV 3
Probably one of the more heart-breaking loses in the country as Jon Porter won with only 47% of the Vote. Tessa Hafen got 46% if she can just find a way to consolidate the Anti-Porter vote. I think she could very well. She certainly earned the right by taking a race others has given up on.

8. Gary Truaner WY AL
Barbara Cubin is one of the worst members of Congress by fire. She ran under 50% last time and is generally not liked. This will potentially make her vulnerable to a Republican primary challenger who would then be more likely to win the general. Gary Truaner did run a great campaign but Wyoming is just an extremely difficult place to pull off.

9. Larry Grant ID 1
This is probably the greatest shame because it is hard to beat a Republican incumbent in Idaho. No matter who it is. That Bill Sali won means he is going to be extremely difficult to beat now that he is a Congressman. Still Larry Grant’s tough fight in the state would be a great value too it.

10. Charles Dertinger PA 15
This is probably my most difficult call. Charlie Dent needs a really good challenger. Charles Dertinger did everything right, except he raised no money. He could very well be the next cycle’s Paul Hodes but he also might simply be someone who can’t raise money at all. He would benefit from a primary challenger who will force him to raise some money, but he should probably be given another shot. No matter what happens this district needs to have a giant bulls-eye on it.



Honorable Mentions
Erica Massa NY 29, Dan Maffei NY 25 John Pavich IL 11 NC 5 Roger Sharpe Mary Jo Kilroy OH 15

Last Week update

I have no really brillant idea today,so this is mostly an update from the information from Last week. First off, the LM is now 1-1 with endorsements, while it was sad to see William Jefferson re-elect this was more than made up for it by Ciro Rodriquez surprise victory over Henry Bonilla. Evan Bayh dropped out of the the Presidential race and then there is, of course Senator Johnson's health. I also wanted to mention to my loyal readers that yesterday's blog post ended up on the frontpage of Three National blogs. So we are making progress. I will have more exiciting posts in the future but for now thanks for reading.

Hope it was worth the wait

So I hope everyone here is ok with the wait. This post will become the bedrock of the Lasting Majority. I will give more content for my loyal readers. But this is the basis of targeting and my belief about how to run a national house campaign.


Targeting 50 Republican House Seats from now until Election Day 08

So this is the most ambitious blogging project I have taken on and am quite excited about it. I will be bringing you, the readers of Swing State, Dailykos, MYDD and the LastingMajority, An update on the 50 most likely Republican Seats to flip to Democratic. Updating from today, once a month, all the Way to November 08.
First let me say why I think this is so important. The blogs role must play the role of offense as the DCCC might fade back into incumbent defense. We are very good on offense. This post is attempt to say which seats need to be targeted from the beginning of the Cycle and adjusting as circumstance change.
In addition to just the 50 seat targeting, I provide lists of all Republican Incumbents who got less than 60% and 55%, as well as the districts which sent a Republican to Congress that gave George Bush 55% or less of the vote in 2004. This and a few open seats are from where got the list. For the top 25 targeted races, I gave the reason for weakness. In the bottom 25, I just include information not context . I hope this will aid the Netroots Community in make even better targeting decisions.

The Top 50 races

1. MI 7
Republican Tim Walberg
06 Winning Percentage 51%
04 Bush Percentage 54%
Reason for Weakness
Tim Walberg is the most vulnerable Republican member of Congress because running against an opponent in a general election who spent only $ 55,000,. He got just 51% in a 54% Bush District. His defeat of a Congressman Schwarz who was widely liked will cause him problems. If the Democrats can find a centrist in the Schwarz model we should be able to defeat this Freshman.

2. PA 15
Republican Charlie Dent
06 Winning Percentage 53%
04 Bush Percentage 50%
Reasons for Weakness
Charlie Dent has only been re-elected once in now one of only eight Republicans to hold a seat that John Kerry won . He also was one of only two incumbents in Kerry won districts not to have a well-financed challenger. The fact that he was only able to get 53% under these circumstance means that he is a very good target for defeat.

3. NV 3
Republican Jon Porter
06 Winning Percentage 48%
04 Bush Percentage 50%
Reasons for Weakness
As a Member of Congress you never want to be getting less than 50% and that is exactly the position that Jon Porter find himself as he confronts life in the minority. The Democrat was able to get 47% with 5% going else where. If the Democrats can recruit a slightly more experience candidate and Ms. Hafen now counts. This race will be extremely close.

4. FL 8
Republican Ric Keller
06 Winning Percentage 53%
04 Bush Percentage 55%
Reasons for Weakness
You never want to run below the President of Your own Party in your district and this is exactly what happened to Ric Keller. This is particularly bad in a state where Republican loses were less than in other states. His 53% against a good but not great opponent in a peripherally targeted race was trouble enough, but he is now breaking a term limits and already has a republican primary challenger.


5. WA 8
Republican Dave Reichert
06 Winning Percentage ?
04 Bush Percentage 48%
Reasons for Weakness
A two term Congressman from one of eight Kerry won Republican held seats is by definition vulnerable, also a minority member. That he was able to get only 51% in both cycles adds to that vulnerability. This race will be very tight again. The Presidential should be helpful.


6. CO 4
Republican Marilyn Musgrave
06 Winning Percentage 46%
04 Bush Percentage 58%
Reasons for Weakness
46% is a terrible number for an Incumbent. It means serious problems particularly when your last election performance before was already 7% the President behind that of the President of your own party.

7. AZ 1
Republican Rick Renzi
06 Winning Percentage 51%
04 Bush Percentage 54%
Reasons for Weakness
Hints of corruption, a weak re-election performance including running behind the President of your own party and being a relatively junior member now in the minority these are the challenges now faced by Rick Renzi. This is a member who is beatable.

8. CA 4
Republican John Doolittle
06 Winning Percentage 49%
04 Bush Percentage 61%
Reasons for Weakness
A congressperson never wants to get less than 50%, when that is combined with such a massive running behind of party ID It shows a member with a serious problem. The large amount spent on the legal defense fund might be why. If Charlie Brown gives it another shot this could be a race. We sure should make sure it is.

9. NJ 7
Republican Mike Ferguson
06 Winning Percentage 49%
04 Bush Percentage 53%
Reasons for Weakness
Another Republican under 50% spells danger for him. He also is still a relative junior member just reaching the minority for the first time. Linda Stender should be encouraged to make the challenge again and regardless this can be a very close race. Ferguson’s position on social issues are also out of step for the district.

10.NC 8
Republican Robin Hayes
06 Winning Percentage 50%
04 Bush Percentage 54%
Reasons for Weakness
Winning by less than 500 vote against the same opponent who was generally under-funded last time is all one needs to make the top ten list of vulnerable members, I think Larry Kissell should be the first person on the New Blue Majority List.


11. MI 9
Republican Joe Knollenberg
06 Winning Percentage 52%
04 Bush Percentage 51%
Reasons for Weakness
This was probably the worst under-target in the nation besides PA 15 with less reasons for it. The good news however is that Joe Knollenberg now a minority member spent a huge amount of money his campaign money just to hold on. He is also relatively old so a retirement would not be surprising. Either way this seat should be a top priority. Nancy Skinner was a very good candidate that not only the DCCC but us in the Netroots missed as well. If she runs again I think supporting her would be justified.

12. IL 14
Republican Dennis Hastert
06 Winning Percentage 60%
04 Bush Percentage 55%
Reasons for Weakness
How the mighty have fallen. It is quite likely this seat will open up in 08 and if not Dennis Hastert is damaged goods, a bygone relic of an era that is gone. Illinois is also a state trending clearly our way. This is a great chance.

13. OH 16
Republican Ralph Regula
06 Winning Percentage 59%
04 Bush Percentage 54%
Reasons for Weakness
When a nothing challenger holds you under 60% that is a problem. When you are already in your Eighties that is also a problem. When you are about to drop a tremendous amount in power that spells trouble. The Democrats already have a challenger and more will probably emerge.

14. PA 18
Republican Tim Murphy
06 Winning Percentage 58%
04 Bush Percentage 54%
Reasons for Weakness
Scandal appears to be rearing itself into this district in a way that helps us. This combined with a district remarkably similar to PA 4th where Melissa Hart was recently beaten. If not for the scandal this district would rank lower but for now it is a prime target

15. IL 6
Republican Peter Roskam
06 Winning Percentage 51%
04 Bush Percentage 53%
Reasons for Weakness
This was the DCCC’s greatest folly, by choosing a non-local candidate. It allowed the Republicans to frame the race in a way favorable to them and ultimately win it. That said the race was extremely close. A freshman Republican minority member has to beatable. Finding a local candidate will be essential.


16. PA 6
Republican Jim Gelach
06 Winning Percentage 51%
04 Bush Percentage 48%
Reasons for Weakness
51%, three straight elections. It seems as if Jim Gerlach is a survivor which makes him difficult to defeat and yet he clearly has to deal with transition from majority to minority. A good Democratic Candidate will make this a race again and quickly.

17. NY 25
Republican Jim Walsh
06 Winning Percentage 51%
04 Bush Percentage 48%
Reasons for Weakness
After not having a real challenger in a long time Jim Walsh was faced with the scare of his life. Democrat Dan Maffei was also not as well funded as he could have been. As one of the eight Republican in Kerry won districts. Jim Walsh can expect a real challenge though unlike other members he will be ready for it.


18. NM 1
Republican Heather Wilson
06 Winning Percentage 50%
04 Bush Percentage 48%
Reasons for Weakness
Another absolute squeaker and another chance to take a Republican held seat. Heather Wilson is as slick as they come, though people do seem to think that Patricia Madrid made a late debate error. Regardless, she is vulnerable but difficult to beat.

19. WY AL
Republican Barbara Cubin
06 Winning Percentage 48%
04 Bush Percentage 69%
Reasons for Weakness
No one likes Barbara Cubin and her extremely weak showing shows, and yet trying to overcome the Republican tilt of Wyoming is extremely difficult, particularly in a Presidential Year. It would not be surprising to see a better Republican challenge her in the primary.


20. OH 15
Republican Deborah Pyrce
06 Winning Percentage 50%
04 Bush Percentage 50%
Reasons for Weakness
If you basically run in a tie with your opponent in a Congressional Race, you are vulnerable. However Deb Pryce is a seasoned campaigner and I am readily able to change roles, as her shift out of Republican Leadership shows. This is a tough one but completely winnable

21. CT 4
Republican Chris Shays
06 Winning Percentage 51%
04 Bush Percentage 46%
Reasons for Weakness
In many ways Chris Shays is like many of the other close races except that he has more long term incumbency and will be expect a challenge. I am from CT so I know of recruiting difficulties. It is a winnable race but one that requires a complete commitment to it. Still only eight Kerry won districts have Republican Incumbents this is one of them.

22. IL 10
Republican Mark Kirk
06 Winning Percentage 53%
04 Bush Percentage 47%
Reasons for Weakness
The seventh Kerry won district on the lists. Mark Kirk is much like Chris Shays was after 2004. A scare yes, but he still had some breathing room. Picking him off will be very difficult, though Dan Seals giving it another try would be serious.



23. PA 3
Republican Phil English
06 Winning Percentage 54%
04 Bush Percentage 53%
Reasons for Weakness
This was another under-target in PA , an area which trended toward the party in a serious way. There have also been rumor’s abounding about Phil English. Finding a good challenger will be difficult but he is clearly vulnerable because of his underperformance.


24. OH 1
Republican Steve Chabot
06 Winning Percentage 53%
04 Bush Percentage 51%
Reasons for Weakness
Steve Chabot had a real scare this time and came away with it quite well. He might be more vulnerable in a Presidential and the close nature of the district means it is winnable. One possible candidate is Paul Hackett, draft him and you have a race. This race risks slipping a way.


25. MI 11
Republican Thaddeus McCotter
06 Winning Percentage 54%
04 Bush Percentage 53%
Reasons for Weakness
This was another Michigan under-target particularly in relationship to funding. That means the Vulnerable exists and is real. It is going to be a very tough nut to crack, but it fits the profile of many of the Democrat upset victories that happened across the country this year.


26. NY 13
Republican Vito Fosella
06 Winning Percentage 57%
04 Bush Percentage 55%

27. NJ 5
Republican Scott Garrett
06 Winning Percentage 55%
04 Bush Percentage 57%


28. IL 11
Republican Jerry Weller
06 Winning Percentage 55%
04 Bush Percentage 53%


29. IA 4
Republican
06 Winning Percentage 57%
04 Bush Percentage 51%


30. NY 3
Republican Peter King
06 Winning Percentage 56%
04 Bush Percentage 53%


31. OH 2
Republican Jean Schmidt
06 Winning Percentage 51%
04 Bush Percentage 64%


32. VA 11
Republican Tom Davis
06 Winning Percentage 55%
04 Bush Percentage 50%


33. FL 1O
Republican Bill Young
06 Winning Percentage 66%
04 Bush Percentage 50%


34. CA 26
Republican David Drier
06 Winning Percentage 57%
04 Bush Percentage 55%


35. OH 3
Republican Mike Turner
06 Winning Percentage 59%
04 Bush Percentage 54%


36. NY 29
Republican Randy Kuhl
06 Winning Percentage 52%
04 Bush Percentage 56%


37. FL 24
Republican Tom Feeney
06 Winning Percentage 58%
04 Bush Percentage 55%


38. DE AL
Republican Mike Castle
06 Winning Percentage 57%
04 Bush Percentage 46%


39. NJ 3
Republican Jim Saxton
06 Winning Percentage 58%
04 Bush Percentage 51%


40. MN 6
Republican Michelle Bachmann
06 Winning Percentage 50%
04 Bush Percentage 57%


41. OH 12
Republican Pat Tiberi
06 Winning Percentage 58%
04 Bush Percentage 51%



42. NY 23
Republican John McHugh
06 Winning Percentage 63%
04 Bush Percentage 51%


43. OH 14
Republican Steve LaTourette
06 Winning Percentage 58%
04 Bush Percentage 53%


44. NJ 2
Republican Frank LoBiondo
06 Winning Percentage 62%
04 Bush Percentage 50%


45. WI 1
Republican Paul Ryan
06 Winning Percentage 63%
04 Bush Percentage 54%


46 MN 3
Republican Jim Ramstad
06 Winning Percentage 65%
04 Bush Percentage 51%


47. MI 4
Republican Dave Camp
06 Winning Percentage 60%
04 Bush Percentage 55%


48. ID 1
Republican Bill Salli
06 Winning Percentage 50%
04 Bush Percentage 69%


49. FL 18
Republican Ileana Ros-Lehtinen
06 Winning Percentage 62%
04 Bush Percentage 54%


50. MI 6
Republican Fred Upton
06 Winning Percentage 61%
04 Bush Percentage 53%



Republican Incumbents under 60%
Total 75
AK AL Don Young 57%
AZ 1 Rick Renzi 51%
AZ 2 Trent Franks 58%
AZ 3 John Shadegg 58%
CA 3 Dan Lungren 59%
CA 4 John Doolittle 49%
CA 26 David Drier 59%
CA 45 Mary Bono 59%
CA 46 Dana Rohrabacher 59%
CA 50 Brian Bilbray 54%
CO 4 Marilyn Musgrave 46%
C0 6 Tom Tancredo 59%
CT 4 Chris Shays 51%
DE AL Mike Castle 57%
FL 8 Rich Keller 53%
FL 15 Dave Weldon 56%
FL 21 Lincoln Diaz-Balart 59%
FL 24 Tom Feeney 58%
FL 25 Mario Diaz-Balart 58%
IL 10 Mark Kirk 53%
IL 11 Jerry Weller 55%
IL 13 Judy Biggert 58%
IL 15 Tim Johnson 58%
IN 3 Mark Souder 54%
IA 4 Tom Latham 57%
IA 5 Steve King 58%
KY 2 Ron Lewis 55%
KY 4 Geoff Davis 51%
LA 4 Jim McCrery 58%
MD 6 Roscoe Bartlett 59%
MI 8 Mike Rogers 55%
MI 9 Joe Knollenberg 52%
MI 11 Thaddeus McCotter 54%
MN 2 John Kline 56%
MT AL Dennis Rehberg 59%
NE 1 Jeff Fortenberry 59%
NE 2 Lee Terry 55%
NV 3 Jon Porter 48%
NJ 3 Jim Saxton 58%
NJ 5 Scott Garrett 55%
NJ 7 Mike Ferguson 49%
NM 1 Heather Wilson 50%
NY 3 Pete King 56%
NY 13 Vito Fossella 57%
NY 25 Jim Walsh 51%
NY 26 Tom Reynolds 52%
NY 29 Randy Kuhl 52%
NC 5 Virginia Foxx 57%
NC 8 Robin Hayes 50%
OH 1 Steve Chabot 53%
OH 2 Jean Schmidt 51%
OH 3 Mike Turner 59%
OH 5 Paul Gillmor 57%
OH 12 Pat Tiberi 58%
OH 14 Steve LaTourette 58%
OH 15 Deborah Pryce 50%
OH 16 Ralph Regula 59%
PA 3 Phil English 54%
PA 6 Jim Gerlach 51%
PA 15 Chrales Dent 53%
PA 16 Joe Pitts 57%
PA 18 Tim Murphy 58%
TX 7 John Culberson 59%
TX 10 Mike McCaul 55%
TX 31 John Carter 58%
TX 32 Pete Sessions 57%
UT 3 Christopher Cannon 58%
VA 2 Thelma Drake 51%
VA 5 Virgil Goode 59%
VA 10 Frank Wolf 57%
VA 11 Tom Davis 55%
WA 5 Cathy McMorris 56%
WA 8 Dave Reichert
WV 2 Shelley Moore-Capito 57%
WY AL Barbara Cubin 48%





Republican Incumbents 55% or under
Total 34
AZ 1 Rick Renzi 51%
CA 4 John Doolittle 49%
CA 50 Brain Bilbray 54%
CO 4 Marilyn Musgrave 46%
CT 4 Chris Shays 51%
FL 8 Rich Keller 53%
IL 10 Mark Kirk 53%
IL 11 Jerry Weller 55%
IN 3 Mark Souder 54%
KY 2 Ron Lewis 55%
KY 4 Geoff Davis 51%
MI 8 Mike Rogers 55%
MI 9 Joe Knollenberg 52%
MI 11 Thaddeus McCotter 54%
NE 2 Lee Terry 55%
NV 3 Jon Porter 48%
NJ 5 Scott Garrett 55%
NJ 7 Mike Ferguson 49%
NM 1 Heather Wilson 50%
NY 25 Jim Walsh 51%
NY 26 Tom Reynolds 52%
NY 29 Randy Kuhl 52%
NC 8 Robin Hayes 50%
OH 1 Steve Chabot 53%
OH 2 Jean Schmidt 51%
OH 15 Deborah Pryce 50%
PA 3 Phil English 54%
PA 6 Jim Gerlach 51%
PA 15 Charlie Dent 53%
TX 10 Mike McCaul 55%
VA 2 Thelma Drake 51%
VA 11 Tom Davis 55%
WA 8 Dave Reichert
WY AL Barbara Cubin 48%






Republican held District where George Bush got 55% of the vote or less
AZ 1
CA 26
CA 50
CT 4
DE AL
FL 8
FL 10
FL 18
FL 24
IL 6
IL 10
IL 11
IL 13
IL 14
IL 16
IA 4
MI 4
MI 6
MI 7
MI 8
MI 9
MI 11
MN 2
MN 3
NV 3
NJ 2
NJ 3
NJ 7
NM 1
NY 3
NY 13
NY 23
NY 25
NY 26
NC 8
OH 1
OH 3
OH 12
OH 14
OH 15
OH 16
PA 3
PA 6
PA 15
PA 18
VA 10
VA 11
WA 8
WI 1

Over 60% for Incumbent
FL 10
FL 18
IL 14
IL 16
MI 4
MI 6
MN 3
NJ 2
NY 23
WI 1


Other Potentially Vulnerable Freshman
ID 1 Bill Sali
MN 6 Michelle Bachmann
FL 13 Vern Buchann
NV 2 Dean Heller
FL 9 Gus Billikrais

Light Posting

So this is my exam period, so I will probably not be posting much untill after the 15th. Don't be discouraged after that I will have a month where you will get the very best on here. There is a chance for some posting over this exam period but as said it will be light.
Everyone have a good break or holiday.
Jason

David Sirota is wrong, There are just Democrats and Republicans

I like David Sirota’s piece entitled the People Party vs. The Money Party. I really do. It is direct, straight forward and gives a picture of the world which is clear and concise it just happens to be wrong. He uses many simple rhetorical tactics designed to make it almost impossible to disagree with him, and yet I still found a way. These tactics in many ways are used to shore up some the weakness of his argument. My argument is simple, Democrats are better for the average person on economic issues than Republicans. This is true of all but a few Democrats and there is simply no reason to create a division in the party where none exists.

Lets start with this quote “The fact that our nation's politics is divided not between Democrats and Republicans but between the People Party and the Money Party is obvious to anyone who looks at the political system honestly” This is a tactic that is of the right. You can’t disagree with David Sirota’s view of the world and be honest, therefore before I get in another word in, I am already inherently dishonest, you don’t need to read anymore. If you would do this lying crook a favor please read on.

First comes Deification
Mr. Sirota then goes on to lionize hero’s of the People’s Party. I don’t know as much about these leaders as him, as with all attempts to create hero’s in some cases hero’s will fall. Jon Tester and Jim Webb have never cast a vote in the Senate. Now I don’t doubt they are Populist, but I think time needs to pass before there roles are clear. So far I am with him.

Next comes vilification.
Chuck Schumer is a villain because he talked about a report that suggest that some post-Enron corporate might have been overreaching, I am not making the argument that theses reforms are overreaching merely that was all the evidence one needed to make Chuck Schumer a villain. Ignore Chuck Schumer’s role at the DSCC where he clearly helped elect People Party Hero’s Webb Brown and Tester. In Webb’s case endorsing in a primary against a man Harris Miller who would clearly be likely to fall into what Mr. Sirota would call the Money Party.
Rahm Emanuel is a villain because he helped Clinton pass NAFTA and he raised money from Wall Street. Now I think it is very important here to understand that Trade is a very complicated issue, one that I don’t think can be used as a test of morals. So even if you oppose trade you can’t call those for it evil. On the issues of Wall Street money, I would agree with Mr. Sirota on the need for public financing of elections, I think it would do a lot of good, but until that happens Democrats are wise to keep financial pace with Republicans. Again, this doesn’t mean Rahm is a saint but again there is zero mention by Sirota of his chairing of the DCCC or for that mater his last minute independent expenditure on behalf of newly minted People Party Member Nancy Boyda

Steny Hoyer is a villain because he wants to raise money on K Street. That is all you need to know that someone is a villain. That fact he went everywhere and raised a ton of money on behalf of all kinds of Democrats is irrelevant
Joe Lieberman is of course the arch-villain in fact there is no greater villain. This has nothing to do with the fact that Sirota worked on Ned Lamont’s campaign and everything to do with truth. I am not making the argument that on Economic issues Joe has anything but a mixed record. He is however on record for repealing all of the Bush Tax Cut for the Wealth, and He also sponsored a Federal Law to allow card check for Union organizing.

Followed by obfuscation.
Note that Mr. Sirota is not willing to vilify anyone who might run for President. Also Baucus and Bayh have clearly less progressive records on Economic Issues than Senator Lieberman. So his hope for them is really his belief in the power of his movement than it is reflective of their actual records and beliefs. Also he is clearly hypocritical with respect to Hillary Clinton. She is in every respect ideologically in lock step with the Clinton Administration and an attempt to create daylight there so as to avoid calling Hillary Clinton a part of the money part is wrong. A question that I think Mr. Sirota needs to answer is whether Bill Clinton is himself part of the money party?

The point so as to make sure it is not missed is this. Democrats are better than Republican on the issues of economic justice, it is true some Democrats are more progressive than others, but on issues like raising the Minimum Wage, restoring Bush era cuts to vital service, or even regulating corporate wrong doing, Democrats generally agree. To say otherwise in an attempt to divide the party and set up the frame work for future primaries is in many ways no different from the Club for Growth who wishes to destroy all those who disagree with their extremist economic views. I may like the Progressive aims more but the tactics, don’t persuade, destroy are the same. I also think it leads down another terrible path, just as the Republicans promise their base the idea that traditional values can be re-instilled in the nation, Democrats would be wise not to promise American’s a return to an economic way of life that might simply never be coming back.

Small Differences make Big Differences.

This is my first foray on this blog into Presidential politics. It however has nothing to do with candidates, it is instead is a quick look back on how a few votes in some states may have changed the entire tenor if not the result of the election. It is time to remember back to the night of the Iowa Caucus’s Gephardt was finished, Dean was very crippled, and Kerry and Edwards were both riding high. This went into New Hampshire, were Kerry was well positioned to take advantage of his victory. Edwards however in a way stumbled in a way that made it difficult for him to recover. Edwards in fact went on to come in 4th in New Hampshire to Wesley Clark. It was an extremely close voter with only some 800 odd votes giving Clark the win. Lets imagine that instead of this tie for Third Edwards had been able to take third place by 2000 votes in a clear if not overwhelming way. 2800 odd votes, changed the dynamic of the race rather than a stumbling Block, New Hampshire might have narrowed the field to just two candidates, with Dean still permanently wounded from his Iowa debacle. In that next round of voting John Kerry was able to win five of seven states, only stumbling in John Edwards’s South Carolina. Now had the scenario played out differently, it is not unreasonable to say John Edwards need for South Carolina prevented him from playing in any of the other states that were available, this is particular note in Oklahoma, were Wesley Clark was able to edge out a roughly 1200 vote win over John Edwards, with Kerry trailing by about 6,000. It is in fact not only possible but also probable that the aforementioned improvement in New Hampshire would have won John Edwards Oklahoma. This is of particular importance, because The Clark campaign was very clear that the Oklahoma win was the reasoned they stayed in the race through the next week into Tennessee and Virginia. This mattered most in Tennessee, where Kerry got only 41% as opposed to the 49% that Edwards/Clark. Edwards would probably still have lost here, but not by the massive margin and an upset would not have been impossible. The next real contest was in Wisconsin, Where Kerry was able to edge Edwards by 6% points, and clinch the nomination. If Edwards had won in Oklahoma and lost more narrowly or even won in Tennessee. it would not have been out of the realm of possibility that Edwards could have used this gained momentum to win Wisconsin, A win in Wisconsin would have changed the dynamics of Super Tuesday, as Kerry used inevitability as his main argument throughout the rest of the campaign, pretty much from Iowa and defiantly from New Hampshire on
This is important, because it shows pretty decisively that what seems like a small difference in vote outcome can have a really big result . It also means, that you, Yes you reader, or anyone can have a real, actual, and sustained difference on a race for the Presidency. You could come up with the 3000-vote idea, either for a policy that can help make a candidate more popular, or a political program, like the College Students who came up with Limo to vote in CT 2, that probably won the election for Joe Courtney. History is decided by those who get in the game, and in America that means you.

2004 to 2006 Partisan ID Breakdown by VNS exit poll

Partisan ID is a clear sign of how a party is doing because those who Identify with a party vote for its candidates at extremely high rates and do so in almost all races. These numbers can be a window into the future. If nothing else they show either improvement or declines in states that is valuable to know. The following is VNS data by State and Party ID for 06 and 04, followed by a quick comment on what the data could mean for 08

Arizona
06
Democrat 32
Republican 41
Independent 27

04
Democrat 30
Republican 44
Independent 26

Quick Take
Five point trimming is not nothing, Pederson won Independents by 9. Maybe a Target State?

California
Party ID
06
Democrat 41
Republican 35
Independent 25

Democrat 39
Republican 33
Independent 25

Quick Take :Partisan vote more in an off Year. Nothing to see here. California Blue


Connecticut
06
Democrat 38
Republican 26
Independent 36


04
Democrat 37
Republican 30
Independent 33

Quick Take
Republican id falls, Indies not Dems mostly gain. CT electorate votes for Team Blue


Florida
06
Democrat 36
Republican 39
Independent 25

04
Democrat 37
Republican 41
Independent 23

Quick Take, No real change, Florida remains swing of all swing states, like movement in 8th and 13th to Dems , worry about why Mahoney got only 49% The Battle Never stops in Florida.


Hawaii
06
Democrat 40
Republican 23
Independent 37%

04
Democrat 40
Republican 24
Independent 36

Quick Take. Yawn. Dems win Hawaii

Illinois
06
Democrat 46
Republican 31
Independent 23

04
Democrat 39
Republican 34
Independent 27

Quick Note
Boy did Dems destroy and fast. Those are comically bad numbers for the GOP. Wished we had spent more money on Seals. 08 in bag.



Maine
06
Democrat 37
Republican 29
Independent 34

04
Democrat 31
Republican 30
Independent 38

Quick Take
As goes Maine so goes the nation, hard to imagine it even makes the target list in the next election.

Maryland
06
Democrat 50
Republican 31
Independent 19

04
Democrat 41
Republican 32
Independent 26

Quick Take,
No wonder Erlich went down. That high turnout in the primary was a great sign. Great Time to be a Maryland Democrat. So yes we in it in 08
Massachusetts
06
Democrat 42
Republican 19
Independent 39

04
Democrat 39
Republican 16
Independent 44

Quick Take
More Partisans vote in off years. Republicans improved to 19% and in process ended up with 35% in the Governor’s race as their high point in any statewide office and 5 our of 40 State Senate Seats . I am not sure there is a more dead major party anywhere in the country. Lets hope Mitt Romney can do for The National Party what he did for the State Party. Dems Win in 08.

Michigan
06
Democrat 40
Republican 33
Independent 27

04
Democrat 39
Republican 34
Independent 27

Quick Take
Two point improvement isn’t nothing. Indies still key, the dueling 56’s out of Stabenow and Granholm, after all the hang wringing [ and late million bucks from the NRSC] Make me feel very good about Michigan going into 08.
Minnesota
06
Democrat 40
Republican 36
Independent 24


04
Democrat 38
Republican 35
Independent 27

Quick Take
Partisan Vote more in off year. Dems gain a point of ID which is nice. The Senate Race and Walz and almost the entire under ticket were nicer. We should be ok in Minnesota but it is clearly still a close state, Senate Race aside.

Missouri 06
Democrat 37
Republican 39
Independent 25

Democrat 35
Republican 36
Independent 29

Quick Take
Indies save day in Senate Race. Party ID slight for Republicans. Claire won by enough. with unpopular Governor Blunt to at least put it on target list at outset.

Montana
06
Democrat 32
Republican 39
Independent 29

04
Democrat 32
Republican 39
Independent 29

Quick Take
No Movement in Partisan ID despite Beloved Governor, he won’t be able to carry Dem Pres Candidate. Montana is a Red State at least another Cycle. Tester is awesome.

Nebraska
06
Democrat 27
Republican 50
Independent 23

04
Democrat 24
Republican 53
Independent 22

Quick Take
Great Improvement though clearly not enough to change much. Theses things take time. Nebraska for whoever the Republicans nominate
Nevada
06
Democrat 33
Republican 40
Independent 27

04
Democrat 35
Republican 39
Independent 26

Quick Take
Rare back sliding in critical battle ground state, also explains high profile loses, including two house seats and governorship. Why are Colorado-Arizona, doing well while Nevada struggles? Still has to be a pick off target for 08.

New Jersey
06
Democrat 41
Republican 28
Independent 31

04
Democrat 39
Republican 31
Independent 30

Quick Take
Nice Five point bump, sealed deal in Senate race. Dem Partisans also extremely loyal to Dem nominee,allows for slight loss with Indies. Do they really want to try to pick up a Dem held Senate Seat in New Jersey? Win in 08

New Mexico
06
Democrat 41
Republican 32
Independent 27%

04
Democrat 40
Republican 33
Independent 27

Quick Take
Slight Dem increase encouraging, given extreme close nature of last two Presidential Elections there. Senate Race also interesting.
New York
06
Democrat 47
Republican 25
Independent 27

04
Democrat 45
Republican 29
Independent 26

Quick Note
Only real news is the NY Republicans are not quite as dead as Massachusetts
Republicans Dems win Presidential vote here.

North Dakota
06
Democrat 29
Republican 38
Independent 33

04
Democrat 27
Republican 41%
Independent 32

Quick Take
Improvement is good, hard to see races it will matter in near future, given Dems already hold whole Congressional Delegation. Red in 08


Ohio
06
Democrat 40
Republican 37
Independent 23

04
Democrat 35
Republican 40
Independent 25

Quick Take
Awesome Numbers, Given Kerry Win with Ohio Indies, means Dems have inside track at 08 Electoral College votes.

Pennsylvania
06
Democrat 43
Republican 38
Independent 19

04
Democrat 41
Republican 39
Independent 20

Quick Take
Very good encouraging Numbers, will Republicans want to Contest in Pennsylvania? Can Rendell-Casey be stopped? Does Jim Gerlach have a way to riggle out again, tune in next cycle for, As Pennsylvania turns.

Rhode Island
06
Democrat 38
Republican 18
Independent 44

04
Democrat 39
Republican 16
Independent 45

Quick Take
Probably just noise, in the Party ID numbers, and a party at 18 isn’t going to scary me, though it may have saved their Republican Governor. Rhode Island is blue in 08

Tennessee
06
Democrat 34
Republican 38
Independent 28

04
Democrat 32
Republican 40
Independent 28

Quick Take
Shame it didn’t push Ford across finishing line, but those numbers with our Governor’s 69 means their may still be hope for Tennessee

Texas
06
Democrat 31
Republican 41
Independent 28

Democrat 32
Republican 43
Independent 24

Quick Take
Doesn’t Change much. Texas is Red State. Is Senator Croyn as hated as Perry, can we get only challenger please.

Utah
06
Democrat 20
Republican 56
Independent 24

04
Democrat 19
Republican 58
Independent 24

Quick Take
It is Utah.

Vermont
06
Democrat 29
Republican 27
Independent 44

04
Democrat 31
Republican 27
Independent 41

Quick Take
Vermont’s Indies voted 74% for Bernie Sanders and 67% for John Kerry, so honestly Vermont loves us. Dems in 08

Virginia
06
Democrat 36
Republican 39
Independent 26

04
Democrat 35
Republican 39
Independent 26

Quick Take
No real movement. Virginia Independents were all decisive in 04 and 06 races, do they hold key to Presidency? Too tempting a target not to try.
Washington
06
Democrat 39
Republican 29
Independent 32

04
Democrat 36
Republican 32
Independent 33

Quick Take
Maybe Washington will find its way off targets list now, look its George Nethercutt, I am scared.

West Virginia
06
Democrat 51
Republican 32
Independent 16

04
Democrat 50
Republican 32
Independent 18

Quick Take
No real change, will Dems return home 30% voted for Bush in 04. Probably Red in 08 but needs to be watched.

Wisconsin
06
Democrat 39
Republican 34
Independent 27

04
Democrat 35
Republican 38
Independent 27

Quick Take
Second only in greatness to Ohio, these are great numbers that give Dems a great shot at Wisconsin in 08

Wyoming
06
Democrat 27
Republican 56
Independent 17

04
Democrat 25
Republican 53
Independent 22

Quick Take
How does this state have a Dem Governor and almost elect a Democrat to Congress. This proves not even Utah should be over looked.

Four States I wish I had data for
Colorado Arkansas New Hampshire and Iowa

Iraq, Radio, and Meta

So this will be a really short post as I just got backed from a Radio show discussing the War in Iraq. I have quite nicely gotten into a routine of being a guest on Brandeis's Political Program on the Radio on Tuesday Night's from Midnight to 1. Today's topic was Iraq. I came to the most logical conculsion that their is no good solution and that the worst is one where our soliders continue to get killed with no one being able to tell me what they are doing or why it will make Iraq better. This bring me to today's topic. Which is how Meta should this Blog be. I live a pretty political life, but that doesn't mean that my talking about what I did will be interesting. The question is how much should blog be about me, and how should it be about the issues, and elimating all elements of ego. Almost no bloggers pretend not to be people. But likewise, very few successfull blogs and no successfull political blogs are here is what I did today. What is the right balance? I am asking you my readers, if it turns out I have no readers then the point is not relevant untill I get some.
Thanks for reading
Jason

Looking through to the otherside.

So I took Thanksgiving off from Blogging on theory no one would be reading on Thanksgiving. A lot has changed Politically in a very short time. I found this clip from the National Republican Congressional Committee in case I had forgotten. "The NRCC is a political committee devoted to increasing the 231-member Republican majority in the U.S. House of Representatives." http://www.nrcc.org/about/ Now I mostly posting this because it is fun reminding myself of the changing of the guard in Congress, but it is also important to note the language of our opponents use, particularly when they are right. The goal of the NRCC when they were in power was increasing their majority. Not holding or defending, increasing their Majority. When I mentioned to my friend the interesting fact the NRCC has not updated the website, and therefore have a purpose that no longer exists. It was deemed funny,but was also met with a question that I thought the whole blog deserved an answer. The question was why would I even be visiting the Republican Website in the first place. The truth you can learn far more from watching your opponents than allies. Watch John McCain talk about social issues, and the first thing you notice is how uncomfortable he gets talking about them. He simply doesn't want to talk about them. Moving specifally to the NRCC, want to know how things are going, which challengers are they touting. Which Challengers are they no longer talking about. Patterns begin to emerge that can be extremely helpful when making decisions. When James Dobson says that a Mormom would be an unacceptable President and his involvement was key in the House Primary in Michigan 7. These cues give valuable information. That is why I quite often read what the otherside is saying, not because I would ever agree with them but because I need to know what they know to be good at this.
Links
www.rnc.org
www.nrsc.org
www.nrcc.org
www.realclearpolitics.com

The Utah Jazz are 9-1

Don’t worry this post isn’t actually about the NBA. But there is a very important lesson in this hot start by the Utah Jazz for those of us in the Democratic Party. I like a good intra-partisan brawl as much as the next guy, I have been involved in two that ended very badly for my guy and still had no problem holding my head high as a Democrat. The point is that, in the end this Democratic Party is a team. We win together, we lose together and we make things better for the American People, together. I mention the Utah Jazz because they are a team without any big starts; their players aren’t in that many T.V. ads. They aren’t a famous bunch, but so far they are playing as a team and dominating the league. James Carville is acting very much like the Stephon Marbury of the Democratic Party. He is undoubtedly a talented political operative, but is letting his mouth , instead of his game do the talking and what is worse he is trashing his teammates. We do not want to be the New York Knicks. This was a big victory for us almost two weeks ago today. Lets not spoil it by playing the blame game, or trying to grab all the credit we can. If the team wins, so will the American People. Go Fight Win.

Republicans Stay the Same [Short Posting for Today]

Republicans Stay the Same [Short Posting for Today]
Today did not bring much political news and also brought to me a massive paper for this weekend. So this post will be short. I find in greatly amusing that after a massive defeat the Republican Party in the House and Senate choose pretty much the same leadership that brought them to this defeat. The Major change was on the Senate Side were Trent Lott was brought back from the Political grave yard to be the number two spot in the Senate. I am not going to kick a guy when he is down but if Trent Lott is all the Republicans can come up with for new leadership and ideas, it will be a generally good couple of decades for Democrats. The best thing is that absolutely no one in the Republican Leadership is from anything approaching a swing district. We can take these guys.

New House Democratic Leadership and our first two endorsements

I am most certainly not going to beat the dead horse of an already finished Leadership fight. That said I am pleased with the outcome. The first woman speaker in the history of the nation is a milestone that I think it is fantastic; I also am a huge fan of the continuity that come with maintaining much of our leadership team from when we were in the minority. Almost everyone in our caucus worked hard together to create this great victory and maintaining this team well us keep the sprit that got us the majority. I also like seeing Rahm in leadership as he will be a good conduit to the DCCC and keep leadership well abreast of the political ramifications of their actions. I also have to update some of the outstanding races from yesterday. It was one win a piece with Democrats holding GA 12 and Republicans holding WY AL This leaves five races not yet called and two facing run offs. Which leads us into today’s endorsements in the upcoming Runoff’s.

Texas 23
Ciro Rodriquez,
I feel this race as being more the first race of the 2008 cycle than the last one of this election cycle. The fact is that everyone involved in this race knows the Democrats will be the majority, everyone knows that the 48% that Henry Bonilla got makes him potentially vulnerable in any race. This race is also very much about the future of Texas. There are only four Hispanic Republican Members of the House and only one Henry Bonilla who is not a Cuban from Florida. Normally, I would say it is a bad thing for parties to be so racially divided but this current Republican Party has used Hispanic Immigrants as the worst kind of political punching bags as the 69% of Hispanics who voted for Democrats in the last midterm election showed. The future of Texas will lie with it is Hispanic residents, which is why it is so important to defeat there last vestige of power in that community. Ciro Rodriquez was also a very good Congressman in his time and Henry Bonilla has a clear set of bad votes, the DCCC has put together here. http://www.dccc.org/gopauctionhouse/members/HenryBonillaTX-23.html
Check out Congressman Rodriquez website
Here http://www.cirodrodriguez.com/ and lets send him back to Congress.

Louisiana 2
We don’t need clearly corrupt Democratic Members of Congress. It is hard to believe that William Jefferson is innocent and even if he was, he looks too guilty at the moment to keep around. Karen Carter has also received the backing of most of the Democratic Establishment in Louisiana. She will make a good Congresswoman and I echo the sentiments of the Blue Majority Fund with this endorsement. http://www.actblue.com/page/bluemajority?refcode=DKosSidebar
Please check out Karen Carter as well
http://karencarterforcongress.com/

Winning theses two races will help us maintain and expand our majority.

Congressman Joe Courtney and updates on other outstanding races.

So I am having a really good day because the race in Connecticut 2 has been called and a Concession has been made by Congress Simmons, It also the reason for the delay in posting today. I didn’t want to write until I had the news. This is particularly exciting for me because the race in CT 2nd was the first one I ever worked on and it was a crushing defeat on a personal level and it feels very good to reclaim this seat. It is also exciting because Democrats were able to take two of three Republican held seats in Connecticut, meaning it was a very clear victory for us in Connecticut. I also must convey the unfortunate news, that the race in WA 8 has been called against us. There are still runoff elections that I will be covering tomorrow, with our first official endorsements at Lasting Majority. There are also currently seven other races that have not been called. Those races are New Mexico 1, North Carolina 8, Ohio 2, Ohio 15, Wyoming At Large, Georgia 12, and Florida 13. Of most importance is the race in Florida 13. Currently the Republican Vern Buchanan has a less then 400 vote lead. There is however a massive ballot error. In by far the biggest county in the district and the only county in which our candidate Christine Jennings was victorious, has an 18% under vote on just this race, that compares to a roughly 3% in all the other counties. This is almost certainly because of a computer glitch. This election as it currently is should not be allowed to stand. We need this precedent and now that we are control of the House there is no reason to allow a travesty of this magnitude to go forward. This is the DCCC press release on the matter.

"Court Grants Jennings Campaign Request to Secure Sarasota Voting System

Recount to continue, involved parties to meet to reach agreement on state audit process

Sarasota, FL – Circuit Judge Deno Economou today granted the Christine Jennings campaign’s request to secure Sarasota County’s electronic voting system used in the 2006 General Election. While not impeding the machine or manual recounts, Judge Economou did put the state audit on hold until at least Thursday afternoon to enable the interested parties to reach agreement on the process.

“We’re pleased with Judge Economou’s decision and with the cooperation of the other parties,” said Jennings attorney Jeffrey Liggio. “We want the recount to continue and are confident that the parties will be able to reach agreement on a fair audit process that includes all sides.”

The hearing resulted in three decisions by Judge Economou:

1) The electronic voting machines, voting cartridges, electronic voting systems, instruments, and data including software and firmware used in the 2006 General Election in Sarasota County will be immediately sequestered and preserved

2) The emergency petition shall be amended to add Secretary of State Sue Cobb to enable Judge Economou to exercise jurisdiction over the Secretary of State

3) The audit originally scheduled to begin Wednesday is put on hold until at least Thursday to allow the interested parties to reach agreement on parallel testing protocol and expert involvement

“Our top priority is to protect the rights and honor the intention of the voters by ensuring a process that will provide a fair, accurate and complete counting of the intended votes,” added Liggio.

FACTS ABOUT CD 13 UNDERVOTE

Undervote rate on machine ballots in Sarasota 14.87%

(i.e. Early Vote and Election Day)

Undervote rate on paper ballots in Sarasota 2.53%

(i.e. absenee ballots)

Total undervote rate in other CD 13 counties 2.52%

(Manatee, Charlotte, DeSoto, and Hardee)"


This a race and potential precendt we can not afford to ignore.
Thanks again for reading.

Raise the Minimum Wage

This is probably one of the best quickest and easiest things that the New Democratic Majority will be able to do. It has been a grand total of Nine years since there has been an increase in the Federal Minimum Wage. The cost of almost everything else has gone up, but not the wages of some of the hardest working and lowest paid people in America. Republicans in the Majority in the House have used every trick, attached every rider and done everything in their power to prevent a straight up or down vote on the minimum wage. There was also more good news on election night then just the congressional elections results. Six states had state Minimum Wage increases on their ballots and Six States passed such measures. The six states were Arizona, Nevada, Colorado, Missouri, Montana, and Ohio. This a great sign for the Democratic Party and the country because it says clearly and thoroughly that as much as Americans may believe in the free market, They also believe a hard day's work should be rewarded with enough so as to not be forced to live in poverty. They also vote this belief whenever given the chance. It is on these issues that the New House and Senate will hopefully provide a more just and fair deal for the American Worker. This is one small step in that direction but it will hopefully not be the last one.

Stay On Offense/Challenge a quater of their Caucus

It is nice to be the Majority again. One of the main reasons Democrats are back in the Majority is that they were able to put a lot more races into contention then were the Republicans. It is vitally important that we keep this playing field imbalance, so that we can continue to be in and expand our Majority. It is my contention, that at least one quarter of House Republicans remain vulnerable today. This statement is even truer if the Republicans were to nominate a true social conservative for President in 2008. Democrats need to compete as if we were behind rather than ahead 15 seats. Being in the Majority makes everything easier for us, and everything harder for them. We also may see a large group of retirements, none of which should catch us off guard. Which is why the advantage must be pressed. It is also important to note that challengers help force legislators to vote with their constituencies on the hopefully popular Democratic legislation we put forward. Rather than having to water down our legislation for Bipartisanship, we can threaten defeat to those members who go against popular sentiment in their districts. Here is my comprehensive list of seats Democrats could still gain as well, as the criteria by which the decisions were reached. Also the currently uncalled races are omitted.


Under 55
All Republican members of Congress who received 55% or of their vote must be consider vulnerable they are listed by How Democratic the District voted in 2004 Presidential race. Those that were not targeted this time receive a *
CT 4 Chris Shays
IL 10 Mark Kirk
PA 6 Jim Gerlach
NY 25 Jim Walsh
PA 15 Charlie Dent *
VA 11 Tom Davis*
OH 1 Steve Chabot
MI 9 Joe Knollenberg *
NV 3 Jon Porter
PA 3 Phil English*
MI 11 Thaddeus McCotter *
NJ 7 Mike Ferguson
IL 6 Peter Roskam
AZ 1 Rick Renzi
MI 8 Mike Rogers
MI 7 Tim Walberg*
IL 11 Jerry Weller *
CA 50 Brain Bilbray
NY 26 Tom Reynolds
NY 29 Randy Kuhl
NJ 5 Scott Garrett *
MN 6 Michelle Bachmann
NV 2 Dean Heller
VA 2 Thelma Drake
CO 4 Marilyn Musgrave
NE 2 Lee Terry *
CA 4 John Doolittle
KY 4 Geoff Davis
KY 2 Ron Lewis
IN 3 Mark Souder
ID 1 Bill Sali
NE 3 Adrian Smith

All Republicans from district Where John Kerry got 45% of the vote or More [listed by State excluding those were a Democrat held the Republican to less than 55%] Their Re-election Percent next to name
DE AL Mike Castle 57%
FL 10 Bill Young 66%
FL 18 Ileana Ros-Lehtinen 62%
FL 24 Tom Feeney 58%
IA 4 Tom Latham 57%
MI 6 Fred Upton 61%
MN 3 Jim Ramstad 65%
NJ 2 Frank LoBiondo 65 %
NJ 3 Jim Saxton 59%
NY 3 Peter King 56%
NY 13 Vito Fossella 57%
NY 23 Bob McHugh 63%
OH 3 Mike Turner 59%
OH 12 Pat Tiberi 58%
OH 14 Steve LaTourette
OH 16 Ralph Regula 59%
PA 18 Tim Murphy 58%
WI 1 Paul Ryan 63%

Others, The members of Congress who are potentially vulnerable for other reasons:

AK AL Don Young
MT AL Dennis Rehberg
CO 6 Tom Tancredo
VA 10 Frank Wolf [ possible retirement]
IL 14 Dennis Hastert[Possible retirement]
CA 26 David Dreier

Welcome

I think I am going to try blogging again. This website will be dedicated to helping Democrats remain in Control of the House and Senate.[Boy do I love typying that] It will proceed with the Goal of keeping track of all House and Senate Races and will also focus on the Race for the White House and key Governorships.
On to Democratic Victories and making America Better.